Trending Players You Need To Know Before Week 13 Fantasy Football
Week 13: Players Trending Up & Trending Down
If you’re going to win a fantasy football championship, you have to be in tune with the latest trends. As you know, things change in the NFL so quickly. Roles are expanding for young players this time of year, injuries are creating question marks across the league, etc. Staying on top of which players are trending up and trending down at all times will ensure you make the most informed lineup and roster decisions during the most critical time of the fantasy football season. With that in mind, here are the top trending players ahead of Week 13.
More Trends: Fantasy Notebook: Snaps, Targets, Air Yards, & Routes Data From Week 12
Trending Up
Isaiah Likely
Isaiah Likely put up a fairly pedestrian stat line in his first game without Mark Andrews. He caught four passes for 40 yards while having a quiet second half against the Chargers. That was enough, though, to lead the Ravens in receiving yards. Likely ran a route on 83.3% of Lamar Jackson’s drop-backs and was second on the team with six targets which equaled out to a 20% target share. Likely finished as a TE1 in fantasy football multiple times last season when Mark Andrews missed time. With Andrews out for the rest of the season, we can expect Likely to be a weekly top-12 option.
Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson has been like my little puppet this season. He’s done everything I’ve predicted. When I begged you not to draft him in round 1, he punished you for not listening. But when he hit his lowest of lows a few weeks back, I declared it time to go buy-low on Bijan Robinson. Not only that, I predicted he would be a league-winner by season’s end.
Of course, it’s too soon to say whether that will come true or not, we have seen the uptick in usage I predicted a couple weeks ago. He is getting more work in the red zone which has resulted in three touchdowns in the last two games. He has 38 rush attempts over the last two. In the four games prior to that he totaled 36. In Week 12, Bijan had a 30% target share which was his highest since Week 1. And there’s still room for his role and usage to expand over the next six weeks.
Looking ahead to the fantasy football playoffs, the Falcons have one of the most favorable schedules for running backs. In Week 15 it’s the Panthers who have allowed the third most fantasy points to running backs. Then the Colts who have allowed the seventh most in Week 16, and the Bears in Week 17 who allow the 11th most. That’s not even including the Jets in Week 13 who give up the sixth most fantasy points to the position.
Jerome Ford
Jerome Ford may be the most consistent running back in NFL history. Literally. The dude has scored exactly 11.9 fantasy points in three consecutive games. Obviously, that won’t be enough to push us to fantasy football championships, but Ford is trending up. The Browns have seen enough of the dusty old Kareem Hunt and they tossed Pierre Strong to the side weeks ago. This is Jerome Ford’s backfield. In Week 12, Ford played a season-high 70% of the snaps. He also had a 74.5% route participation rate. While that only resulted in 14 receiving yards, Ford has 12 targets over the last two weeks and he will need to become even more involved in the passing game if Amari Cooper is forced to miss time.
Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, Ford has matchups against the Bears in Week 15, the Texans in Week 16, and the Jets in Week 17. Both the Bears and the Jets are top-10 in most fantasy points allowed to the running back position and the Texans are smack dab in the middle of the pack at No. 16. Jerome Ford is going to be a difference maker down the stretch.
Patrick Taylor
Aaron Jones is hurt again. Earlier in the season that meant AJ Dillon time. However, while Dillon did lead the backfield in Week 12, he had some company from third-year running back Patrick Taylor. Taylor only took three carries and added one target, but he did play 48% of the snaps to Dillon’s 52% and he ran 15 routes to Dillon’s 8. This could be nothing, especially when Jones returns, but it’s something worth monitoring especially as the Packers offense has been coming to life.
Keaton Mitchell
Everyone was jumping on the Keaton Mitchell bandwagon a few weeks back, thinking he was the next Devon Achane. While he was never going to be Achane, Mitchell is trending up. For the first time this season, Mitchell led the Ravens backfield in snap share (46%). He also had two targets while Gus Edwards and Justice Hill each had one. Mitchell ran two more routes than Hill and 10 more than Edwards. We know how fast and explosive he is so if his role continues to trend in this direction, he is going to be a difference maker in the fantasy football playoffs.
Jayden Reed
It’s happening. It took a little longer than we’d hoped, but Jayden Reed is coming alive. Reed has either tied for the most or outright led the Packers in targets in back-to-back weeks. He has now scored 19.4, 19.2, and 15.0 fantasy points over the last three weeks. His routes and snaps are on the rise as the team has realized he is a more talented weapon than Romeo Doubs. It’s no surprise that this has coincided with the ascension of Jordan Love as well. Reed’s role is only going to go up from here. His fantasy playoff schedule consists of the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Vikings.
D’Ernest Johnson
D’Ernest Johnson has officially taken over as the RB2 in Jacksonville. He played 39% of the snaps in Week 12 while Tank Bigsby was relegated to 3%. He also ran just two fewer routes than Travis Etienne. Johnson is now the handcuff to roster from this team.
Marquise Brown
We were buying low on Marquise Brown for weeks in anticipation of Kyler Murray’s return. After all, Brown averaged more than 10 targets per game and 18 fantasy points per game when he and Murray played together in 2022. That advice was not looking good after two weeks. However, in Week 12, Brown caught six of his 12 targets for 88 yards. His target share shot up from 12.9% and 17.2% in Murray’s first two games, to 27.3% against the Rams. Brown also led all NFL pass catchers in air yards (189) while accounting for nearly half (48.3%) of the team’s total air yards. Bigger games are coming for these two. Keep starting Hollywood Brown.
Roschon Johnson
Nobody has pounded the table harder for Roschon Johnson this season than me. The mid-season concussion was a setback but Johnson is trending back up just in time for the home stretch. The Bears completely relegated Khalil Herbert to backup duties in Week 12, while Johnson was on the field for 74% of the snaps. His previous season high was 45% back in Week 3. Johnson carried the ball 10 times to Herbert’s 6 and he caught all five of his targets (13.5% target share). It’s only one week and we still have the eventual return of D’Onta Foreman to factor in, but Roschon Johnson is trending up and needs to be added in all leagues where he was dropped.
DJ Moore
DJ Moore has been elite when Justin Fields is playing. He’s averaging over 100 yards per game, has scored six touchdowns, and is the WR3 with over 22 fantasy points per game. He is top-10 in team air yards share, yards per team pass attempt, and dominator rating (PlayerProfiler.com).
Trending Down
James Conner
It’s not full-blown panic mode for James Conner just yet, but we are on high alert. Remember a couple weeks back when the Jets surprisingly waived running back Michael Carter? Well, the Cardinals claimed him. Carter made his Arizona debut in Week 12 and he played 38% of the snaps. That knocked Conner down to a season-low 42% while Emari Demercado played the other 20%. Conner still led the backfield with five targets but Carter was on his tail with four of his own. Carter also ran 19 routes to Conner’s 15.
Some of that may have been game script and garbage time related, but we’ve been able to count on Conner getting there for us in those situations in the past. And we know the Cardinals will be playing from a deficit more often than not. Like I said, it’s not panic time, but one more week of this and we will have to seriously question Conner’s fantasy viability moving forward.
Gus Edwards
We’ve already talked about how Keaton Mitchell’s role is trending up. Naturally, that means Gus Edwards is trending down. Not only did Edwards get out-snapped by Mitchell, he was third in snaps behind Justice Hill as well. Edwards was only targeted once and he ran just four routes. There’s certainly a chance he re-emerges, but it looks like the team wants to give their explosive rookie a shot to lead the backfield which will cripple Edwards’ fantasy value.
David Montgomery
David Montgomery is officially game-script-dependent. The good news is, the Lions are really good and will have plenty of positive and neutral game-scripts. But while trailing from the get-go in Week 12, Montgomery was out-snapped by rookie Jahmyr Gibbs 71% to 27%. He did still manage a productive fantasy day with 15 carries, 71 yards, and a touchdown, but the days of being a safe bet as a top-15 option appear to be over. You’re not benching him in most cases, but he is trending in the wrong direction.
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