The Worst Pick In Every Round of 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts
The Worst Pick In Every Round: 2024 Fantasy Football
It’s so easy to hype up players during fantasy football draft season. Everyone loves everyone this time of year. But sometimes we have to reign it in and come back to earth and admit that there are some players who are either being drafted too high or who shouldn’t be drafted at all. That’s why I went round-by-round through Sleeper ADP to find the worst picks in every round of 2024 fantasy football drafts. Some of them are just a cost issue but a few are on my ‘do not draft’ list. Rather than just giving you a list of players to avoid in drafts, I also listed multiple alternative options for each round that you should consider drafting instead. You can also reference our redraft rankings to help you avoid this year’s land mines.
Round 1: Puka Nacua
This is just evidence that there are really no bad picks in the first round this year. But given this exercise, I have to choose someone and that guy is Puka Nacua. Nacua was incredible last season. Nobody, and I mean nobody, saw that coming. I don’t care if you were the biggest Puka Nacua fan in the world, you didn’t see the greatest rookie wide receiver season of all time coming. I mean, Puka Nacua himself didn’t see it coming. Puka Nacua’s mom didn’t see it coming. But it happened. However, now we have to pay a premium to draft him. And while he had an unbelievable first season, he’s still a day two pick with just one season of production under his belt. And, yes, I know I am nitpicking here, but with how good the players are at the top of the draft, we have to dig deep to make a bear case.
Nacua also did all of that while Cooper Kupp was either sidelined or playing at less than full health. By all accounts, Kupp is a full-go heading into the season and has looked as good as ever in camp. And when these two were on the field together last season, their usage was nearly identical. According to Fantasy Points Data, Nacua had a first-read target share of 28.5% while Kupp’s was at 28.4%. Meanwhile, Nacua’s production took a major hit when Kupp played versus when he was out. In games without Kupp, Nacua averaged 11.6 targets, 8.6 receptions, 108.4 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns. When they shared the field, Nacua’s numbers dipped to 8.5 targets, 5.2 receptions, 78.7 receiving yards, and 0.3 touchdowns.
Those are still excellent numbers, by the way, but the point is there is some risk in drafting Nacua at his ceiling projection. Compared to the players being drafted around his ADP, Nacua presents the most risk. We don’t even know if he’s the WR1 in his own offense. How can we justify using such a premium pick on a guy like that?
Draft Instead:
- Cooper Kupp: Kupp is available multiple rounds after Nacua is off the board. He is just two years removed from back-to-back seasons of scoring as the WR1 in fantasy points per game. He is healthy and has looked like his old self in training camp.
- Garrett Wilson: Similar ADP but without the target competition. In fact, he has basically no target competition.
Round 2: Kyren Williams
I’m old enough to remember Justin Forsett. And Zac Stacy, CJ Anderson, Peyton Hillis, Thomas Rawls. And James Robinson, Myles Gaskin, Elijah Mitchell. I could go on, but do you know what all of these guys have in common? They are all day three picks or UDFAs who were undrafted in fantasy football, had a breakout season, and were highly drafted the following season. And guess what? They all face-planted the very next season and were never heard from again.
Kyren Williams will be the next one.
Don’t take my word for it, though. Follow the actions of the Rams this offseason. They went out and spent a premium draft pick on a running back at a time when they have plenty of needs to fill across the roster. Instead, they used that pick on a national champion bellcow running back who is superior to Kyren Williams in every way. Blake Corum is bigger, stronger, more athletic, and better in pass protection. Even if he doesn’t overtake Williams, he is going to eat into his workload. That means Williams will lose a portion of the volume that helped propel his breakout season. Remember, Williams led all running backs in snap share and touches per game in 2023. That is not going to happen again in 2024.
History and common sense tell us that Kyren Williams is far too big a risk to draft with such a premium pick.
Draft Instead:
- Saquon Barkley/Jonathan Taylor: Similar ADP with more talent and far more proven track record.
- Davante Adams & Drake London: Spend your second round pick on a high-end WR
- Wait on RB: There are plenty of RBs with similar upside and safer floors that are available multiple rounds later (Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, etc)
- Blake Corum: If you want a Rams RB, just take Corum 10 rounds later
Round 3: Nico Collins
In three years, we have one productive season from Nico Collins. He’s your old school third-year breakout. It took a major quarterback upgrade for him to see any sort of fantasy relevance. That’s what concerns me about him at this price. Was his 2023 breakout a result of him being good? Or was it fueled by the arm of CJ Stroud who uplifted all the players in that offense. I say that because, in the two games that Collins missed, Noah Brown stepped into that role and put up the exact same production. Collins missed Week 10 and Week 15. In those games, Brown combined for 46.4 fantasy points. He caught seven of eight targets for 172 yards against Cincinnati, scoring as the WR6. Then he was WR9 against the Titans with eight receptions on 11 targets for 82 yards and a score. So is it the role or the player? Because last I checked, Noah Brown is a journeyman wide receiver with replacement level talent.
I’m not trying to disrespect Nico Collins. You have to have some baseline level of talent to put up that level of production. He’s a good wide receiver. My worry, though, is that he’s not good enough to rise above the target competition in the Texans offense to return value at his early third round ADP.
Tank Dell was phenomenal as a rookie. He’s back healthy and could be even better in his second season. The team also went out and traded for Stefon Diggs. Diggs has commanded 155 or more targets in four straight seasons. He’s an alpha wide receiver. He’s going to get a ton of looks. It’s going to be hard for any of those wide receivers to return value at their ADP’s given that they’re all going to siphon targets away from each other. In addition to that, the team traded for Joe Mixon in an effort to bolster the run game. More runs, of course, means fewer passes.
Again, I don’t think Nico Collins is a bust. But it’s nearly impossible to justify taking him at his current cost.
Draft Instead:
- Tank Dell: In the games that Dell and Collins played together, their numbers were nearly identical.
- Collins: 52 targets, 601 yards, five touchdowns
- Dell: 53 targets, 562 yards, six touchdowns
- Yet, Dell is available 25 picks later
- Michael Pittman, DJ Moore, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Nabers, Cooper Kupp, Mike Evans
Round 4: CJ Stroud
CJ Stroud is one of the great young quarterbacks in the NFL. He had one of the best rookie seasons of all time. However, his ADP is in the range of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Jackson and Mahomes present both a higher floor and a higher ceiling with less than a round of ADP between them and Stroud. Stroud is going 16 spots ahead of Anthony Richardson and 40 spots ahead of Kyler Murray, each of whom have QB1 overall upside and a high floor. That’s because while Stroud is fantastic, he is a pocket passer. Stroud is more in the mold of a Joe Burrow—which is great, but that’s not the type of quarterback that is typically going to be a good bet to deliver a top-5 season in fantasy football.
Drafting Stroud in the fourth round is not going to tank your season. However, it’s just an inefficient use of a premium draft pick considering the opportunity cost and the guys who are available later.
Draft Instead:
- If you want to pay up at QB, take a Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, or Lamar Jackson at an elevated cost. These guys are dual-threat quarterbacks who have had multiple seasons of elite fantasy production
- Take a cheaper, yet higher upside QB like Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, or Jayden Daniels
- If you want a pocket passer, draft Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, or Brock Purdy
- Use your fourth round pick to lock-in a starter at another position: Malik Nabers, Cooper Kupp, Devonta Smith, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, and Michael Pittman are all available in the same round
Round 5: Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen is 32 years old, on a new team, in a new offense, and playing with a rookie quarterback. Not only that, but for the first time in his career he is not the No. 1 wide receiver on his team. Allen will trail DJ Moore in the pecking order and will also have to fend off sensational rookie Rome Odunze, who the team just selected with a top-10 pick. Allen can still be productive in fantasy football and was still playing at a high level last season when he amassed more than 1,200 yards on 150 targets.
There’s no question he can still play. However, the cost to get him doesn’t align with realistic projections. All three Bears wide receivers are being drafted inside the top-6 rounds. It’s hard to see all three being able to return value with a rookie under center, even if that rookie is Caleb Williams. Then if we look at the other wide receivers in the fifth and sixth rounds, we see multiple guys who are the WR1s on their team like Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, and Terry McLaurin. Allen might not even be the No. 2 on the Bears.
Draft Instead:
- Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin
- Take your TE (there are three with a round 6 ADP): Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle
- If I want a Bears wide receiver, I would rather pay up for DJ Moore or take the discount on Rome Odunze
Round 6: D’Andre Swift
The Bears prioritized D’Andre Swift this offseason, making him the first signing of free agency. However, Swift has bounced around the league and is now on his third team in three years. He had some moments in Philadelphia last season but overall he was inefficient and unreliable in fantasy football. That was despite playing behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines.
Admittedly, he was miscast in Philly as more of a two-down grinder than the receiving weapon his skill set suggests he should be. That should come back in 2024 with the Bears. The team has made it clear they want to utilize his receiving ability and work him into a significant role in passing situations. That’s exciting. However, we’ve yet to see exactly what the full scope if his role will be. I’m not betting on him suddenly becoming a three-down bellcow and I’m not exactly comfortable using a sixth-round pick on a glorified satellite back.
There is real competition in that backfield for early down work. Both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson are threats to take a significant chunk of the first and second down action as well as carries at the goal line. That could box Swift into a limited role that is fun and certainly valuable in fantasy football, but impossible to return value at his sixth round price tag.
Draft Instead:
- Christian Kirk and Terry McLaurin: Two real life WR1s are still on the board in round six
- David Montgomery and Rhamondre Stevenson: Running backs with established roles, higher floors, and higher ceilings available in the same round
- If I’m drafting a Bears RB, I would rather take a shot late on either Roschon Johnson or Khalil Herbert. Both have all-purpose skill sets and are essentially free
Round 7: Jordan Addison
Jordan Addison had a nice rookie season with 70 receptions, 911 yards, and 10 touchdowns. However, if we go beyond the box score, we see that Addison has one of the most precarious profiles of any wide receiver inside the top-100. For one, Addison had a wildly unsustainable 14.1% touchdown rate in 2023. He caught 10 touchdowns on just 70 catches, nearly doubling his 5.8 expected touchdown total. On top of that, he benefited from nearly half a season without a healthy Justin Jefferson as well as multiple weeks without TJ Hockenson. Now Jefferson is back, Hockenson will return sometime in September or October, and Kirk Cousins has been replaced by a combination of Sam Darnold and a rookie. That’s before we even get to the risk of a suspension due to his offseason arrest.
Addison’s ADP just doesn’t make sense given the players you could draft instead. Terry McLaurin is going just five slots ahead of him. Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, and Chris Godwin are all better bets at a similar cost
Draft Instead:
- Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, Chris Godwin
- Kyler Murray: lock-in a QB with QB1 overall upside
- Ladd McConkey & Diontae Johnson are available 15+ spots later
Round 8: The ACL Bros (Jonathon Brooks & Nick Chubb)
It is wild to see both Nick Chubb and Jonathon Brooks being drafted in the single-digit rounds of fantasy drafts. Chubb is coming off a catastrophic knee injury that will likely keep him off the field until about mid-season. On top of that, he has had multiple severe knee injuries going back to his college days and now he is 28 years old. Even when he returns to the field, he is not going to be his old explosive self right away (if ever again) and will certainly not take on a bellcow workload. Maybe he can be fantasy relevant again late in the season, but that still feels like a long shot and does not justify his eighth round ADP. He should be going outside the top-120 picks.
Similarly, Panthers rookie Jonathon Brooks is coming off a November ACL tear. While he is many years you than Chubb and does not have the injury history of the Browns veteran, Brooks has lack of experience as an additional hurdle to get over on his way to a fantasy relevant role. Brooks didn’t gain a ton of experience at the college level, given he spent much of his Texas career backing up Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Additionally, he has never stepped on an NFL field. Never mind in a game environment, he has never practiced, worked out, or even participated in a walkthrough. So even once he is fully healthy and ready to play, it’s going to take some time before the coaches are comfortable enough to hand him the keys to the backfield in a workhorse role. That may never come in 2024.
The team has already said Brooks is unlikely to be ready until at least Week 3 or Week 4. In my experience, it’s likely that turns into Week 6 or 7 by the time we’re all said and done. So like Chubb, drafting Brooks in the eighth round of drafts is a catastrophic mistake that is unlikely to pay off.
Draft Instead:
- Jaylen Warren: Warren out-scored Najee Harris in 2023 and will benefit from a running back-centric Steelers offense with improved quarterback play
- Diontae Johnson: Johnson is a perfect fit with quarterback Bryce Young. He should dominate the targets in Carolina
Round 9: Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz benefited from volume and a thin receiving corps in Dallas. In his first season in Houston, he again benefited from a thin receiver room and a healthy target share. While it’s great that he is paired with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL and in an offense that should be among the tops in the league, Schultz may be in the shadows more than he’s been in a while. That’s because the Texans are getting a healthy Tank Dell back on top of adding Stefon Diggs via trade. That means, at best, Schultz will be fourth in the pecking order behind Nico Collins, Dell, and Diggs. The team also added Joe Mixon this offseason in an effort to bolster the run game. None of this will help Schultz return to the low-end tier of TE1s that he resided in last season. He’s likely to score closer to the TE15 range and certainly doesn’t have the upside to out-do his ninth round ADP.
Draft Instead:
- David Njoku: Njoku is just going 12 spots ahead of Schultz. He has much less target competition, is in an offense that is projected to increase its pass volume, and is coming off a TE6 season.
- Luke Musgrave or Pat Freiermuth: Both project similarly to Schultz with higher ceilings and are 15+ spots cheaper.
- In the ninth round: Jaylen Warren, Trey Benson, Christian Watson, Caleb Williams
Round 10: Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams made this article last year. And after averaging just two catches and 29 yards per game, Williams’ ADP has dropped just one round compared to where he was going at this time in 2023. Reports out of Lions training camp paint Williams as an improved player. But the bar has been set so low after two failed seasons. It’s hard to imagine Williams taking a leap so big that he becomes a weekly starter in fantasy football. It’s one thing for a mid or late round pick from a small school to take a couple years to get going. That makes sense. But when a top-12 pick from Alabama is bad for two straight seasons to begin his career, he’s probably just bad.
Both things can be true: Jameson Williams looks like a much improved player at training camp and Jameson Williams is never going to be a reliable fantasy asset.
Draft Instead:
- Use your 10th round pick on Tyjae Spears, Jayden Daniels, or Brian Robinson
- Other WR considerations: Courtland Sutton, Curtis Samuel, and Tyler Lockett are all being drafted within 10 picks of Jameson Williams
Who are your favorite zero rb targets in 2024? Join us on Discord and let’s discuss!
RANKINGS | REDRAFT | DYNASTY |
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