Can Trevor Lawrence Save DJ Chark?
Entering his third season in the NFL at only 24 years old, big things were expected of DJ Chark in 2020. However, the 2019 Pro Bowler did not live up to these expectations. What was the reason for the poor production? Let’s take a look at the numbers and figure it out, along with if he should be an offseason sell or buy.
The Numbers
Chark produced 706 yards on 53 receptions, while adding 5 touchdowns this season. Quite a step down from his 1,000 yard Pro Bowl performance just a year ago. Despite the drop off in overall production, Chark was able to sustain his red-zone production. He was targeted 11 times inside the 20 where produced four receptions for three touchdowns, similar to his 2019 stats of 5 receptions for 3 touchdowns. Touchdown production is key for fantasy production so seeing this sustained is a good sign. Also his 83.5 percent snap share was up from year over year. So not all the numbers were as bad as they appeared.
What the numbers actually mean
Chark’s drop off is concerning too many fantasy managers. The drop off in production is not all Chark’s fault. This season Chark’s targets carried a 23.8 off-target rate, meaning for every 10 targets at least two of them were uncatchable. Chark is a downfield threat which does not mesh well with the current quarterbacks in Jacksonville. Chark carried an average of 14.2 yards when it came to air yards per target, landing him near the top of league. That number was similar to Calvin Ridley who averaged 14.3 yards. Another stat that is misleading is his average separation yards per route. He only averaged 2.3 yards of separation per route. If we really take a look at this stat we will see that receivers who are categorized as deep threats tend to have a lower separation average. Ridley averaged a similar separation average of 2.9 yards. The two carry very similar numbers when it comes to Next-gen stats, which makes you wonder how did one finish as a WR1 and one as a WR4?
Now with the numbers from above in mind, let’s take a look at the quarterbacks in Jacksonville. This season the Jaguars started three quarterbacks, Gardner Minshew, Mike Glenanon and Jake Luton. They all combined for one victory this season, yikes! The numbers get even worse for Chark—remember he is a deep threat receiver. Not a single quarterback averaged over 7.5 air yards per attempt. This is not exactly what you want to hear as a deep threat receiver. Let’s think about it for a second—Chark averages 14.2 air yards per target, but the quarterbacks averaged less than 7.5 per attempt? The numbers don’t add up here, and here lies part of the problem with Chark’s production!
Lawrence is coming!
Fast forward to the start of 2021, the Jaguars will be strutting out a new starting lineup on offense. Trevor Lawrence is the projected first overall pick, he has produced three 3,000 yard seasons at Clemson. Lawerence also holds the school record for wins as a quarterback with 34. Now the Jaguars will need to add depth to other positions as three of their top five receivers are not under contract in 2021. They also need help at the offensive tackle position as well, both of their tackles are rated amongst the bottom of the league in pass blocking according to PFF. The good news for the Jaguars is they have over 63 million in cap space to add talent around Lawrence.
The Trevor Lawrence effect on DJ Chark will be huge! Lawrence is one of the best deep ball throwers in CFB, he has a great ability to drop the ball into tight windows. His average air yard per attempt is over 2 yards deeper than the current Jaguar quarterbacks. The pairing of Chark and Lawrence in Jacksonville will produce impressive numbers in 2021 and beyond. If you have a chance to acquire Chark or Lawrence this offseason do it! Get on the band wagon sooner than later, Chark is going to return to his Pro Bowl form next season.
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