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The most coveted position in fantasy football belongs to the running backs. With the exception of leagues where you have the option of starting multiple quarterbacks, they’ll be the first off the board and fill the most depth on your bench in hopes of hitting some running back value.
So, what if you decide to look elsewhere with your first or even second pick? Maybe you want to take Justin Jefferson or Cooper Kupp in the middle of round one. Or, you decide to use an early pick on one of the elite tight ends? The opportunity cost of an elite receiver or tight end is missing out on a narrow position pool. And we’ve all heard of the dreaded running back dead zone in rounds three thru four. Going this route will require hitting on some running back value in the later rounds who have RB1 upside.
Trends of A RB1
Over the last six years we have a sample size of 72 running backs. Over that span, two indicators we’ll look at are total touchdowns and receptions.
53 of the 72 RB1s have scored double-digit touchdowns (73.6%). Of last year’s top-12 running backs, only Nick Chubb (RB10) and Alvin Kamara (RB11) failed to hit double-digit touchdowns, both hitting nine. 40 of the 72 had at least 50 receptions (55.6%), but 64 running backs had either 10 total touchdowns or 50 receptions (88.9%). While the percentage with over 50 receptions seems low, of the 32 who failed to hit 50 receptions, there are only eight top-5 finishes:
Aaron Jones in 2019: 2nd; 19 TDs and 49 receptions
James Robinson in 2020: 4th; 10 TDs and 49 receptions
Aaron Jones 2020: 5th; 11 TDs and 47 receptions
Dalvin Cook in 2020: 2nd; 17 TDs and 44 receptions
Joe Mixon in 2021: 3rd; 16 TDs and 42 receptions
Jonathan Taylor in 2021: 1st; 20 TDs and 40 receptions
Ezekiel Elliot in 2016: 2nd; 16 TDs and 32 receptions
Derrick Henry in 2020: 3rd; 21 TDs and 19 receptions
Seven of the eight instances have come in the last three seasons, while six of the backs hauled in at least 40 receptions.
Another metric to look at is the age of the running backs:
60 of the 72 were 26 or younger in the season (83.3%). Nine fell between the ages of 27 and 29 (12.5%). Only three players over 30 finished as a RB1 in this six year window: LeGarrette Blount (2016), Mark Ingram II (2019) and Cordarrelle Patterson (2021). Those three each finished as RB8 as 30-year old’s.
So, the player pool we’re looking at falls with those running backs involved in the pass game while on their first contract.
Pre-Draft RB1s
As we approach the end of July, ADP will adjust over the next six weeks. Here is the current ADP, courtesy of Underdog Fantasy, of the top-12 RBs in half-PPR scoring as of July 27th:
RB1: Jonathan Taylor (1st overall, 23 years old)
RB2: Christian McCaffrey (2rd overall, 26 years old)
RB3: Austin Ekeler (6th overall, 27 years old)
RB4: Derrick Henry (7th overall, 28 years old)
RB5: Dalvin Cook (9th overall, 27 years old)
RB6: Najee Harris (10th overall, 24 years old)
RB7: Joe Mixon (13th overall, 26 years old)
RB8: D’Andre Swift (15th overall, 23 years old)
RB9: Aaron Jones (17th overall, 28 years old)
RB10: Saquon Barkley (18th overall, 25 years old)
RB11: Javonte Williams (22nd overall, 22 years old)
RB12: Leonard Fournette (24th overall, 27 years old)
There is one additional back going at the round two/three turn of note:
RB13: Nick Chubb (25th overall, 27 years old)
Excluding these 13 backs, let’s see where some running back value is in later rounds.
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
Ezekiel Elliott (RB17, 40th overall, 27 years old)
There are some things going against Elliott: he is on the wrong side of the 26-year old marker, and Tony Pollard prevents him from bell cow status. However, Elliott has recorded 50 receptions in three of the last four seasons, with at least 40 in each season. Over the last two years, Elliott has finished as RB16 and RB14 in points per game. In each of those two seasons, Elliott found himself behind two players on a points per game basis who played in less than half the season. Elliott has finished as a top-12 running back in each season in the league.
Fantasy football managers are likely sour at Elliott for failing to live up to his first round draft capital the last two years. Now, he’s landing near the dreaded ‘RB dead zone’ in drafts. Yet, excluding his six-game suspension in 2017, Elliott has missed just one game during the fantasy football season. He’s proven to be a reliable back with a fringe RB1/high-end RB2 status. Elliott’s current ADP is at at his floor. And while his days of a top-5 back are likely behind him, Elliott could still garner top-10 upside. I’m expecting Elliott to exceed his current ADP as RB17 as he returns some running back value.
Breece Hall (RB18, 41st overall, 21 years old)
The fantasy football community was salivating at the thought Breece Hall could land with the Buffalo Bills. Ultimately, Hall lands in the AFC East; just with the bottom cellar Jets instead of the Bills. Fear not: despite landing with one of the league’s bottom tier teams, Hall could still find himself as a fantasy darling in year one.
The top rookie in four of the last five classes has produced a RB1 in their rookie year. The Jets moved up to select Hall, who was regarded as one of the better prospects over the last few years. In 14 games last year, Michael Carter saw 55 targets as the lead back. Expect Hall to be featured in the Jets’ young, revamped offense.
AJ Dillon (RB24, 65th overall, 24 years old)
AJ Dillon’s teammate, Aaron Jones, has finished as a top-10 running back every season with Matt LaFleur as head coach. 2021 saw Dillon creep into Jones’ role; Jones edged out Dillon in carries per game at 11.4 to 11, respectively. Jones remains the main back Rodgers targets, but Dillon’s role expanded there as well. Dillon saw 37 targets, a massive jump from just two his rookie year. Dillon managed 33 receptions and seven total touchdowns in his second season while splitting time. If Dillon continues to expand his role as he enters year three, Dillon could be the back to roster in Green Bay. As a result, Dillon could have the highest running back value amongst the Green Bay backfield.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB28, 86th overall, 23 years old)
Remember when Clyde Edwards-Helaire was sneaking into the first round of fantasy football drafts as a rookie? It feels like an eternity ago, as the now third-year back finished as RB23 and RB27 in his first two seasons on a per game basis. His pre-draft hype is now at it’s lowest point, going as a mere flex in the mid rounds.
However, there is a slight reason to stay on the Edwards-Helaire bandwagon:
Westbrook was a comparable player for Edwards-Helaire when he was drafted. This was due to size and pass-catching ability. This intensified when Edwards-Helaire was drafted by Andy Reid, Westbrook’s former coach.
Injuries plagued Edwards-Helaire’s second season, getting injured in Week 5 and never getting up to full steam. Similar to Elliott, Edwards-Helaire’s current ADP appears to be his floor. This may be Edwards-Helaire’s final opportunity at fantasy relevancy. I’ll utilize a mid-round pick in hopes 2022 is the Edwards-Helaire breakout season, returning some running back value.
Darkhorse: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB34, 104th overall, 24 years old)
Stevenson broke onto the scene last preseason, making big plays that resulted in touchdowns. Stevenson split time with Damien Harris as a rookie, averaging 12.25 touches per game to Harris’s 14.67. But what makes Stevenson so useful in his rookie season is his ability to make defenders miss.
He posted a .23 missed tackle rate, the fifth highest mark from a rookie in the last decade. Stevenson missed Week 16 against the Bills, and left Week 18’s game against the Dolphins with a head injury. In the seven games in November and December, Stevenson averaged 14.9 carries for 71.1 yards.
The New England backfield did gain competition this offseason, adding 4th and 6th rounders in Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris. But until either prove to be a threat in the offense, the run game goes through Damien Harris and Stevenson. Stevenson is built similar to former Patriot LeGarrette Blount, a former RB1 thanks to league-leading 18 touchdowns. Stevenson’s role in the Patriots’ offense could produce running back value in the later rounds.
Agree? Disagree? Let’s discuss on Twitter! Follow me @DrewRoberts_and let me know who your favorite is or someone I missed.
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