It seems like every day, I see a new league starting on Twitter. I’m old enough to remember the days of standard scoring where QBs were taken in the first round! Fast-forward to 2020, and the most common format I see for dynasty startups are Superflex, Tight End Premium leagues. Have you ever seen one of these and wondered, “what is SF TE prem?” This article will provide you the answers you need to dominate your next Superflex TE Premium league!
Why join a Superflex Tight End Premium league?
Most fantasy football players have a lineup that includes a slot for a QB, around two slots for RBs, two to three slots for WRs, and a slot for a TE (if your league includes kickers or defensive slots, I am sorry, try playing without them).
Sometimes, leagues have “flex” slots where RBs, WRs, and TEs can be played. A “Superflex” slot expands the flex to include playing a QB in that slot. Why does this matter? Ever since J.J. Zachariason published his “The Late Round Quarterback” in 2012, the QB position has been extremely devalued. In his best-selling book, Zachariason points out the differences in points per game (PPG) that you get from your QB compared across the league.
In most cases, the overall QB1 gives owners an advantage and should be drafted early (think Patrick Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019). Where owners were making mistakes was continuing to draft QBs in the early to mid rounds of drafts. Zachariason found that the PPG your team gets from taking the QB7 in the fourth round isn’t that much different than the QB14 you could take much later.
Take a look at 2019 stats in a four-point per touchdown league. The QB7 was Kyler Murray scoring 344.5 points, and the QB14 was Tom Brady scoring 320.3 points, per fftoday.com. An overall point differential of 24.2 points, or 1.5 PPG. That’s not much decrease in production.
Fantasy owners started drafting QBs later and later, gobbling up the value at skill positions like RB and WR to find advantages earlier in drafts. They punted QB later and later, as it was typically a position that only required one starter per team. If the QB14 (a non QB1) is only scoring 1.5 PPG less than the QB7 (solid QB1), why would I burn an early-round pick on a QB? QBs are flashy; they are the stars of the game! Fans want to cheer them on, but taking a QB early in a single QB league is a bad practice, and would often result in a poor roster.
But Why Does The Tight End Position Receive a Premium?
TE is usually a position that is a “start one” in fantasy football. Sure, your flex spots can include a TE, but why would an owner start a TE in their flex spot? If you assume that each team in a 12 team league gets a top 12 TE (or starts in their designated TE slot), it would be bad practice to start a TE in your flex.
For example, the 2019 TE13 (first non-starter) compared to the WR37 (first non-starter WR assuming you have to start two) heavily favored starting the WR on a PPG basis. The TE13 in 2019 was Greg Olsen scoring 123.8 points. The WR37 in 2019 was Darius Slayton scoring 170.0 points (PPR scoring). Across the season, that’s nearly 3 PPG more for the WR37 than the TE13. This point differential led to a similar theory as drafting QBs late. “I have to start 1, but why draft anymore?” The scales need to be balanced to highlight the incredible game-changing abilities of players like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews.
To balance this scoring out, the TE premium was created. The “premium” comes from the additional points given to the TE position when making a reception. For example, in a TE premium league, Greg Olsen would receive an additional point or half-point per reception.
The most common premium I have seen is a half-point. When we look at Greg Olsen vs. Darius Slayton last year applying the 1.5 points per reception for Olsen, we can see that the PPG gap is closed. In half-point TE premium Olsen scored 149.7 points, or only 1.2 PPG less than Darius Slayton. Much like the difference between the QB7 and QB14, this premium made the TE position a more viable starter in flex spots for owners.
How Should I Construct my Supeflex Tight End Team?
The most significant initial change with the SF format is that QB becomes king. If you have never played in a SF league before, this may be a shock to your system. You will see the likes of Mahomes and Lamar Jackson taken in the first round.
Do not be surprised if Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson go at the end of the first round or beginning of the second round. Every owner should be starting a QB in their SF slot (QBs score the highest PPG of any player you’d play in your SF), and in a 12 team league, that means every team should have at least two starting QBs, and eight teams should have a third starting QB.
Who Should I Target?
So when should you draft a QB? It is my personal opinion that each SF draft is unique. If your league does not value QB, you may be able to wait. Overall, I want to get a piece for my roster that I can set and forget for the next 10 seasons. I typically draft a QB in either the first or second round of these startups to ensure one of my “big 6” (Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Watson, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson).
With my second QB selection, I typically aim for a high-end QB2 type, or someone I could reliably start every week. For 2020, that list includes QBs like Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, and Kirk Cousins. Think of it like this: who are the QBs I would be picking up in free agency of my single QB league? These QBs pair up with my third QB, who, for me, is a young up and comer.
For 2020, QBs like Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins, or Justin Herbert. This gives me the comfortability of having a “set it and forget it” QB while playing the best matchups with my QB2 and QB3. Notice my QB3 is a higher ceiling, a younger player who could turn into a superstar and unseat my rosters QB2. I always shoot for the floor with my QB2 and the ceiling for my QB3.
Try to Corner the Market
Another valid strategy is to corner the market on QBs. I have been in leagues where a team drafted four straight QBs to begin the draft. That owner now owns 1/8th of the starting QBs in the NFL. That means only five teams in the league have a third starting QB.
During bye weeks, these owners will lose out on significant points by starting a non-QB in their SF slot. By taking four QBs to open the draft, this owner is hoping that the teams who only have two QBs come calling and offer a significant skill position player to clean up their QB3 position.
I have seen this strategy fail miserably. If no one wants to trade for a QB, the team that took four QBs to open the draft can only start two at a time and missed out on grabbing key skill players that they can start more of. Engage in this strategy at your own risk. Read the room, does it appear QB value is high? Did you miss on a tier of skill player you want, but can take a QB and flip him into skill position value due to the demand for QB?
I cannot give you an exact round to take your QBs. I have my strategy of taking a QB in the first or second round. However, I cannot hammer out when you should take your next QB. It goes back to reading the room. How many QBs have gone? Who would be available at your next pick? Are you comfortable with that QB? SF is about riding the wave when it comes to QB selections.
You don’t want to be the owner who is at the end of QB run, and your QB1 is Derek Carr. Conversely, you don’t want to be the owner punting on skill position players while being the only owner drafting QBs. It’s a fickle process, but nailing these runs during drafts can give you an edge immediately.
Which Players Get a Boost in This Format?
Just because it is a TE premium league, does not mean every TE is more valuable. You have to look at how that TE scores points. Is that TE a red-zone animal who scores most of his points from TDs? Or is that TE a receptions player. I look back at one of the most impressive TE seasons in a long time, which was in 2015 by Tyler Eifert. Eifert scored 13 TDs in that season. Eifert only had 52 receptions during that season. In regular PPR, Eifert finished as the TE7, scoring 191.5 points (per fftoday.com). That’s pretty good, right? It could be better. If you gave Eifert 1.5 points per reception, he would have totaled 217.5 points.
Without giving the rest of the NFL the TE bonus, Eifert still would not have finished inside the top five of TEs in 2015. TEs like George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, and Darren Waller should be prioritized in a TE premium league. Fade the TEs who make a living in the red-zone and aren’t involved between the 20’s.
That is probably the biggest mistake I see in these types of drafts. TEs go higher, but not every TE excels at receptions. I love Mark Andrews but sees much less volume than Kittle, Kelce, Ertz, and Waller. Andrews finished as the TE5 in 2019, largely due to his TD numbers. Of those five TEs, Andrews was the only one to exceed six TDs. Andrews was at least 20 receptions behind Kittle, Kelce, Ertz, and Waller. This is not a “don’t draft Mark Andrews” bit; I think he will see more volume this coming season and should be around 80 receptions in 2020. Just keep in mind that TE premium should prioritize TEs who catch a lot of passes, not necessarily those who score TDs.
So what changes with the draft strategy? The elite TEs put numbers up that compares nicely to the most elite WRs. For example, Zach Ertz finished 2019 as the TE4 in normal PPR, scoring 215.6 points. In 1.5 per reception leagues, Ertz’s points jump to 259.6 (per fftoday.com). 259.6 points would put Ertz as the WR7 just behind Keenan Allen (261.5 points) and ahead of Allen Robinson (254.9 points).
Everyone wants to get a top-12 TE, but as WRs and RBs start to go, keep an eye on where your TE2 would have finished as a WR. When we look at who to play in your flex, we can accurately compare across positions. Like when we used Greg Olsen vs. Darius Slayton earlier, you may be able to find a solid flex later in the draft by selecting a TE in these types of leagues.
Hopefully, this article opened your eyes to my favorite format of fantasy football, and the strategy I employ during these drafts. Feel free to reach out to me with questions. I would love to help!
Make sure to follow Yards Per Fantasy draft analyst @ffbigcat
