Spotting a Top Tight End
Every year there’s a debate about tight ends. Is it worth taking the elite guys, are there middle round values that are going to hit it big, who are the later round dart throws that are this year’s value picks?
Inspired by something I heard on the CBS Fantasy Football Today podcast, I took a closer look at the top 10 Tight Ends from the last 5 seasons (PPR scoring) to see what I could learn.
The Drop Off
Before I get to that, it’s worth understanding the drop off in points between each finish.
As you’d expect, the top 2 or 3 Tight Ends have a significant advantage over TE12 but once you get outside of the top 5, the drop off to TE12 starts to reduce significantly and in a ‘normal’ league you’d think you can find a tight end on the waiver wire that can get you close to TE12 points each week.
So the advantage comes from trying to find a tight end with the potential to be top 5 at the position.
What to look for
Looking at top 10 tight ends from 2016 to 2020, we can see some specific traits that can help predict that top 5 potential.
Firstly, only 2020 Robert Tonyan finished in the top 5 without being the first or second most targeted player on his team. That was all about touchdowns and while a high touchdown season can propel a tight end in to the top echelons, it’s not predicable or trustable.
Secondly, most of the top 5 tight ends had over 100 targets. There were a couple of players who fell short of this but only just, with at least 95. So to be the second target on the team and get over 100 targets, the team needs to have at least average passing volume. If the team has low passing volume then the second target on the team would struggle to hit that 100 target mark, they’d need to be the number one target in that case (see 2019 Mark Andrews).
As we make our way down through TE6 to TE9 finishes, we can still see some players who were the second target on their team but also plenty of third targets. Again though, to finish in this range as third target on the team they need to be on an offense with good passing volume to hit that 80 target mark. If we can predict a player in this range, then a bit of extra touchdown luck might be enough to get them in to that next bracket.
The players
With all that in mind, let’s look at each team’s TE1 and which category they fit in to, to try and identify those players who have a shot at a top 5 finish.
Top target on their team
Kansas City Chiefs
- TE1 = Travis Kelce
- Competition for targets = Hill, Robinson, Pringle, Hardman, Edwards-Helaire
- Last Season TE1 = 1st target on team
- Likelihood of being top 2 target = Guaranteed
- Team passing volume = Very High
Las Vegas Raiders
- TE1 = Darren Waller
- Competition for targets = Ruggs, Brown, Renfrow, Snead, Edwards
- Last Season TE1 = 1st target on team
- Likelihood of being top 2 target = Guaranteed
- Team passing volume = Average
San Francisco 49ers
- TE1 = George Kittle
- Competition for targets = Aiyuk, Samuel, Sanu
- Last Season TE1 = 3rd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 2 target = Guaranteed
- Team passing volume = Average
Top 2 target on their team + good team pass volume
Atlanta Falcons
- TE1 = Kyle Pitts
- Competition for targets = Ridley, Hurst, Gage
- Last season TE1 = 3rd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 2 target = Highly Likely
- Team passing volume = Very High
Detroit Lions
- TE1 = TJ Hockenson
- Competition for targets = Perriman, Williams, St Brown, Cephus, Swift
- Last Season TE1 = 2nd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 2 target = Highly Likely
- Team passing volume = Average
Top 2 target on their team but low passing volume
Baltimore Ravens
- TE1 = Mark Andrews
- Competition for targets = Brown, Bateman, Watkins
- Last season TE1 = 2nd target on team
- Likelihood of being top target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Very Low
Top 3 target with top 2 potential
Philadelphia Eagles
- TE1 = Dallas Goedert
- Competition for targets = Smith, Reagor, Fulgham, Ward, Sanders
- Last Season TE1 = 2nd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Likely; likelihood of being top 2 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = High
Chicago Bears
- TE1 = Cole Kmet
- Competition for targets = Robinson, Mooney, Miller, Graham, Montgomery
- Last Season TE1 = 4th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Likely; likelihood of being top 2 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = High
Top 3 target + good team passing volume
Denver Broncos
- TE1 = Noah Fant
- Competition for targets = Sutton, Jeudy, Hamler
- Last Season TE1 = 2nd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Likely
- Team passing volume = Average
Los Angeles Rams
- TE1 = Tyler Higbee
- Competition for targets = Woods, Kupp, Jefferson, Jackson, Atwell, Akers
- Last Season TE1 = 4th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Likely
- Team passing volume = High
Top 3 target but low team passing volume
Minnesota Vikings
- TE1 = Irv Smith Jr
- Competition for targets = Jefferson, Thielen, Cook, Conklin
- Last Season TE1 = 4th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Likely
- Team passing volume = Low
New Orleans Saints
- TE1 = Adam Trautman
- Competition for targets = Thomas, Smith, Kamara
- Last Season TE1 = 3rd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Likely
- Team passing volume = Low
Cleveland Browns
- TE1 = Austin Hooper
- Competition for targets = Beckham Jr, Landry, Hunt, Chubb
- Last Season TE1 = 2nd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Likely
- Team passing volume = Low
Tennessee Titans
- TE1 = Anthony Firkser
- Competition for targets = Brown, Jones, Reynolds
- Last Season TE1 = 3rd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Likely
- Team passing volume = Low
Potential for top 3 target
Green Bay Packers
- TE1 = Robert Tonyan
- Competition for targets = Adams, Valdez-Scantling, Lazard, Rodgers, Jones
- Last Season TE1 = 4th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Low
Houston Texans
- TE1 = Jordan Akins
- Competition for targets = Cooks, Cobb, Collins, Conley, Johnson
- Last Season TE1 = 3rd on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Average
Los Angeles Chargers
- TE1 = Jared Cook
- Competition for targets = Allen, Williams, Guyton, Ekeler
- Last Season TE1 = 2nd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Very High
Miami Dolphins
- TE1 = Mike Gesicki
- Competition for Targets = Parker, Fuller, Waddle, Williams, Bowden, Gaskin
- Last Season TE1 = 2nd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Average
New England Patriots
- TE1 = Jonnu Smith / Hunter Henry
- Competition for targets = Meyers, Agholor, Bourne, Harry, each other, White
- Last Season TE1 = 7th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Very Low
New York Giants
- TE1 = Evan Engram
- Competition for targets = Golladay, Shepard, Slayton, Rudolph, Toney, Barkley
- Last Season TE1 = 1st target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Low
Seattle Seahawks
- TE1 = Gerald Everett
- Competition for targets = Lockett, Metcalf, Swain, Eskridge, Dissly, Carson
- Last Season TE1 = 5th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = Average
Washington Football Team
- TE1 = Logan Thomas
- Competition for targets = Mclaurin, Samuel, Brown, Humphries, Gibson, McKissic
- Last Season TE1 = 3rd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Possible
- Team passing volume = High
Unlikely to be top 3 target but on very high passing volume team
Pittsburgh Steelers
- TE1 = Eric Ebron
- Competition for targets = Johnson, Smith-Schuster, Claypool, Harris
- Last Season TE1 = 4th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Unlikely
- Team passing volume = Very High
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- TE1 = Rob Gronkowski
- Competition for targets = Godwin, Evans, Brown, Howard
- Last Season TE1 = 3rd target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Unlikely
- Team passing volume = Very High
Dallas Cowboys
- TE1 = Blake Jarwin
- Competition for targets = Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, Elliott
- Last Season TE1 = 4th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Unlikely
- Team passing volume = Very High
Buffalo Bills
- TE1 = Dawson Knox
- Competition for targets = Diggs, Sanders, Beasley, Davis, Singletary
- Last Season TE1 = 6th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Unlikely
- Team passing volume = High
Highly Unlikely to be top 3 target on team
Cincinnati Bengals
- TE1 = Drew Sample
- Competition for targets = Chase, Higgins, Burrow, Mixon
- Last Season TE1 = 5th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Unlikely
- Team passing volume = High
Arizona Cardinals
- TE1 = Maxx Williams
- Competition for targets = Hopkins, Kirk, Green, Moore, Edmonds
- Last season TE1 = 5th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Unlikely
- Team passing volume = High
Carolina Panthers
- TE1 = Dan Arnold
- Competition for targets = Moore, Anderson, McCaffrey, Marshall
- Last Season TE1 = 5th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Unlikely
- Team passing volume = Average
Indianapolis Colts
- TE1 = Jack Doyle
- Competition for targets = Hilton, Pittman, Campbell, Pascal, Hines, Allie-Cox
- Last Season TE1 = 5th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Unlikely
- Team passing volume = Average
Jacksonville Jaguars
- TE1 = Chris Manhertz
- Competition for targets = Chark, Jones, Shenault, Etienne
- Last Season TE1 = 6th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Unlikely
- Team passing volume = High
New York Jets
- TE1 = Chris Herndon
- Competition for targets = Davis, Moore, Crowder, Moore, Cole
- Last Season TE1 = 4th target on team
- Likelihood of being top 3 target = Highly Unlikely
- Team passing volume = Low
Summary
You could easily consider this list as rankings.
Kelce, Waller and Kittle are a lock.
Hockenson and Pitts are top 2 targets on offenses with enough passing volume, and Andrews has a shot to be his team’s number one target but with low team passing volume hurting him.
Kmet and Goedert are likely top 3 targets with a shot at being top 2 on their teams, while Fant and Higbee are top 3 options on teams with good passing volume.
Then we get in to murky waters with Smith Jr, Trautman, Hooper and Firkser all likely top 3 targets but on low passing volume teams which will make it hard for them to make that leap.
Tonyan, Akins, Cook, Gesicki, J Smith, Henry, Engram, Everett and Thomas find themselves in a big group of players who have potential to be a top 3 target but need some things to open up for them to be a reliable fantasy asset. And then there is Ebron, Gronkowski, Jarwin and Knox who aren’t in the top 3 on their teams but are in teams that pass so much that the 4th option might just get a useful workload.
Finally, if you’re looking at Sample, Williams, Arnold, Doyle, Manhertz or Herndon then I’m afraid it’s too late and you can’t be saved at this point.
