Kicker Problems? Not anymore
Kickers. Probably the most controversial position in fantasy football. One day your kicker gets you 20 points and pulls you from the jaws of defeat; the next week he only gets you two. Sure, some kickers are better than others, but the position is so volatile that it seems impossible to pick the best ones every week. And unless you drafted Justin Tucker, you’re stuck looking at the waiver wire every week for the best options. Luckily for you, I have the solution to all your kicking woes.
Introducing my new Fantasy Kicking Model!
Using machine learning, the model projects point totals for a kicker on any given week along with a range of points that the kicker is most likely to score within. This model factors in offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as FGOE, my own personal kicker evaluation statistic. FGOE, or Field Goals Above Expectation, is a metric that provides more context to each field goal, making it easier to evaluate kickers.
Using these projections, I ran 10,000 simulations and reported the number of times each kicker finished in the top 12, top 5, and number one overall that week. Each week I’ll report the top 16 projected kickers along with a few notable exclusions outside the top 16 that you should avoid.
Kickers to Stream In Week 11
Jason Myers
Unfortunately, (or fortunately, depending on how many points you need), Jason Myers will have already played by the time this article is published. Myers scored 9 points, a score that will likely put him in the top-12, but on the lower end of expected outcomes.
Ka’imi Fairbairn
After last week’s low scoring debacle, which left him with zero fantasy points, Fairbairn will almost certainly be on the waiver wire this week. Fairbairn and the Texans face the struggling Patriots defense that has done a complete heel turn from last year’s dominant showing. Points should come easy and often for this offense, leading to a top fantasy week from Fairbairn.
Chris Boswell
Despite only one week with double digit points, The Wizard of Boz enters this week as the 5th ranked kicker. A porous Jags defense, combined with an above average offense should lead to multiple scoring drives for Boswell. One thing you have to take into account is the Steelers propensity to go for two, but that shouldn’t deter you from starting Boswell this week.
Kickers to Avoid
Ryan Succop
Ryan Succop has performed so well recently, he may already be picked up by someone in your league. And Succop may prove me wrong and pop off for another 17 point outing this week. However, the Buccaneers offense has proven volatile at times, a factor worth noting as they play a top 7 defense in the LA Rams this week. If the defense is able to create turnovers, giving the Bucs good field position, Succop could be in for a big day. Otherwise, it’s safer to just go in a different direction.
Joey Slye
Slye isn’t the absolute worst play this week. He’s going up against a bad defense in Detroit and theoretically should be able to put up some points. Sadly for Slye’s prospects, Teddy Bridgewater is a game-time decision, tossing this offense up in the air. If P.J Walker is forced to suit up, this offense could be in for a rough game, bringing Slye down with them. If Teddy is back and FULLY HEALTHY, then Slye could have a decent game. I wouldn’t bet on it though.
