Quarterback Tiers For 2020
I cannot believe that we are finally here. At last, it appears that we will have a (hopefully) normal NFL season. As such, a vast majority of fantasy players are preparing for their upcoming drafts. For many, this “preparation” includes downloading the latest cheatsheet and relying wholly upon that for their draft. By reading articles like these, you are already doing more than those players to improve your chances of success.
However, for those that still cling to those cheatsheets, they suffer from one fatal flaw. Without knowing anything additional about the players, situations, talent, opportunity, etc. how do you know what makes WR 5 better than WR 6 on that list? And how much of a difference is there between these two?
What is Tier-Based Drafting?
This is why many in the fantasy community employ the use of tiers. Tier-based drafting is a strategy that entails clumping players into different tiers in order to determine where major drops in value fall off. Tier-based drafting allows the drafter to see how many players in a particular tier are left at each position. That way, if there are many players left at one position in one tier and just one or two left in a different positional tier, you may be more inclined to take that value before the position becomes more scarce.
Consequently, below we will examine the quarterback position, and divide my personal 2020 rankings into the tiers I will use in my own draft. You can copy them, or use them to make your own 2020 quarterback tiers. Regardless, these tiers will allow me to see value in the position, and ensure that I don’t reach for a player that I shouldn’t. Away we go.
TIER ONE – The Best of the Best
- Lamar Jackson– QB, Baltimore Ravens, ESPN ADP: 17.1
- Patrick Mahomes– QB, Kansas City Chiefs, ESPN ADP: 15.6
This is it. That’s the first tier. The two quarterbacks above represent a ceiling that no other quarterbacks possess. Just last season, Jackson outscored Dak Prescott (who finished 2nd at the position) by nearly 73 points over the season. Meanwhile, Jackson’s 28.11 points per game were almost six points more per game than the next closest QB (Deshaun Watson). Look for Jackson’s high rushing floor to continue in 2020, even if his TD rate progresses. This rushing floor pushes Jackson above Mahomes for me as my QB 1 overall.
While Mahomes only finished as QB 8 last season, Mahomes missed almost three entire games with a dislocated kneecap. We are only one season removed from Mahomes finishing as the QB 1 by 63 points. Both Jackson and Mahomes have added weapons (Clyde Edwards-Helaire and J.K. Dobbins), and look to continue their elite production. While casual players will take both players quite early (as evidenced by their ADPs) I would personally take them near the third round, and feel comfortable doing so.
TIER TWO – Great QB1s…Most Weeks
- Dak Prescott– QB, Dallas Cowboys, ESPN ADP: 55.0
- Kyler Murray– QB, Arizona Cardinals, ESPN ADP: 53.8
- Deshaun Watson– QB, Houston Texans, ESPN ADP: 42.2
- Russell Wilson– QB, Seattle Seahawks, ESPN ADP: 48.5
There is probably no bigger tier break at a position than after the top two QBs. These four QBs represent a strong ceiling as stable QB 1s but also present lower floors than the elite QBs in the first tier. First, Prescott finished as QB 2 last year, setting career highs with 4,902 yards, 30 touchdowns, and another 277 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Prescott has been a top 12 QB each year in the league and looks primed to continue this elite production.
Murray and Watson both were heavily affected by the Deandre Hopkins trade, Murray positively and Watson negatively. Murray finished as QB 7 last season, supported heavily by his 93/544/4 rushing line. With the addition of Hopkins, arguably a top-5 receiver in the league, Murray is poised for a sophomore breakout. Meanwhile, Watson loses Hopkins but gains Brandin Cooks as a capable lead receiver. Before 2019, Cooks had 1,000 or more yards in four straight seasons. If Cooks and Will Fuller can maintain health, we shouldn’t see much of a drop off from Watson and his 22.13 PPG last year.
Lastly, we have Russell Wilson. Wilson always seems to finish in the top tier, despite repeated attempts to focus on the ground game in Seattle. Despite this, Wilson finished as QB 4 in 2019. However, as a run-first offense, Wilson is frustrating to own in fantasy. Wilson threw for 300 yards only three times in 2019 and was saved by a 6% TD/A rate.
Out of this tier, Prescott is the only QB at his current ADP I am considering. With Wilson and Watson being 4/5th round picks, I’d rather pay the reduced price for a different QB later on in the draft. The only possible exception is Prescott, who looks to improve upon his 2019 with improved weapons.
TIER THREE – Eh, They Will Do
- Drew Brees– QB, New Orleans Saints, ESPN ADP: 86.6
- Josh Allen– QB, Buffalo Bills, ESPN ADP: 103.0
- Tom Brady– QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ESPN ADP: 75.3
- Matt Ryan– QB, Atlanta Falcons, ESPN ADP:93.7
- Carson Wentz– QB, Philadelphia Eagles, ESPN ADP: 109.8
- Matthew Stafford– QB, Detroit Lions, ESPN ADP: 127.2
I would be comfortable leaving any 1 QB draft with any of the above options. While the specific round each player typically gets drafted in varies (per ADP between Rounds 7 through 11), each of the above QBs has solid enough a floor to contribute to your team week in and week out. While they may have more bust weeks in 2020 than any quarterback in the first two tiers, their late draft cost balances this out, as they allow you to create strong RB and WR cores.
Out of the above list, Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford are the most interesting. From Week 10 on, once Brees returned from his throwing hand injury, he finished as the QB 2, just behind Jackson. Additionally, the Saints have the 8th fewest vacated targets and acquired Emmanuel Sanders in Free Agency. With no signs of slowing down, I’m all in on Brees in 2020.
Meanwhile, Stafford showed significant improvement with the breakout of Kenny Golladay in 2019. While Stafford missed 8 games with a fractured back, he was QB 4 on a PPG basis throughout the year. Stafford averaged 21.45 PPG, and all of his receiving options return from 2019. Stafford is my #1 target at the position with an 11th round ADP.
TIER FOUR – There’s a Path…
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers, ESPN ADP: 103.6
- Cam Newton, QB, New England Patriots, ESPN ADP: 134.6
- Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants, ESPN ADP: 146.2
- Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams, ESPN ADP: 158.4
- Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers, ESPN ADP: 148.2
This is the point where I’m no longer comfortable with the QB situation. Each of the above players has upside to be a top 12 quarterback any given week in 2020, but it will be much more difficult to predict than in the earlier tiers. For example, in the right matchup, Jones has a week-winning upside, totaling 35 or more fantasy points in four different weeks in 2019. However, Jones struggled versus top-half defenses, as he never put up more than 240 yards against a top 16 defense last season.
If you find yourself in this tier, Cam Newton should be a primary target. While we haven’t seen Newton play a full season since 2018, he finished as the QB 12 that season in just 14 games. Additionally, Newton posted the 8th highest QB PPG at 20.19 that season. This was with a rookie DJ Moore, Christian McCaffrey, and Greg Olsen leading the way. Now, Newton gets Julian Edelman, N’keal Harry, James White, which is not a significant drop off in talent. As such, Newton looks poised to be valuable at his ADP of the 14th QB drafted.
TIER FIVE – Full Stream Ahead
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
- Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
- Baker Mayfield, QB, Cleveland Browns
- Drew Lock, QB, Denver Broncos
- Jimmy Garrapolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers
- Philip Rivers, QB, Indianapolis Colts
- Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers
- Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders
The only reason you should be in this tier is if you fully plan on streaming the QB position throughout the year. None of the above QBs should feel comfortable starting week in and week up. However, all of the above QBs can be streamed in positive matchups. Out of this group, Burrow and Lock have the most upside. Burrow is coming into a great offensive situation in Cincinnati, and Lock received upgrades to his weapons (Jerry Jeudy, Melvin Gordon), as well to his offensive line.
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