Kicker Problems? Not anymore
Kickers. Probably the most controversial position in fantasy football. One day your kicker gets you 20 points and pulls you from the jaws of defeat; the next week he only gets you two. Sure, some kickers are better than others, but the position is so volatile that it seems impossible to pick the best ones every week. And unless you drafted Justin Tucker, you’re stuck looking at the waiver wire every week for the best options. Luckily for you, I have the solution to all your kicking woes.
Introducing my new Fantasy Kicking Model!
Using machine learning, the model projects point totals for a kicker on any given week along with a range of points that the kicker is most likely to score within. This model factors in offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as FGOE, my own personal kicker evaluation statistic. FGOE, or Field Goals Above Expectation, is a metric that provides more context to each field goal, making it easier to evaluate kickers.
Using these projections, I ran 10000 simulations and reported the number of times each kicker finished in the top 12, top 5, and number one overall that week. Each week I’ll report the top 16 projected kickers along with a few notable exclusions outside the top 16 that you should avoid.
Kickers to Stream In Week 12
Zane Gonzalez
If you don’t want to play Zane Gonzalez, I totally understand. In the past 3 weeks, Gonzalez has had a 6 point game and a 3 point game. I am here to tell you this will not be one of those weeks. The Arizona offense is a steamroller coming straight towards this unsuspecting Patriots D’. Sure, its Belichick and he always has a trick or two up his sleeve. But with the lack of talent on D for New England, I’d be willing to bet that Arizona makes its way deep down the field more often than not. Pencil Gonzales in for at least 9 points this week.
Jason Myers
I’m sure you’re getting as tired of reading about Jason Myers as I am of writing about him. However, as long as he remains rostered in only 19% of leagues, he’ll find his way onto this list. Myers won’t kick 5 or 6 field goals in a game this season, but the Seattle offense is good enough to consistently move down the field, getting Myers points on most possessions.
Kickers to Avoid
Brandon McManus
Just a few weeks ago McManus was atop the list of kickers to stream. Oh how the tables have turned. This fall from grace has little to do with the skill of McManus himself, but rather the inability of the offense to do literally anything these past couple weeks. The Denver offense has been absolutely atrocious this year and is going up against one of the premier defenses of the NFL in New Orleans. Oh, and did I mention they have no healthy quarterbacks on the roster? Yeah, it’s probably in your best interests to leave McManus on the waiver wire this week.
Stephen Gostkowski
Gostkowski is by no means a top kicker this season. However, his recent 12 point performance has him on this list a precaution to any players hastily adding kickers from the wire. Gostkowski, for all of his clout, has the fourth lowest projected points this week and should not be streamed against a stingy Colts defense.
