Rookies You Need To Draft In 2023 Fantasy Football
Rookies To Target In 2023 Fantasy Football
Rookie are one of the funnest parts of fantasy football drafting season. Especially if you’re a sicko like me who has been scouting these guys since before the NFL Draft and now we get to see them on an NFL Field. Rookies sometimes end up being traps—because everyone gets so excited about the possibilities—fresh new blood!—and end up overhyping and over drafting. But they can also be an advantage because some—even amidst the hype—still end up being values based on the cost to get them and the production they give you.
Our mission today is to find the rookies that are worth the cost of admission and will help you find value in drafts and ultimately win your 2023 fantasy football leagues.
Note: Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba was originally on this list but his recent wrist surgery has clouded his early season outlook. He will be excellent when healthy.
Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
Jordan Addison has a well-developed game that will translate into immediate production in the NFL. He is a smooth route-runner who can tackle the full route tree, utilize a variety of release tactics, and create consistent separation. Addison has the versatility to line up out wide and in the slot. He has plenty of speed to get open vertically and the moves to create yardage after the catch.
Addison checks all of the age and production-based analytical boxes that we look for when profiling incoming rookie wide receivers as well. He had an age-18 breakout at Pitt. While playing with Kenny Pickett in 2021, he averaged more than seven receptions per game, nearly three yards per team pass attempt, with a 38.6% receiving touchdown share. He also had 20 career rush attempts and 20 career kick returns which shows us that the team saw him as one of its special playmakers and wanted to get the ball in his hands in as many ways as possible.
In that 2021 sophomore season, Addison hauled-in 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns. He added another 56 yards and a score as a rusher. It was enough to take home the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver. He was also named first-team All-American and first-team All-ACC. With Pickett departing for the NFL after the season, Addison opted to enter the transfer portal and join another first round quarterback prospect, Caleb Williams, at USC. Addison played 11 games with the Trojans in 2022, catching 59 passes for 875 yards and eight touchdowns before an ankle injury cost him two games in the middle of the season and then again in the Cotton Bowl.
Addison was one of four wide receivers taken in the first round of this year’s draft. Landing in the Minnesota offense was about as perfect as we could ask for. Sure, he will never be the alpha in that offense, but he’s the perfect second option opposite a stud like Justin Jefferson. One of the things we love most about the Vikings offense from a fantasy football standpoint, is that their target shares are routinely consolidated and predictable. It’s Jefferson, it’s Addison, and it’s TJ Hockenson. That’s it. I mean, a dusty Adam Thielen commanded over 100 targets in that offense last season. That’s the floor for Addison.
The defense in Minnesota is terrible so they’re going to have to pass a lot to stay in games. The team acknowledged this by moving on from running back Dalvin Cook and not replacing him with anyone. It’s easy to see 80+ catches and over 1,000 yards for Addison in his rookie season.
More: 10 Players To Target After Round 10
Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens
Zay Flowers was the third wide receiver off the board in the first round of the 2023 draft. He adds an explosive element to the Ravens offense that they were missing in 2022. Flowers is a versatile weapon who can play both outside and in the slot. He has an excellent combination of speed and explosion to win on all three levels and to create plays after the catch or on rush attempts.
As a senior at Boston College in 2022, Flowers tied a school record with 78 receptions for more than 1,000 yards. His 12 touchdowns were the most in a single season in school history. Flowers is the program’s all-time leader in career receptions (200), career receiving yards (3,056) and career receiving touchdowns (29).
Flowers will be the chess piece that the Ravens offense has been in need of for a long time. He projects to play a significant role right away despite the other pass catchers in the offense. He has out-performed Odell Beckham throughout training camp and Rashod Bateman missed multiple weeks of practice at the start of the summer. Flowers could realistically finish second on the team in targets behind Mark Andrews.And there should be plenty of targets to go around. Everything the Ravens did during the offseason indicates they are moving away from their old run-first, conservative approach on offense. They brought in a new, more modern minded offensive coordinator and added two stud pass catchers (Flowers and OBJ), on top of locking in their quarterback for the next five years.
His ADP continues to rise the more we see training camp and preseason highlights of him destroying defenders on routes or making explosive plays after the catch. I don’t think his ADP could climb high enough to where I wouldn’t want to draft him. He’s in for a fantastic rookie season.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Bears
Roschon Johnson has quietly had an excellent preseason. That’s despite playing behind the Bears backup offensive line. In fact, according to John Daigle on Twitter, Johnson has totaled just one yard before contact on 19 carries so far. That means he’s getting met at or behind the line of scrimmage on almost every run. Yet, he’s managed to gain 75 yards after contact which ranks fourth among all running backs this preseason. That’s 98.7% of his total yardage coming after he’s been hit. He’s done that by forcing the fourth most missed tackles per rush attempt (0.32) across the league. It’s only a small sample (and preseason), but we’re already seeing why the Bears drafted Roshcon Johnson in the fourth round.
Johnson spent most of his college career stuck in the shadow of Bijan Robinson. He got enough opportunity, though, for us to see he has true NFL-level talent. He has excellent vision, patience, and instincts and he averaged 6.0 yards per carry over his last two seasons at Texas. Over that time, Johsnon amassed 1,123 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Johnson a big back at 6-0, 219 lbs who runs with a rare mix of power and finesse. He has the athletic skill set to crawl out of the Bijan shadow and lead his own backfield at the NFL level.
Where he really gets the edge in the Bears backfield, though, is with his receiving skills. Johnson proved to be a natural receiver when given the opportunity. He caught 25 passes over his last two seasons while behind Bijan, and he had 23 receptions as a true freshman. In comparison, over five years of college football, Khalil Herbert caught just 34 total passes (6.8 per season). In the NFL, he has just 23 on 28 targets with target shares of 3% and 4%. D’Onta Foreman’s receiving profile is even worse. He caught just 13 passes in college and has just 23 receptions in five NFL seasons.
This is where the door opens for someone like Johnson to gain an opportunity in the Bears backfield. According to Daigle, Johnson ran a route on 71% of Texas’ third and fourth down plays last season (Bijan was at 55%) so he’s no stranger to a third down role. He is also a strong pass-blocking running back and he’s shown that during training camp practices already, That will surely help his case to get on the field early. If Johnson can capture significant time on passing downs, that will really open up his ceiling from a fantasy football standpoint. And it opens the door for more opportunities on first and second downs as well.
And who’s to say Johnson doesn’t overtake Herbert all together? Herbert has only shown us flashes in small samples and he has a sixth round pick drafted by the previous regime. It’s not crazy to think Johnson finishes out the season No. 1 on the Bears depth chart.
More: Players To Avoid At ADP In 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Marvin Mims, WR, Broncos
Marvin Mims was one of the most exciting wide receiver prospects in the 2023 class. Apparently Sean Payton agreed as he traded up to make Mims his first pick as Broncos head coach. Mims adds an explosive element that the Denver offense was missing last season. He’s a playmaker with 4.38 speed and a career yards per reception average of nearly 20 yards while in college. He led his team in receiving in all three of his seasons, finishing 2022 with 1,083 yards and six touchdowns. He also made an impact as a kick returner.
Mims is a smooth operator who creates consistent separation and can win on all three levels. Once he has the ball, Mims has the speed and quickness to gain additional yardage after the catch. In fact, his 8.5 YAC per reception in 2022 was second-most among Power Five wide receivers from the 2023 class.
With projected No. 3 wide receiver Tim Patrick out for the season and KJ Hamler released, Mims is locked into a starting role in three-wide receiver sets. Mims profiles as more of a splash play guy as opposed to a high-volume target, much like he was at Oklahoma. He’s a perfect compliment to the big outside x-receiver Courtland Sutton, and the smooth possession Jerry Jeudy.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
Second round rookie Jayden Reed was listed as the WR3 on the initial Packers depth chart and has been starting in 11-personnel so far in preseason. It’s only a matter of time, though, before he’s playing ahead of Romeo Doubs in two-wide receiver sets as well. Reed is a versatile weapon who can line up anywhere on the field and even take some rush attempts or add value as a returner. He was a big-time punt returner in college, taking three back to the house. That also translates to after the catch, where he’s excellent at gaining additional yardage.
The Packers have a wide open receiver depth chart behind last year’s rookie breakout Christian Watson. It’s Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure, Dontayvion Wicks, and Bo Melton. Not great. That gives Reed a clear path to significant opportunity as a rookie, especially with a new quarterback who doesn’t have built-in chemistry with any of the existing receivers on the roster. Reed can be more of that target volume guy who creates plays after the catch while Christian Watson is your downfield playmaker outside the numbers. Quarterback Jordan Love will appreciate Reed’s ability to create separation with ease and to get open quickly. He will present Love with an easy outlet to get the ball to when in trouble and on plays where he can’t sit and wait for Watson’s downfield routes to develop.
My comp for Reed coming out of Michigan state was Emmanuel Sanders. His body type, versatility, quickness, ability to create separation anywhere on the field, all align with what Sanders was during the prime of his career. Sanders had some big seasons in his younger years, I expect Reed will as well. He’s easily attainable in drafts with an ADP in round 15.
Must Read: The 2023 Backup Running Backs and Handcuff Guide
Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Colts rookie Anthony Richardson is quite literally the most athletic quarterback to ever enter the NFL. At 6-4, 244 pounds, Richardson ran an incredible 4.43-second 40-yard dash. He is a playmaker with his legs who has massive rushing yardage and rushing touchdown upside. That will give him a good floor for fantasy football while he develops his passing game. That could take a little time given his inexperience. He only had 393 career pass attempts at Florida. His accuracy is inconsistent, but a lot of that can be attributed to poor mechanics and footwork. With some coaching, those issues can be cleaned up considerably.
Speaking of coaching, Richardson is in good hands with new Colts head coach Shane Steichen. Steichen worked with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia the last few years. Hurts has a similar play style as Richardson and he had some of the same concerns coming into the league. Now he’s one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. How much of that can be attributed to the help of Steichen is probably minimal, but we know he has witnessed a similar player find ways to improve his game in the same way Richardson needs to. More importantly, he showed he knows how to create an offense around that type of player to highlight his strengths and minimize the weaknesses.
Once he works out the kinks in his mechanics and improves the accuracy concerns, Richardson is going to be dangerous as a passer. He has an incredibly strong arm. He can make big time throws down the field or in tight windows. That fits well with Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce’s games as big-bodied receivers who can win vertically and in contested situations. Richardson’s pocket presence is underrated as well and is actually one of his strengths. If that translates to the NFL, he will be just fine.
If you were drafting Trey Lance last season, you naturally have to be into Anthony Richardson as well. He has higher rushing upside and more experience as a quarterback than Lance did. He has the same high floor thanks to the rushing, and if he hits as a passer, the ceiling is as high as anyone’s. Richardson is a great pick in single quarterback leagues around the QB11-14 range. Pair him with a high floor guy like Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, or Brock Purdy as your QB2. If he hits as a passer, Richardson will win you your league.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions
Sam LaPorta is a jack of all trades, master of none. He’s a solid receiver, decent route runner, and an okay blocker. However, he has the size, athleticism, and college production to think he can develop into a starting tight end in the NFL. LaPorta went over 600 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons at low, with a target share over 21% in each of the last three. He’s a bit undersized at 245 pounds but he’s athletic with 4.59 speed. That helps him eat up yards after the catch as well as be able to create plays down the field.
The Lions selected him with the third pick of the second round to fill the void left behind after the TJ Hockenson trade last season. LaPorta has been playing well in training camp, making highlight reel plays on a number of occasions. He projects to play a significant role in the passing game as soon as Week 1. With wide receiver Jameson Williams suspended for the first six weeks, the Lions are going to need someone else to step up behind Amon-ra St. Brown. LaPorta can be that guy.
What about Bijan & Gibbs?
If you’re wondering why Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were left off the list, find out here.
Who are your favorite rookies to draft in 2023 fantasy football? Jump in our Discord and join the discussion!
RANKINGS | DYNASTY | REDRAFT |
Draft With Us On Underdog! Use Promo-Code: YARDSPER to double your deposit!
