Ravens vs Chiefs Betting & DFS Preview
Ravens vs Chiefs DFS & Betting Preview
Injuries to Monitor
Hollywood Brown Has a shoulder injury that has prevented him from practicing and will likely miss this game.
Mark Andrews has undisclosed injuries from a car accident on Aug 14th. He returned to practice late last week and should be able to play
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been dealing with an ongoing illness and some mental health issues stemming from PTSD. He is will not play.
Breakdown
The Chiefs come into the season as the defending Super Bowl Champs. They had a regular season record of 11-6 which was good enough to win the AFC West and tied with the Bills for the 2nd best record in the AFC.
They ranked 6th in passing yards and 8th in passing TDs. Both were rather impressive considering it was basically an average year for Mahomes. They ranked 19th in rushing yards and 26th in rushing TDs. They were impressive defensively allowing the 2nd least total yards and TDs.
The Ravens finished 13-4 last season which was the best record in the AFC. They were 21st in passing yards and 12th in passing TDs. They were much better running the ball with the most rushing yards and 4th most rushing TDs in the NFL. Defensively they allowed the least points and 6th least total yards.
Andy Reid 9-1 in Season Openers as Chiefs head coach. Harbaugh is 12-4 in season openers as Ravens HC. They’ve won 7 of their last 8 openers.
The Chiefs have added some important pieces on offense mainly in skill players Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown. Defensively their biggest loss was L’Jarius Sneed but Baltimore has a lack of outside receiving talent so it may not impact this game to terribly.
The Ravens lost some key offensive starting linemen in Zeitler, John Simpson and Morgan Moses. They are currently ranked the 25th Offensive Line by PFF. The key addition was Derrick Henry who should feast in this offense especially considering what Gus Edwards was able to do last year in the TD department.
This is an incredible game to start the season and a rematch of the AFC Championship where the Chiefs won 14-5. I’d expect slightly more scoring in this one but both defenses are formidable. They are both slightly better defending the pass so it’s possible we see a slightly more run heavy game script on both sides.
Betting
Spread: KC -3
Over/Under: 46.5
I like KC at home in this one and I’m leaning towards taking them. It looks like the line could move to 2.5 and I would certainly prefer that.
Baltimore lost three starting offensive linemen and we know that it can take time for a line to gell. With how run heavy they can be I think the line play could hinder them a bit.
Props
Andrews Anytime TD
(+175)
Andrews 1st TD
(+1100)
Lamar ov 46.5 rush yds
(-114)
Draftkings Showdown
Showdown Captain mode is a DraftKings tournament where you have $50,000 to create a lineup using 6 players from a standalone single game. One of those players will be your captain. The captain costs 1.5 times their salary and will accumulate 1.5 times the points. As with every slate, GAME THEORY IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT. Even more so in Showdown, you want your lineup to tell a story of how the game will go. There are a lot of options based on how you see the game going but ALWAYS make sure there’s correlation between your players.
Strategy
There’s obviously some marquee names on both of these teams and I’d expect Lamar, Mahomes, Kelce and Henry to be the most popular captain plays. I will play them but also like some other guys to play at the captain spot.
Some sneaky Flex plays could be Bateman who everyone has left for dead. Agholor has had some ceiling games in the past and Justin Watson should have a role while Hollywood is out.
The total for this game is pretty high and most people will want to play a lot of the skill position players in a perceived high scoring game. We saw these teams combine for 19 total points when they played in the playoffs so I think playing some lineups with a lower scoring game script could be contrarian. Defense and kickers would certainly be in play.
*My favorite Captain picks would obviously also make good Flex Options.
Captain
Lamar Jackson $17,100
Lamar is the highest price for a reason. His rushing ability is a cheat code and any passing production is a bonus. He’s averaged 61 rush yards per game in his career. You basically get an automatic 6 points. He has a safe floor while still providing the upside.
Isaiah Pacheco $12,600
Pacheco will get a ton of work in this game with CEH out and Perine only being there for a week. They relied on him heavily in the postseason where he averaged 20 rush attempts and 3 catches.
Rashee Rice $11,400
Rice is the clear WR1 for this team. He really established himself as the season went on. From week 12 on he was the WR8 in DraftKings scoring. He had a 27% target share, 30% targets per route run and a solid 2.7 yards per route run.
Mark Andrews $9,600
The sentiment on Andrews seems to be cooling a bit but Andrews is still the number one option for this team in the passing game. Injuries have been an issue but he seems like he’s healthy and past any issues stemming from the car accident. He scored 6 TDs last year in only 10 games which was tied for 2nd most among TEs.
Xavier Worthy $8,700
Freakish speed and big play upside at this salary are a great combo. The salary savings allows a lot of options.
Flex
Patrick Mahomes $10,400
Mahomes is obviously a great option but I do think he’ll be extremely popular at captain. I like using him as an anchor at flex with some of his receiving options at captain.
Derrick Henry $9,000
I will have some Henry captain lineups because of the TD upside. Gus Edwars scored 13 TDs in this offense so imagine what Henry is capable of. Henry forced the 4th most missed tackles last year. I do worry that he cedes some of the passing work to Justice Hill.
Zay Flowers $8,000
Flowers may trail Andrews in target share but he is clearly a talented pass catcher. He had a 24% target share last season. He had an up and down season but had 20 or more DraftKings points in five of his final seven games.
Justice Hill $4,400
Hill absolutely has a role on this offense and will have some guaranteed touches at a cheap salary. He’ll likely be used in the passing game. Last year he had at least 3 receptions in four of his final five games.
Samaje Perine $3,000
This one is risky considering Perine has only been with the team for a week. He’ll likely have limited opportunities without having a solid grasp on the play book. He will get some passing work and could pay off his salary with a few catches.
Carson Steele $200
The salary just allows you to fit absolute studs in your lineup.
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