2020 Fantasy Draft Debate: Tyreek Hill or Joe Mixon At The End Of Round 1?
Redraft season is on the horizon and roster construction is important to your success in season long leagues. Your roster construction starts during the draft and this series will focus on the “this or that” of selecting a position during the draft and what the ramifications of that selection for your team is.
For this exercise, the position group selected with the first picks will be contrasted by the opposite position in the later pick. For example, if you took a RB in round two vs a WR in round two, the round 10 selection would compare taking a WR to pair with your second round RB and vice versa. All ADP is derived from ffcalculator.com and is based on 12 team PPR. Let’s check out part eight.
ELITE WR OR ELITE RB IN ROUND 1?
After RBs Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara come off the board in the first round, the next tier of RBs include guys like Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders and Joe Mixon. After WR Michael Thomas comes off the board in the middle of round one, there is no clear-cut WR2. Do you want the lone WR with talent in Green Bay? How about the perennial All-Pro who’s joining an Air Raid offense in Arizona? Maybe it’s the most explosive WR on the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs? At the end of round one, this is decision managers are faced with. For this example, let’s compare Mixon (ADP 11) and WR Tyreek Hill (ADP 12). Here’s what they did in 2019.
Mixon – RB13 (225.4 FP) RB21 (14.1 FP/G)
Hill – WR32 (188.3 FP) WR11 (15.7 FP/G)
See Joe Mixon & Tyreek Hill In Our 2020 Draft Rankings!
The offensive line play for Cincinnati in 2019 was atrocious and drove some poor outputs from Mixon. 2019 first round pick OT Jonah Williams is healthy now, as is star WR A.J. Green. These returners are joined by number one overall selection QB Joe Burrow and 33rd overall pick WR Tee Higgins. Throw consistent WR2 Tyler Boyd in the mix and this offense could be pretty fun. Mixon could be the benefactor of some box relief with the threat of a passing game.
Related | Six Running Backs We Love To Draft In 2020
The key to Mixon’s fantasy success will be his target share. Will Mixon get fed through the air or will he be the fifth option? Hill missed some time due to injury, driving his overall finish down, but his PPG ranking was still a bit lower than what we’ve come to expect from the star WR. The Chiefs added first round receiving back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, have target hog TE Travis Kelce, and emerging WR Mecole Hardman. Hill doesn’t need many targets in a game to win you a week, but how much will his volume decline in 2020?
WHO TO PAIR?
If you selected Mixon at 11, you could pair him with WR DK Metcalf (ADP 48). If you selected Hill at 12 you could pair him with RB David Montgomery (ADP 47). Let’s examine their 2019 seasons.
Metcalf – WR30 (191.1 FP) WR45 (11.9 FP/G)
Montgomery – RB24 (174.4 FP) RB34 (10.9 FP/G)
Turns out Metcalf, despite his route tree limitations, was a perfect fit for the vertical offense utilized by Seattle. Metcalf grew as the season progressed and has the look of a pretty good WR for years to come. Metcalf should see triple digit targets again in 2020, but converting those targets to receptions will be key for the second year receiver. Montgomery is on the shelf for a reported two to four weeks with a groin issue, which should drop his ADP even more. There isn’t a rushing threat in Chicago, so Montgomery should lead that backfield in touches. How much will RB Tarik Cohen eat into Montgomery’s receiving work?
2020 PROJECTIONS
VERDICT
I’m torn again on this one. In this scenario I would lean Tyreek Hill at the end of the first round, knowing I could come back and take someone like Chubb, Sanders or Kenyan Drake as my RB1 to pair with the safe floor of David Montgomery. I love Joe Mixon this season, but I am still hard pressed to trust DK Metcalf. Maybe he does it again and proves me wrong, but give me the most explosive WR on the best offensive team in the NFL.
What do you think? What would you do?
