The 2021 wide receivers class is full of outliers, which one will you bet on in your upcoming rookie drafts?
- Devonta Smith
- Jaylen Waddle
- Kadarius Toney
- Rondale Moore
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- Tutu Atwell
Let’s dive in on the possibilities on why each may fail at the next level.
The Negative Correlations:
Since 2003, seven 1st round wide receivers were non-early declares. One had multiple WR1 seasons. (Devonta Smith, Kadarius Toney)
Since 2003, Nine first round wide receivers entered the draft under a 30% college dominator, again, one had a WR1 season. That player was Percy Harvin. (Jaylen Waddle, Kadarius Toney)
Since 2003, No 1st round wide receiver had a fantasy relevance while not having a breakout age (Jaylen Waddle)
Players with a breakout age of 21+ drafted in the 1st round have contributed to little fantasy relevance (Kadarius Toney)
- Craig Davis
- Henry Ruggs III
- Kevin White
- Robert Mecham
- Mike Clayton
- Anthony Gonzalez
- Kelvin Benjamin
- 2014 73/1008/9
- 2016 63/941/7
Wide receiver height and weight correlate to higher fantasy point production. This doesn’t mean that every tall prospect is a guarantee, or short players don’t produce. The typical top wide receivers do have a size advantage. I cannot remember any wide receiver that was a WR1 and below 5’9 (Rondale Moore, Tutu Atwell)
“When a wide receiver was more than 30 pounds heavier than the opposing cornerback, they averaged 1.75 fantasy points per target. The rest of the time they averaged 1.66. Though note, we should be a little more hesitant when looking at weight in wide receiver vs. cornerback matchups. Although the correlation appears high, it’s a little less practical than looking at height” – Scott Barrett of PFF (Tutu Atwell, Devonta Smith)
look at 2019 top 12 receiver sizes:
- Michael Thomas 6-3, 212 pounds
- Davante Adams 6-1, 210 pounds
- Julio Jones 6-3, 220 pounds
- Tyreek Hill 5-10, 185pounds
- DeAndre Hopkins 6-1, 205 pounds
- Kenny Golladay 6-4, 218 pounds
- Adam Theilen 6-2, 195 pounds
- Chris Godwin 6-1, 209 pounds
- JuJu Smith-Schuster 6-1, 215pounds
- Robert Woods 6-2, 190 pounds
- Amari Cooper 6-1, 211 pounds
- A.J. Brown 6-0, 226 pounds
Notice the height and weight. I’m not seeing one player close to Rondale Moore’s 5-7, 181 pounds, or Tutu Atwell’s 5-9, 149 pounds, and Devonta Smith’s 6-0, 166 pounds.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was never the top receiving option in relationship to yards on his team. According to Miguel Chapeton of ProFootballPSI, this gives him a 3% chance to become the alpha on whatever NFL team drafts him.
All of these prospects have positive success indicators for possible success at the next level
The Positive Traits and Analytics:
Devonta Smith, going to keep this one short, he’s the Heisman winner. First wide receiver to do so in 30 years. He is getting first round draft capital, 51.8 percent dominator.
Jaylen Waddle’s 2020 season started with insane production. He averaged 6/139/1 the four games before his injury. He did not participate in a pro day, therefore it’s speculation at this point, but we have all heard enough about Jaylen’s speed.
Kadarius Toney, an insane athlete who recruited to be a QB in college then converted to wide receiver, and entering the NFL with less than 4 years of experience at receiver. When he plays he fights with 32 broken tackles on 80 catches. He features a 9.01 Relative Athletic Score with a 134.5 burst score. He was a Biletnikoff Award Finalist with first round buzz.
Rondale Moore had on and off first round hype. He features a early breakout age at 18.2 years with a 30+ percent dominator and an early declare. His rookie campaign was amazing since then he played in seven games. He accomplished a 4.32 40- yard dash, 135.2 Burst Score, 10.78 Agility score resulting in a 9.32 relative athletic score on his pro-day. All of these tested above the 94th percentile.
Tutu Atwell may be undersized but he checks the box for the early breakout age of 18.9, dominator rating at 37.8 percent, and early declare. The pro day was a little disappointing but still posted a 4.39 40 yard dash. He still getting third round hype but I can see him falling.
Amon-Ra St. Brown also checks the boxes in breakout age with 18.9yrs, 33.1 percent dominator, and an early declare for the draft while evaluated at a day 2 pick.
All these prospects have indicators that they can be successful at the next level but they also demonstrate some huge red flags. I prefer to watch film to help me pick my poison following analytics. The choice will soon be yours.
