#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of Boston Children’s Hospital, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of Mac Jones
Boston Children’s Hospital is dedicated to improving and advancing the health and well-being of children around the world through its life-changing work in clinical care, biomedical research, medical education and community engagement.
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- Division: AFC East
- 2021 Finish: 10-7
- Divisional Record: 3-3
- 2022 Projected Finish: 9-8
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 25th
New England Patriots Offense
Play Caller: Matt Patricia / Joe Judge
Bill Belichick is playing Bill Belichick games once again. The Patriots are playing coy on who the play-caller will be for this offense in 2022. We know that Matt Patricia and Joe Judge will be in the mix, regardless of who is giving Mac Jones the play calls on game day. We can expect the Patriots to continue to be a run-heavy offense with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson splitting the lion’s share of touches. They have also added Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris through the draft, while James White is still on the roster. The Patriots finished eighth in rushing yards (2,151) and fourth in rushing first downs (139) last season. They were last in neutral game script with just a 49% pass rate, which tells you all you need to know about their commitment to the run game.
As for the passing game, the Patriots will have Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Jakobi Meyers back in the mix at wide receiver. They have also added DeVante Parker through a trade with Miami and Tyquon Thornton, who they grabbed in the draft’s second round. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith will handle the tight end duties on a team that I expect will continue to use 12 personnel as part of their sub packages in this offense. Parker adds another red zone target on a team that ranked 25th in wide receiver targets (293), while ranking seventh in running backs (110) and tight end targets (120). Jones is another year older and will have plenty of weapons to distribute the ball to this upcoming season. This offense will go as far as he can take them.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 462 (6th)
- Total Yards: 6,008 (15th)
- Total Plays: 1,052 (22nd)
- Yards Per Play: 5.7 (14th)
- 1st Downs: 362 (9th), Passing 187 (20th), Rushing 139 (4th)
- Scoring Rate: 48% (2nd)
- Turnover Rate: 12.6% (13th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 61.8 (22nd)
- Pace of Play: 29.6 Seconds Per Play (24th)
- Passing Ratio: 54% (26th)
- Neutral Game Script: 49% (32nd)
- RPO: 15 Snaps – 26.7% Success Rate
- Motion: 542 Plays – 38% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 42 Plays – 42.9% Success Rate
- Play Action: 165 Plays – 45.5% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 293 Targets (25th)
RBs: 110 Targets (7th)
TEs: 120 Targets (7th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 621 Plays
OVR: 56% (51% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 70% (50% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 30% (54% Success Rate)
21 Personnel: 261 Plays
OVR: 23% (50% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 29% (49% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 71% (51% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 153 Plays
OVR: 14% (46% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 50% (47% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 50% (45% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #77 Trent Brown
Age: 29 HT: 6’8 WT: 380 College: Florida Draft: RD7 Pick 244
OVR PFF: 78.7 Pass: 81.2 Run: 70.4 (489 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $6,500,000 per year (10th at position) – Expires 2024
LG: #50 Cole Strange
Age: 24 HT: 6’5 WT: 305 College: Chattanooga Draft: RD1 Pick 29
OVR PFF: N/A (Rookie)
Contract: 4 years / $3,063,993 per year (19th at position) – Expires 2026 – 5th year option available
C: #60 David Andrews
Age: 30 HT: 6’3 WT: 300 College: Georgia Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 78.0 Pass: 71.6 Run: 78.6 (1,087 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $4,750,000 per year (14th at position) – Expires 2025
RG: #71 Mike Onwenu
Age: 24 HT: 6’3 WT: 350 College: Michigan Draft: RD6 Pick 182
OVR PFF: 87.0 Pass: 69.8 Run: 89.8 (647 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $874,367 per year (69th at position) – Expires 2024
RT: #76 Isaiah Wynn
Age: 26 HT: 6’2 WT: 310 College: Georgia Draft: RD1 Pick 23
OVR PFF: 74.9 Pass: 70.7 Run: 76.5 (915 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $2,860,478 per year (36th at position) – Expires 2023
“It’s not easy being the quarterback that replaces Tom Brady”
QB Room
#10 Mac Jones
Age: 23 HT: 6’3 WT: 217 College: Alabama Draft: RD1 Pick 15
Contract: 3 years / $3,896,585 per year (34th at position) – Expires 2025 – 5th year option available
It’s safe to say that Belichick has a type at quarterback. He likes quarterbacks with high football IQ’s that can stand in the pocket and deliver the football on time and accurately while offering little to nothing in the run game. It’s not easy being the quarterback that replaces Tom Brady, but year one of the Mac Jones era was a success. Jones completed 67% of his passes for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns. Yes, he threw 13 interceptions, but with the addition of Parker and a healthy rushing attack, I expect Jones to take the next step in his development as a franchise quarterback in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 530 Attempts, 66.6% Comp Rate, 4,055 Yards (7.7 YPA), 27 Touchdowns (5.1%)
Rushing: 44 Attempts, 3.1 YPC, 137 Yards, 1 Touchdown
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#37 Damien Harris
Age: 25 HT: 5’11 WT: 213 College: Alabama Draft: RD3 Pick 87
Contract: 1 year / $907,784 per year (122nd at position) – Expires 2023
Damien Harris was better than advertised in 2021. In just his third season in the NFL, he led the Patriots backfield with 929 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. He was fifth in breakaway runs (14), 12th in red zone touches (46), and 16th in evaded tackles (61). According to Fantasy Pros, Harris finished second in carries inside the 10-yad line and was first in fantasy points per snap. He will start the season as the Patriots RB1 but does not offer pass-catching upside in this offense. However, he should continue to dominate the goal line carries, and touchdowns are always relevant in fantasy football.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 4% Target Share, 21 Targets, 17 Receptions, 127 yards (7.5 YPR), 0 Touchdowns
Rushing: 43% Rush Share, 211 Attempts, 1,011 Yards (4.8 YPC), 10 Touchdowns
#38 Rhamondre Stevenson
Age: 24 HT: 6’0 WT: 230 College: Oklahoma Draft: RD4 Pick 120
Contract: 3 years / $1,057,265 per year (85th at position) – Expires 2025
Rhamondre Stevenson finished his rookie season with 133 carries for 606 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He is the other half of the Patriots’ rushing attack and has solidified his role in this offense heading into the 2022 season. He finished fourth in juke rate (35.4%) and 15th in yards per touch (5.0) and should see his role increase in year two. I think he’s the running back to own in dynasty on this roster.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 8% Target Share, 42 Targets, 33 Receptions, 281 Yards (8.5 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 35% Rush Share, 171 Attempts, 788 Yards (4.6 YPC), 7 Touchdowns
WR Room
#1 Devante Parker
Age: 29 HT: 6’3 WT: 218 College: Louisville Draft: RD1 Pick 14
Contract: 2 years / $10,166,667 per year (33rd at position) – Expires 2024
DeVante Parker, if he can stay healthy, gives Jones another red zone target in this offense. He missed seven games last season but averaged 7.3 targets per game when he played. Parker finished with 40 receptions for 515 yards and two touchdowns but saw his yards per target decrease for the third consecutive season. Parker had his best season in 2019 when he finished with 72 receptions for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns while with the Miami Dolphins. He gives Miami a true X receiver that can win on the outside.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 18% Target Share, 95 Targets, 57 Receptions, 705 Yards (12.4 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
“touchdown rate of .008%, which is well, not good”
#16 Jakobi Meyers
Age: 25 HT: 6’2 WT: 200 College: NC State Draft: UDFA
Contract: 1 year / $3,986,000 per year (52nd at position) – Expires 2023
Jakobi Meyers went undrafted in 2019 despite racking 92 receptions for 1,047 yards in his final season at North Carolina State. The quarterback turned wide receiver did not help himself with a 4.63 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. He was viewed as not fast or athletic enough to succeed at the next level. However, the Patriots signed him as an undrafted free agent, and he’s never looked back. He’s improved in his three years and finished with 126 targets, 83 receptions, 866 yards, and two touchdowns last season. He lined up in the slot 422 times last season and was ranked in the top-20 in route percentage (91%), target share (24.4%), targets, and receptions. The big knock-on Meyers has been his inability to find the endzone with just two touchdowns in three years. For context, he’s been targeted 248 times and only scored two touchdowns for a touchdown rate of .008%, which is well, not good. If he can find a way to be relevant in the red zone, that will go a long way to taking the next step as a top-end slot receiver.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 21% Target Share, 111 Targets, 78 Receptions, 889 Yards (11.4 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
#84 Kendrick Bourne
Age: 27 HT: 6’1 WT: 190 College: Eastern Washington Draft: UDFA
Contract: 2 years / $5,000,000 per year (47th at position) – Expires 2024
Kendrick Bourne is another undrafted free agent that the Patriots have turned into a viable option in the passing game. After spending his first four seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, Bourne put up career-highs in receptions (49) and yards (800), while tying his career-high in touchdowns (5) during his first season with the Patriots. He’s locked in as the Z receiver in this offense and faces competition for touches with second-round draft pick Tyquan Thornton and veteran Nelson Agholor. He’s built a relationship and earned the trust of both Jones and Belichick. Still, it’s worth monitoring how the Patriots use this wide receiver group throughout the preseason and early in the season.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 10% Target Share, 53 Targets, 40 Receptions, 549 Yards (13.7 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
TE Room
#85 Hunter Henry
Age: 27 HT: 6’5 WT: 250 College: Arkansas Draft: RD2 Pick 35
Contract: 2 years / $12,500,000 per year (6th at position) – Expires 2024
There was a lot of talk about how the Patriots would use Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith when they signed both tight ends as free agents last offseason. If you followed the money, you would have been wrong about who would lead this position group on the field. Henry signed a 3-year $37.5 million contract, while his counterpart signed a 4-year $50 million contract. Yet, Henry earned 75 targets that turned into 50 receptions for 603 yards and nine touchdowns. He finished third in target depth (9.6), seventh in red zone targets (17), ninth in yards per touch (8.0), and tenth in air yards (717). He will continue to be a favorite target for Jones, especially in the red zone.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 15% Target Share, 80 Targets, 54 Receptions, 644 Yards (11.9 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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