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The College Football Playoff semifinal kicks off in Glendale, Arizona, with the TCU Horned Frogs and Michigan Wolverines. This is TCU’s first appearance in the College Football Playoff. For Michigan, this is the second consecutive year they’ve qualified for the CFP. They lost last year’s semifinal to Georgia 34-11.
When: Saturday, December 31st @ 4:00 PM ET
Where: Glendale, Arizona
Who: TCU vs. Michigan
Spread & Total: Michigan -7.5; O/U 57.5
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Tale of the Take: TCU Horned Frogs
The TCU offense runs through a three-headed monster in quarterback Max Duggan, running back Kendre Miller, and wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Duggan was the Heisman runner-up to Caleb Williams. Miller accounts for over 50% of the team’s rushing yards (1,342) and rushing touchdowns (17). And Quentin Johnston is the lone receiver over 40 receptions and 600 receiving yards. Johnston controls 21.5% of the team’s target share, hauling in 61.6% of his targets.
In a high-powered offensive conference in the Big 12, TCU finished with the 4th best scoring defense. TCU’s 14 interceptions ranked in the top-15 in the country. The TCU defense averages 2 sacks per game. TCU does allow 4.1 YPC on the ground, and their 21 rushing touchdowns surrendered is the bottom quartile of bowl eligible teams. TCU has no major injury concerns, transfer portal entries, or opt outs or the semifinals. All systems go for the Horned Frogs.
Opt Outs: N/A
Transfer Portal Departures:
WR Caleb Medford
Players to Know:
#13 LB Dee Winters
All-Big 12 First Team selection. 65 tackles (11.5 for loss) ranks 4th on the team. 7.5 sacks leads the team.
#24 DB Josh Newton & #1 Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson
TCU has a pair of cornerbacks who were All-Big 12 First Team selections. Each had double-digit pass deflections (12 for Newton; 11 for Hodges-Tomlinson). Both have 3 interceptions, while Newton returned one for a touchdown
Tale of the Tape: Michigan Wolverines
The growth of J.J. McCarthy is a big contribution to Michigan’s success. While he doesn’t ‘wow’ with high passing volume (23.7 attempts per start), he’s been effective. 8.3 YPA, 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. 6.9% touchdown rate to a 1.0% interception rate. Blake Corum led the charge on the ground, and is unfortunately unable to go due to a knee injury. He is shut down for the season. Donovan Edwards will replace Corum as the starting Michigan back. Luckily for Edwards, he is running behind three All-Big Ten First Team offensive lineman (Zak Zinter, Olu Oluwatimi, and Trevor Keegan). Offensive tackle Ryan Hayes was selected to the All-Big Ten Second Team.
Michigan is one of three teams in FBS to allow fewer than 10 touchdowns both via the pass and on the ground. The Wolverines allowed over 20 points just three times this season, including their last two against Ohio State and Purdue in the Big Ten Championship. Michigan only allowed 15 PPG on average in conference play. Michigan’s 2.9 YPC on the ground is the 4th best mark in the country. They have forced more fumbles (10) than rushing touchdowns allowed (7). Michigan surrenders just 5.8 YPA through the air. They have intercepted opposing quarterbacks more times (12) than passing touchdowns allowed (9). Arguably the best defense in the country for the Wolverines.
Opt Outs: N/A
Injuries:
RB Blake Corum
(One of the best running backs nationally. 1,463 yards on the ground and 18 touchdowns. Was shut down for the season with a knee injury)
TE Colston Loveland
(12 receptions for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. Was injured in the Big Ten Championship game and is questionable for this matchup.)
EDGE Mark Morris
(Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year. Team high 7 sacks.
EDGE Eyabi Okie
(4 sacks. Was injured in the last play of the Big Ten Championship. Questionable for the game.)
Transfer Portal Departures:
QB Cade McNamara (Backup)
QB Alan Bowman
TE Erick All
TE Louis Hansen
DT George Rooks
Player to Know:
#7 RB Donovan Edwards
Explosive back to replace Michigan’s Corum. Averages 7.5 YPC, the 3rd best average among qualified running backs. 117 carries for 872 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns. Added 17 receptions, 192 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air
#58 DL Mazi Smith
All-Big Ten First Team selection. 46 tackles (2.5 for loss) and 1 sack.
Bowl Game Trends:
- In the last 5 years of the CFP, favorite are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS
- 3 of the 16 CFB semifinal games have been decided by single digits; 9 have been decided by 20+
Game Synopsis:
Based on previous College Football Playoff semifinal games, we’re looking at a double-digit game. But that hasn’t played into TCU’s season; six of their 13 games were decided by one-score (5-1). Michigan has been blowing teams out, though. Two of Michigan’s games were held in single-digits, both one possession games. TCU has a strong defense, but Michigan’s is elite. Michigan is elite on the offensive line, winners of the Joe Moore Award for the second consecutive year for best collective offensive lineman. This is huge for McCarthy, who could be the only positional disadvantage for Michigan in this game. I think Michigan wins this one running away.
Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Michigan
Bowl Mania Confidence: 36/43
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