Is Volume Really King For Running Backs?
When it comes to rushing production, volume is king. The more you get the ball, the more fantasy points you’re putting on the board. Pretty simple really.
But is it? Is this a win for the ‘Running Backs don’t matter’ crowd? Just plug a guy in there and give him the ball enough, you’ll get your points?
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I decided to take a closer look at rushing production amongst the top 50 Running Backs from 2020 (the top 50 fantasy points scorers based on rushing numbers only).
Attempts = Fantasy Points
Let’s start by calibrating this one. Are rushing fantasy points dictated and driven by the volume that running back is getting?
The short answer is yes. It’s a strong correlation and while there’s always outliers in any data set, as far as statistics go that’s a great start.
The Outliers
So what I really wanted to do here was find out who the outliers are. So I started with our trendline and I looked at those who had the biggest gaps above the line (i.e. those who did better than average with their volume) and the biggest gaps below the line (i.e. those who did worse than average with their volume).
The top players:
- JK Dobbins
- Alvin Kamara
- Nick Chubb
- D’Andre Swift
- Jerick McKinnon
- Antonio Gibson
- Jeff Wilson
- Carlos Hyde
- Leonard Fournette
- Aaron Jones
Some interesting names in this list but remember, this is rushing production only. And there is a problem with the data at this stage, it’s still heavily impacted by the player’s surrounding circumstances (the team, the offensive line, etc).
And the bottom 10 (out of the top 50):
- Frank Gore
- Giovani Bernard
- Phillip Lindsay
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Devin Singletary
- Cam Akers
- Joe Mixon
- Austin Ekeler
- Myles Gaskin
- Jamaal Williams
Again, remember the outside influences at this point, although there are some unsurprising names in here (sorry Frank). One thing that jumps out at me is that we have a Packers running back in the top 10 and one in the bottom 10. Say what you like about outside influences but with two players on the same team at opposite ends of the scale, that’s significant.
Offensive Line Adjustment
The last thing I’m going to do is try to remove the influence of the offensive line. I used data from Football Outsiders to get the Adjusted Line Yards for each team. Although this isn’t a perfect measurement (by their own admissions) it basically attributes yards to the offensive line as opposed to the running back. So by looking at how well each team did compared to the average, we can make some assumptions about how much of the performance is on the running back and how much isn’t.
Back to our top 10 and lets pick out the ones who still produced at a greater rate than their offensive line created for them.
- JK Dobbins
Alvin KamaraNick Chubb- D’Andre Swift
- Jerick McKinnon
- Antonio Gibson
- Jeff Wilson
Carlos HydeLeonard FournetteAaron Jones
And the players in the bottom 10 who were even worse than their offensive line.
- Frank Gore
Giovani BernardPhillip Lindsay- Ezekiel Elliott
- Devin Singletary
- Cam Akers
Joe MixonAustin EkelerMyles Gaskin- Jamaal Williams
What does it mean?
Ok, it’s not a perfect analysis and there’s a lot of other influences that can move the numbers. But it does confirm or suggest a few things.
- Three of the 2020 rookie class (Dobbins, Swift, Gibson) were pretty damn good running the ball
- The rushing production of some of the higher-end backs is heavily-driven by their offensive lines. It’s not to say they’re not still good, but it does suggest that we shouldn’t expect an increase in efficiency next season
- Frank Gore is exactly what we think he is
- The Bengals backfield needs improvement on the offensive-line. If they can do that in the offseason, we should be looking for improvement from Mixon and friends on the ground in 2021
- Devin Singletary is not the man in Buffalo
- Ezekiel Elliott did not produce like the man in Dallas
and last but not least…
Cam Akers
Perhaps the biggest surprise for me was Cam Akers, who did not produce the output that his volume dictated he should have. He had the 7th best offensive line in the league for creating yards for him but he still produced less yards per carry than they created. He did develop after a slow start in his rookie season so let’s quickly grab the rushing data from the LA Rams Team Profile page (also available on the Yards Per Fantasy app):
What improved was his volume, not necessarily his efficiency. He had a couple of strong weeks in there but they weren’t against strong run defenses. We can see that if we look at the Opponent Defense stats and look how their opponents ranked against running backs (data also available in the Yards Per Fantasy Team Profile pages):
Akers is still going to be a top option in 2021 but it’s largely a volume play.
Volume is still king and is the overriding factor in determining how the running backs are going to perform, not to mention the work in the receiving game. But it’s not the full story and we can at least understand a bit more about those backs who outperform expectations…and those who don’t!
