Thanksgiving Day Prop Bets
Welcome to Drew and I’s Thanksgiving prop special. Similar to our first article we are going to highlight our favorite props for each game. One unit is $5.00, all a unit does is specify how much we are wagering on that specific prop. Please gamble within your means and if you think you have a gambling problem please click here for more help.
Last week Drew went 1-1, Lamar Jackson was not active for last weeks game; making his current unit total: Even. For me, I went 2-2 thanks to Deebo surpassing his receiving total on the ground bringing my unit total to: Even.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Britt: DAVID MONTGOMERY – OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-115 – 1 Unit returns $4.34)
The three games Andy Dalton has started he is averaging 5.33 targets to the running back. David Montgomery the last two weeks has seen all of the running back targets. With Allen Robinson unlikely to start, Dalton will need to focus on Montgomery to help push the ball down the field. Having the Detroit Lions being ranked No. 28 in pass DVOA only opens up more ability for Montgomery and the Bears. The thorn in the side here is that the Bears get a different running back involved in the pass catching role.
Drew: DARNELL MOONEY – UNDER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 2 UNITS RETURNS $8.69)
Yes, Darnell Mooney is coming off a huge game against the Ravens (five receptions on 16 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown). And yes, he had a similar line (five receptions for 125 yards) in Week 4 against Detroit. But there is a trend in Mooney’s young career that I’m rolling with: in his 17 career road games, he’s never topped 50 receiving yards. In fact, he’s only topped 40 yards in four of 13 games. His yards per target drops from 8 yards at home to 5.7 yards on the road, catch rate drops from 64.9% to 51.9%, and targets from 7.2 to 6.1. Granted, Allen Robinson has always lined up with Mooney until last week. But the Lions have surrendered under 200 total receiving yards to opposing wide receivers in eight of 10 games this year. I don’t trust Mooney to duplicate his Week 11 performance, and for these reasons, I’m taking his under receiving yards prop on Thanksgiving Day.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Britt: TONY POLLARD – OVER 64.5 ALL PURPOSE YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Ezekiel Elliott suffered a lower body injury last week after ‘re-tweaking’ his knee injury mid game against the Chiefs. In ten games played, Tony Pollard has surpassed this yardage total in six of those games averaging 71.9 total yards. The last two weeks Pollard has seen an average of 13 touches and is averaging 6.3 yards per touch. The Raiders have given up an average of 165 total yards to the running back position the last three games. The Raiders are currently ranked No.15 in rush DVOA. The thorn in the side of this prop is that the Cowboys lean heavily on Elliott not giving Pollard enough chances to surpass this yardage total.
Drew: DALTON SCHULTZ – OVER 47.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.54)
Amari Cooper is on the COVID-19 list and will miss this game. CeeDee Lamb’s status (concussion) is currently in question for Thursday’s kickoff. Even with Lamb in the lineup, I like Schultz topping his receiving yards prop. For the season, Schultz is seeing a 16.1 percent target share. However, when one of Dallas’s big three (Cooper, Lamb, Michael Gallup) are inactive, his target share jumps to 18.4 percent. Excluding last week’s game where Cooper missed (his only inactive this season), Schultz trails Cooper by just one target. In the eight games where one of Dallas’s big three was inactive, Schultz has topped 50 yards in six games. Las Vegas has allowed at least 50 yards to opposing tight ends in six of their last eight. The two teams that failed are the Bears (23.8 percent TE target share; just five targets in the game) and Bengals (13.2 percent TE share). I believe Schultz’ involvement in the offense will propel him to top this Thanksgiving Day player prop.
DAK PRESCOTT – UNDER 33.5 PASS ATTEMPTS (-110 – 2 UNITS RETURNS $9.09)
Dak Prescott’s days of averaging 44.4 attempts per game circa 2020 are long gone. Dak has led Dallas to a 4-1 record in Jerry World this season, averaging just 30 pass attempts per game. Even this average is spiked due to 39 attempts against Denver in Week 8, a game where Dallas at one point trailed 30-0 with just six minutes remaining. In his four Thanksgiving Day games, Prescott has averaged 32.8 attempts per game; however, we have another outlier with a 49-attempt game against Buffalo in 2019, a 26-15 Buffalo win. This game has the largest spread of the slate in favor of Dallas, and I believe Dallas will continue their strong ATS effort this season (8-2). With a Dallas win, I’m not banking on Prescott having high volume and will gladly take this under.
Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints
Britt: JOSH ALLEN – OVER 33.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.16)
Josh Allen and the Bills have been on the ropes the last few weeks, an underrated factor here is the lack of rushing for Allen in those games. Allen is averaging 48.57 rushing yards this season, the last two weeks he’s averaged 10.5 yards. The Bills are more dynamic when Allen is able to move the ball on the ground and I believe they will ensure they get back to that part of their game plan. The Bills will be facing the No.1 rushing DVOA against the Saints. Which heightens the importance for the Bills to find Allen opportunities to use his legs. The thorn in the side of this is that the woes for the Bills continue and Allen is unable to utilize his legs in a meaningful way.
ZACK MOSS – UNDER 32.5 RUSHING YARDS (-120 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.16)
Matt Breida has emerged into the backfield as being the best producer the last two weeks. Zack Moss conversely is averaging ten touches a game and 1.64 yards per touch the last three weeks. The Saints as stated above are No.1 in rush DVOA and Moss has been the least productive running back for the Bills in the three week stretch. I don’t see the Bills giving Moss more touches than his three game average. The thorn in the side of this prop is that Moss is inactive or Moss manages to have a break away run (he has had only one this season).
DREW: TREVOR SIEMIAN – OVER 206.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
The Saints will be without Alvin Kamara and tight end Adam Trautman, who combine for almost 25 percent of the team’s target share in Trevor Siemian’s three starts. And while the Saints are 0-3 with Siemian as the starter, he has been racking up the attempts in the process. Siemian is averaging 38.3 attempts compared to 25.2 in Jameis Winston’s six full game starts. With Kamara out and Mark Ingram questionable, the Saints will be forced to pass or rely on Toney Jones. In a game likely playing catchup, I’m taking Siemian’s passing yard over on Thanksgiving.
TRE’QUAN SMITH – OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
If you’re not tuning in to Alex Johnson’s snaps, targets, air yards and trends, you’re simply missing out. But if you have been reading this great data compilation, you would know Smith has seen 19 and 20 percent target share, respectively, over the last two weeks. He’s been on the field for over 90 percent of the plays in each week. Adam Trautman saw at least a 15 percent share in each of the last four weeks; he was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. Mark Ingram has a 17.7 percent target share since Siemian replaced Winston; he’s currently questionable with a grim outlook on playing this short week. There are plenty of opportunities with Siemian’s high volume and missing Saints pieces. I think Smith continues his run as a favorite for Siemian and cashes on his receiving yard prop.
Thanksgiving Moneybag Parlay: (1 Unit returns $24.38)
A quick disclaimer, parlays are the quickest way to burn through your bankroll, but they sure are fun. In a thanksgiving twist, we give you a alternate spread parlay than a prop parlay
Detroit Lions -1
Dallas Cowboys -6.5
Buffalo Bills -2
