The Best Running Back Values In 2021 Fantasy Football
We are all hunting for the best bargains in our fantasy drafts. After all, there are not too many feelings better than drafting a guy in the perfect spot and watching him absolutely smash his ADP. Let’s look at the best running back values to target in our 2021 fantasy football drafts.
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Chris Carson, Seahawks
Chris Carson seems to be undervalued every year. Yet, when he’s healthy, he’s one of the most consistent running backs in fantasy football. He seems to always be producing low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers. That was no different in 2020 when he ranked 11th with 15.7 fantasy points per game. Many think of him as a between the tackles grinder, but the Seahawks trust him in an every down role. His 11.5-percent Target Share last season was 16th among all running backs. He ranked top-12 in yards per route, yards per reception, and catch rate (PlayerProfiler). There’s no other backs on that team that threaten Carson’s workload. We want the all-purpose back in the Russell Wilson offense where there’s opportunity to get on the field a lot, see red zone looks, and score points. Carson is a fantastic value in the fourth round.
Myles Gaskin, Dolphins
Everything is right in the world again. Okay, maybe not everything, but at least Myles Gaskin is back in the role we were expecting. After giving us a scare in Week 1 of the preseason where Malcolm Brown was running with the first team and Gaskin with the twos, Gaskin was back on top in Week 2. While Tua Tagovailoa was on the field, Gaskin played over 50-percent of the running back snaps, and was the only back to take snaps on third down or inside the 10-yard line. It’s clear Gaskin is back atop the depth chart (not sure he ever really left), much like he was last season. Gaskin finished the year top-10 in both snap share and opportunity share among all running backs. Even when he missed some time due to injury, he returned to assume the same heavy-usage he had been receiving prior to going out. That was despite Salvon Ahmed playing well in his absence. There’s no reason to believe the Dolphins would change their feeling about his ability to be the workhorse now.
Gaskin is a proven workhorse. During his time at the University of Washington, Gaskin ran for no less than 1,268 yards in each of his four seasons with more than 220 carries and double-digit touchdowns every year. He was quietly one of the most effective pass-catching running backs in the league in 2020. While averaging 4.7 targets per game (13.4% Target Share), Gaskin racked up 388 receiving yards, the seventh most of all running backs. He averaged 9.5 yards per reception (No.1) and his 2.08 yards per route were top-3, as was his 87.2% catch rate. He even took 18 (No.10) snaps from the slot. (PlayerProfiler) Gaskin was just as efficient on the ground. He managed to evade 50 tackles (No.16) and had a Juke Rate (evaded tackles per touch) of 27.3% (No.13). (PlayerProfiler) The Dolphins used him in the red zone a ton, as he had 42 red zone touches (4.2/game). He finished as the RB10 in fantasy scoring on a per game-basis (16.4 fantasy points per game). In his 10 games, Gaskin finished as an RB1 three times and was in the top-24 on eight occasions. When it mattered most, Gaskin delivered 169 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns while finishing fantasy championship week as the overall RB2.
Everything is looking good for Gaskin to smash his ADP in 2021. He should continue to hog the backfield touches in one of the league’s fastest ascending offenses. The offense will be both more efficient and more explosive. That means more plays, more trips to the red zone, and more scoring opportunities for a guy like Gaskin. He is an absolute steal at cost with upside to finish as an RB1.
Damien Harris, Patriots
Damien Harris is the locked-in early-down workhorse and goal line back in New England. It’s no secret that the Patriots want to run the ball. They were third in rush attempts last year and had the second-highest run rate in neutral game scripts. There’s no reason to think that will change in 2021. They have a top-five offensive line and will be playing a ton of 12-personnel with the additions of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. We expect to see Mac Jones named as the starting quarterback at some point during the season which will provide more goal line opportunities (less Cam Newton vultures). No matter who is under center, though, the Patriots will continue to pound the rock at one of the highest rates in the league.
Harris was efficient with his opportunities last year, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, despite facing a stacked front 42.3-percent of the time, the second-highest rate among all running backs (PlayerProfiler). He won’t be involved much as a pass-catcher, but that is already baked into his cost. Still, Harris is one of the last starting running backs to come off the board, making him a fantastic value.
Trey Sermon, 49ers
Like Damien Harris, Trey Sermon is one of the last starting running backs left on draft boards. Unlike Harris, though, Sermon is likely to share the backfield early in the season. The expectation is that he will eventually take over as the lead dog.
Sermon dominated at the end of his collegiate career. He racked up 331 rushing yards in the Big Ten Championship Game and 193 in the semifinals against Clemson. Sermon isn’t the fastest, but he is plenty athletic with a 79th-percentile Agility Score and 81st-percentile Burst Score (PlayerProfiler). He showed that off with 16 carries of 15 yards or more in 2020. The Niners targeted the Ohio State runner with a trade up into the third round. That’s significant. The team has shown time and time again that they can be highly productive running the football with less than top-level talents in their backfield. We’ve seen weeks where guys like Jeff Wilson, Matt Breida, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and even JaMychal Hasty have been very fantasy relevant. To me, the move to use day two capital while also trading up to do it, is telling us the Niners really like this player and have a plan to use him.
Sermon’s one-cut-and-go running style fits the San Francisco offense well. He’ll likely be the team’s grinder back with upside to be the high-volume, early-down and short-yardage guy. That role will have even more potential for fantasy points if (when) the team turns the keys to the offense over to their electric rookie quarterback. A rushing quarterback naturally opens up run lanes for the running backs. And a better, more efficient offense is always positive for a running back’s upside. The team also added guard Aaron Banks in the second round and Center Alex Mack in free agency, which will only help the running game further.
Chase Edmonds, Cardinals
The departure of Kenyan Drake left behind 270 touches. There’s no way in hell that James Conner absorbs all of those. That leaves Chase Edmonds in line for a significant workload, especially in the passing game. We know Edmonds can get it done in that area. In 2020, Edmonds had a 12.3-percent target share and ranked sixth among all running backs in total targets (68). Edmonds ran 289 routes and averaged 5.7 yards per touch (PlayerProfiler). Again, that was in a complimentary role behind Drake who was seventh in targets himself. We know Edmonds can handle a healthy workload, he did it in college. He had over 250 carries in three of his four collegiate seasons. He doesn’t have to be a bellcow back to outperform his mid-round ADP. A very reasonable 12 carries per game would put him over the 200-carry mark. Add that to his significant work in the passing game and, boom, we have a guy ready to smash his ADP.
Gus Edwards, Ravens
He was an RB3 or better in 9 of the last 11 weeks of the season last year. He’s often thought of as strictly a between the tackles grinder/short yardage guy. But he’s explosive. He broke a run of 15 yards or more on 6.2% of his runs last year which was the seventh most among all running backs. And he was efficient, averaging 5.6 yards per touch (7th) and 4.8 True Yards Per Carry (7th) (PlayerProfiler). We know the Ravens will hold a lot of leads and they want to run the ball a ton—they were No.1 in positive game script and run plays per game. Edwards is going to get red zone looks too. If anything were to happen to Dobbins, Edwards is a top-20 guy every week.
Honorable Mentions:
Zack Moss, Bills: Touchdown upside in one of the league’s best offenses. 1,000 yards and double-digit scores are within his range of outcomes.
Ty Johnson, Jets: The athletic RB in an ambiguous backfield.
