We’ve finally made it to playoff football and now welcome the biggest wild card round in NFL history. We now have six games spanning three days, starting this afternoon with the Raiders taking on the Bengals. Let’s look at some Super Wild Card Weekend prop bets before the fun begins!
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DEREK CARR: UNDER 252.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
In a small sample size, Derek Carr has not performed well in wintery conditions. The former Fresno State product has played just five games in his NFL career where the kickoff temperature was below 37 degrees. The Raiders have struggled in those games, going 0-5 and failing to top 17 points in any contests. Carr has thrown for over 222 passing yards just once in those five, and never threw for multiple scores (his current touchdown prop is 1.5 juiced towards the ‘under’, -155). As of Friday evening, the expected temperature in Cincinnati is 30 degrees. I’m on the under for Derek Carr’s Super Wild Card Weekend prop bets.
JOSH ALLEN: UNDER 238.5 PASSING YARDS (-120 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.16)
The 2021 trilogy finale between the Patriots and Bills appears to be a cold one, but better than the first meeting in early December. However, Josh Allen has struggled at home against the Patriots in his career. While it is only a three-game sample size, Allen is 39 for 76 (51.3%) for 452 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. His career high in Orchard Park against the Patriots is 154 passing yards. At home this year, Allen completed 59.8% of his passes (67.1% on the road) and averaged 6.1 per attempt (7.6 on the road). I’m banking on another low scoring game between the division rivals as Allen falls short of his Super Wild Card Weekend prop bets.
ROB GRONKOWSKI: OVER 58.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
Gronkowski is atop of Derek Helm’s Wild Card DraftKings Breakdown, and I couldn’t agree more. Since returning in Week 11, Gronkowski has been a focal point in the passing game. He averaged 8.4 targets per game over the last eight weeks and 9.2 yards per target. Plus, he faces one of the best matchups for tight ends against the Eagles. Philadelphia has surrendered the most receptions (107) and touchdowns (14) to opposing tight ends. The Eagles rank sixth in yards allowed (60.9/gm) to opposing tight ends. With Gronkowski and Evans as Brady’s most reliable passing options, I believe he’ll rely heavily on both. Take Gronkowski’s receiving yards prop for the Super Wild Card Weekend prop bets.
JIMMY GAROPPOLO: UNDER 250.5 PASSING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
We’ve seen Jimmy Garoppolo clear this number with ease in four of the last five games but could see Shanahan resort to his playoff ways. With San Francisco, Garoppolo has played three playoff games and averaged 19.3 attempts per game. The pass/run split in those three games was 62/111 (35.8%/64.2%). Yes, one was a run-heavy game where Garoppolo attempted just eight passes against Green Bay. Only one of three games was in favor of the pass, a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs that saw Garoppolo drop back 32 times compared to 22 total team rushes. We could see a heavy dose of Elijah Mitchell, who’s current rushing prop is the highest across the six games at 82.5 yards. I’m on Garoppolo’s under for Super Wild Card Weekend prop bets.
PATRICK MAHOMES: UNDER .5 INTERCEPTIONS (-140 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $3.57)
While this is juiced towards the under, I can’t help but not take this Mahomes’ prop. Everyone recalls earlier in the season when the Chiefs were struggling and Mahomes was amongst the interception leaders for quarterbacks. Over the last month, Mahomes’ interception rate is just .56% (one interception on 180 attempts). In AFC playoff appearances, he has zero interceptions on 210 attempts. Mahomes has dominated the Steelers in his two starts, throwing nine touchdowns with zero interceptions on 58 pass attempts for a 148.2 quarterback rating. I’m likely jinxing all of this, but until Mahomes shows vulnerability in January football, I’ll gladly take this under.
RONDALE MOORE: UNDER 16.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115 – 1 UNIT RETURNS $4.34)
I tend to stay away from props that can be hit on one play, but I can’t pass this up on Rondale Moore. Since Kyler Murray returned from injury in Week 13, Moore saw just nine targets over a three-game span. He’s also failed to record over 10 receiving yards in each of the three games. His offensive snap percentage in that span is just 37%. Currently, Moore has the fifth lowest receiving yard prop for the Cardinals. And we don’t have any props for James Conner or Chase Edmonds. I’ll bank on this trend continuing for Moore in his playoff debut, taking the receiving yards under for the Super Wild Card Weekend finale.
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