Russell Gage: A Smashing Value In 2020 Fantasy Football
The Atlanta Falcons offense is one of most fantasy football friendly offenses in the league. They have ranked in the top ten for yards since 2014, and Matt Ryan has thrown the ball 600-plus times in the last two seasons. Ryan was even on pace for a career-high 41 attempts per game (656 attempts over 16 games).
Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Todd Gurley, and Hayden Hurst have stolen the spotlight from the promising slot receiver Russell Gage. Usually, the third receiver on a team isn’t particularly fantasy football relevant but Mohammed Sanu was a WR3 in 2018 and 2017 and was on pace for another WR3 finish in 2019 before being traded to the Patriots.
Despite entering a valuable role, which he performed well in last year, Russell Gage is being ranked as fantasy WR84 or lower in 2020. We all want value in those late rounds, and Gage is going to give you the most bang for your buck.
A Valuable Yet Undervalued Position
As I alluded to earlier, the WR3 role for the Falcons demands plenty of volume as, over the last three seasons, players holding that role have accumulated 90-plus targets each year and have finished as either WR2’s or WR3’s.
In Ridley’s rookie season, he was technically the WR3, starting only five games, yet he finished with 92 targets and ten touchdowns, good for WR22 overall. However, his ADP before the season started was WR44 and Sanu, who finished as WR31, was drafted as WR54.
Year after year, fantasy football owners underestimate the value of the lesser-known receivers in Atlanta. With the entire offense relying on Ryan’s arm, the WR3 in Dirk Koetter’s offense gets more targets than other teams secondary options like Mike Williams, Sammy Watkins, and Marvin Jones. The Falcons had three receivers or more on the field over 75-percent of the time over the last two seasons.
No Risk, All Reward
A lot of the receivers going in the same range as Gage are either risky young players that may never reach their ceiling or veterans that are locked in for middling production. He’s the only one in line for 90-plus targets and played well in the same role for over half a season.
There is no uncertainty with Gage. In the Falcons offense, after you account for Julio (10 targets), Ridley (10 targets), Hurst (6 targets), and Gurley (6 targets) there are still up to ten targets spare for Gage to dominate.
After taking over for Sanu, Gage averaged just over seven targets a game, but one of the Falcons’ top receiving threats was injured in nearly every game. In Weeks 8 and 10, when Hooper, Jones, and Ridley were healthy, Gage averaged seven targets a game.
See Where Russell Gage Lands In Our 2020 Fantasy Draft Rankings!
Seven targets a game over a full season is a healthy 112 targets, a number which only 23 other receivers beat. Gage had 92.5 fantasy points in nine games with only one touchdown reception. That’s still a better finish in 2019 than his ADP for the 2020 season.
His only competitor for the WR3 position is Laquon Treadwell who was a first-round bust. In only his second year in the NFL, Gage’s 73 targets are 20 more than the most Treadwell has had in a season on his rookie contract. Treadwell is a depth piece, not a competitor.
Koetter has faith in his young receiver, expecting a jump in his game. Gage is young and hasn’t even sniffed his potential as a slot receiver, where he excels. His pre-draft scouting report had only a few negative points. A lack of college production and due to his size, limited to playing primarily in the slot. Lucky for him, he plays with two of the best outside receivers in the league, allowing him to excel.
He was a big piece of the offense when everyone was available and was able to step into a bigger role whenever anyone missed a game.
Potential For Even More Volume
Julio has only had two 16-game seasons and Ridley missed three games last season alone. In games where Julio or Ridley was out, Gage averaged 8.5 targets and 49 yards per game. On top of his usual production, there will be a couple of games in 2020 where he gets 8-plus targets a game.
In those four games in 2019, Gage averaged a modest 12.2 points per game, a better average than DK Metcalf and Adam Thielen. This was with only one touchdown in a generally high scoring offense. He was performing like a low-end WR2 when things opened up for him, and a low-end WR4 when everyone was healthy.
However, Gage and the rest of the Falcons offense could be in store for even more targets next season. The NFC South has three Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks who each have one of the best receiving cores in the league. Ryan will see Drew Brees and Tom Brady twice next year and will battle it out with several high-scoring offenses like the Chiefs, Lions, and Raiders.
Ryan should easily pass 650 attempts for the year through shootouts and blowouts.
2020 Projections
Gage is in line for 100-plus targets next season as a slot receiver. He has developed chemistry with Ryan and is a great third option behind Julio and Ridley. Gurley and Hurst won’t demand more targets than Hooper and Freeman’s combined average of 13 a game considering Gurley’s career-high average is six a game, and the Falcons will be managing his workload this season.
Conservative Projections:
- 6.5 targets a game for 104 total targets
- After Week 8, Gage had a catch-rate of 68-percent which he should improve on as he develops. Currently projecting a catch rate of 70-percent, considering the nature of his targets over the middle
- 104 targets at a 70-percent catch rate = 73 receptions
- Gage has more speed than people credit him for, and Koetter should be able to use him on deeper routes next season, thus increasing his yards-per-reception from 8.9 to closer to 10
- 73 receptions at 10 yards-per-reception = 730 yards
- Three touchdowns over 16 games as the third option in a high-powered Falcons offense is achievable considering Sanu beat this mark three times in Atlanta
- Overall: 164 fantasy points in PPR (WR39 in 2019)
Gage will have a high-end WR4 season and be a great flex option, outproducing his ADP by up to 40 spots. Flex spots can win leagues, and Gage is the exact type of flex that will help you win matchups throughout the year.
Pick him up as your third flex and you will not be disappointed considering how much volume is headed his way.
Aggressive Projections:
- Seven targets a game for 112 on the season
- 80 receptions at a 71.5-percent catch rate
- 11 yards-per-reception for 80 receptions = 880 yards
- Four touchdowns, finding space whilst defenses focus on Julio, Hurst, Ridley, and Gurley
- Overall: 192 points in PPR (WR29 in 2019)
