Ryan Tannehill has officially caught our attention with the Titans bringing in Julio Jones. Tannehill has been kind of a hidden gem in fantasy football, but that’s all about to change this year. This article is meant to highlight all of the reasons we should consider Ryan Tannehill as a QB1 in fantasy football. The best owners have already grabbed Tannehill as their QB2, and now have a solid QB/super flex or trade piece. The rest of us will now have to strategically get Tannehill at his new ADP.
Tennessee Growth
Prior to his current tenure with the Titans, Ryan Tannehill was a mess in Miami. Tannehill was asked to pass the ball 562 times on average for the 4-16 game seasons he played for the Dolphins. Tannehill’s averages across 6 seasons in Miami were 20.5 TDs, 3,405 yards (yds) and 12.5 interceptions (ints). On 2nd glance, Tannehill wasn’t terrible; he was just asked to do too much in Adam Gase’s crappy offense.
Fast forward to his Tennessee tenure and we have a whole new outlook on Ryan Tannehill. Since his arrival, the 32-year-old quarterback has been incredibly efficient, averaging 3,280 yds, 27.5 TDs, and 6.5 ints. The only stat more impressive than his 7 TD increase was his 6 ints decrease, showing that Tannehill is making fewer mistakes with the ball. Tannehill posted a career best quarterback rating (QBR) of 78.6 last year ranking 4th in the league and topping his previous career best of 64.2 in 2019. One more shocking example of how well Tannehill played last year was that he was one of two quarterbacks to finish top 10 in QB fantasy points scored, while being on an offense that ran the ball (50.5 percent) more than they passed (49.5 percent). Finishing QB7 last year was a testament to how far Tannehill has come with the Titans.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference
| Metric (seasonal averages) | W/Miami | W/Tennessee |
| Seasons | 6 | 2 |
| Completion Percentage | 62.8 | 67.3 |
| Yards | 3,405 | 3280 |
| Touchdowns | 20.5 | 27.5 |
| Interceptions | 12.5 | 6.5 |
| Best QBR | 59.3 | 78.3 |
Efficiency
Lets deep dive into how efficient Ryan Tannehill has been the past two years. Let’s talk about his true completion rate (94.9), which factors out dropped balls and throwaways from a quarterback’s completion percentage. Tannehill ranked 3rd in the league and the biggest explanation for that would be his catchable pass rate (79.4), indicating that he was getting the football in the vicinity of his receivers. Adding Julio Jones this year means Tannehill should have no problem completing more passes than ever before in 2021. This inevitably will lead to more fantasy points for Tannehill owners.
I want to draw attention to Ryan Tannehill’s 68 pass attempts in the red zone, putting up 335 yds (ranked 4th in 2020), 26 TDs (also 4th) and only two ints. Tannehill put up those stats while posting a 63.2 competition percentage, 6th in the league among players who had at least 50 attempts. That is damn good, and factor in the fact that this team is run heavy and you have a QB that makes the most of his opportunities. Tannehill is a guy who averaged 21.8 fantasy points per game on a team that ran 31.8 passing plays on average ranking 30th out of 32 teams. If the Titans increase their passing down by even a percent or two, Tannehill jumps into the top 5 of quarterbacks in fantasy football.
Supporting Cast
Derrick Henry’s presence on the ground has made him an excellent complimentary piece to Ryan Tannehill’s efficient passing attack. Leading the league in rushing yds (2,027), evaded tackles (112), breakaway runs (21) and yards created (997). These stats show how unstoppable Henry was last year. Henry was so good that it didn’t matter how defense’s approached him. When the box was stacked with 8 defenders, Henry averaged 5 yds/carry (y/c) while in base sets (7 defenders in the box) he averaged 5.6 y/c. Essentially this year it should be interesting as defenses will have to deal with Henry in base sets, or have to cover the Jones-Brown duo in stacked sets.
AJ Brown became an elite wide receiver for the Tennessee Titans in 2020. Last year he was targeted 106 times, which was 25.8 percent of the Titans target share. Brown was impressive with the ball in his hands averaging 6.1 yards after the catch (YAC). The addition of Julio Jones gives AJ Brown the opportunity to become a deep ball threat and rack up the YAC this upcoming year. I suspect that Tannehill will be comfortable knowing Brown or Julio will be in single coverage.
Addition of Julio Jones
Prior to missing 7 games last year, Julio Jones had missed 4 games since 2014. In that span he averaged 161.6 targets a season, with 103.8 recs, 1564 yds, and 6.16 TDs. Last year he had 51 recs, 771 yds and 3 TDs in 9 games on 68 targets (tgts). The 16 game pace for Julio was 120 tgts, 90 recs, 1370 yds and 5 TDs. The point of those projected totals were to show that Julio hadn’t lost a step he was just injured last season. A couple things that stood out in his shortened season was his career high catch percentage (75%) and his average depth of target (ADOT) dropping to 11.2. This sounds like a mixture for an excellent “go to guy” in the Titans offense.
Obviously the issue is that the Titans offense is nowhere near as pass happy as the Falcons. The departures of Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis did free up 150+ tgts. Plus the lack of firepower behind Jones and Brown should guarantee Julio gets at least 90-100 tgts. Another thing to consider is Julio Jones coming to town should shift the offense from their Derrick Henry dependence to a more receiver-friendly offense. Tannehill should confidently audible plays when the box is stacked, and become more comfortable with play-action. Last year Tannehill had a play-action completion percentage of 59.6, which should go up with a reliable target like Jones on the field. Overall, this Jones deal solidifies Tannehill as a legit QB1 in fantasy this upcoming year.
Conclusion
Ryan Tannehill has come a long way since his days with the Miami Dolphins. He has become an efficient quarterback who has proven to be a great QB2 in super flex leagues. This year may be different with the addition of Julio Jones and AJ Brown entering his prime. This could be the year that Tannehill puts his hat in the MVP race. My prediction for Tannehill’s season: 4,500 yds, 40 TDs and 5 ints. Tannehill is still affordable, but smart fantasy players are going to grab him a round or 2 ahead of his current ADP. So feel comfortable grabbing him in your single QB leagues, and make him a priority for your two QB super flex leagues.
