#Project32 – Miami Dolphins

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Miami Dolphins 2021 projections

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2020 Recap

Division: AFC East

2020 Finish: 10-6 (2nd in AFC East)

2020 Tendencies:

  • Passing Ratio: 57% (18th)
  • Neutral Game Script: 59% (11th)
  • Offensive Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins

Personnel Groupings:

  • 11 Personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 55%
  • 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) = 28%
  • 21 Personnel (2RB, 1TE, 2WR) = 5%
  • 22 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 4%
  • 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) = 3%
  • 20 Personnel (2RB, 0TE, 3WR) = 2%
  • 10 Personnel (1RB, 0TE, 4WR) = 1%
  • 00 Personnel (0RB, 0TE, 5WR) = 1%

Coaching Room

Head Coach: Brian Flores

Brian Flores was officially hired by the Miami Dolphins shortly after his team, the New England Patriots, defeated the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII. Flores was the Defensive Coordinator for the Super Bowl winning team and his defense held the Rams high-powered offense to only three points in a dominating performance. During his 15 years with the Patriots, he was part of four Super Bowl winning teams and got to see first-hand how Bill Belichick built a dynasty from the ground up and created a winning culture. In 2019, his first season as an NFL Head Coach, the Dolphins started the season 0-7 but finished the season 5-4 including a road win against his former team, the Patriots, 27-24 in the season finale. The culture was changing. In 2020, the Dolphins just missed making the playoffs and finished with a 10-6 record and a second-place finish in the AFC East. Heading into his third season in Miami the bar has been raised and anything less than a playoff birth would be a disappointment.

Offensive Coordinators: Eric Studesville and George Godsey

Miami is playing it close to the vest when it comes to what this offense will look like and who will be calling the plays in 2020.  In an odd move, the Dolphins have put this offense in the hands of George Godsey and Eric Studesville as co-offensive coordinators. When asked what this offense will look like or who is leading the way, both Godsey and Studesville, have maintained that It’s a complete cohesive unit that will collaborate and build off of what we do well while incorporating some new wrinkles that gets the most out of our offensive personnel. What we do know is that this will be Tua Tagovailoa’s offense to lead and that the Dolphins have added some weapons including Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller V to add to an offense that already includes Mike Gesicki, DeVante Parker, and Myles Gaskin. The Dolphins finished 2020 ranked seventh in RPO rate and with Tua under center, we can expect to see that number go up along with play action opportunities.

Overall Rank: 15th/32

OL Room

LT Austin Jackson – PFF 52.3, Pass Blocking 53.3, Run Blocking 49.5

Austin Jackson was drafted 18th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft coming out of USC but did not live up to the hype in his rookie season. He’s a monster of a human being with good length and above average footwork but doesn’t have the nastiness you want to see on the offensive line. According to Pro Football Focus, he graded 80 out of 84 tackles in overall grade (52.3) and will need to improve on that dramatically in 2021.

LG Liam Eichenberg (Rookie)

Liam Eichenberg, who was drafted in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, started 38 games during his career at Notre Dame. He only played left tackle in college, but he should challenge Solomon Kindley at the left guard position heading into camp. Kindley finished 2020 ranked 74th among guards with a 51.3 overall grade. With the emergence of Robert Hunt at right tackle during the second half of the season and the draft capital that comes with Austin Jackson, the left guard position creates the best opportunity for Eichenberg to make an immediate impact.

C Matt Skura – PFF 49.1, Pass Blocking 50.2, Run Blocking 55.1

Matt Skura has been an NFL starter during his four seasons with the Baltimore Ravens and should plug right in after arriving in Miami via free agency. Skura suffered an injury to both his MCL and ACL in 2019 and never looked right during the 2020 season but looks to rebound in 2021.

RG Jesse Davis – PFF 62.6, Pass Blocking 62.1, Run Blocking 58.6

Jesse Davis is entering his fifth season in Miami after starting 56 games during his first four years. Davis was the captain of this unit in 2020 and brings versatility to the group after playing left tackle, right guard, and right tackle last season.

RT Robert Hunt – PFF 65.8, Pass Blocking 65.2, Run Blocking 74.0

Robert Hunt was the most impressive of the three rookies that played on the offensive line in 2020 for the Miami Dolphins. The right tackle was one of the highest graded run blocking tackles during the second half of the season and only allowed 23 total pressures and 3 sacks so there is some excitement entering the 2021 season.

New Toys: N/A

Old News: Ereck Flowers (14/14), Ted Karras (16/16)

Overall Rank: 30th/32 

QB Room

Tua Tagovailoa (QB25)

It is officially Tua Time in Miami. Tua Tagovailoa enters his second season in Miami with a clean bill of health and a clear path as the QB1 in Miami. Tua will have a full off-season for the first time in his pro career and will get all the first-team reps in preparation for his sophomore season. His rookie season came with mixed reviews. At times he struggled with a condensed playbook and appeared uncomfortable in the pocket, but at other times, he showed off his accuracy and ability to create plays when off-script. He finished his rookie season with 1814 passing yards and 11 touchdowns while completing 64% of his passes and rushing for three more scores. The Dolphins expect Tua to take the next step and with the weapons he has at the skill positions and a defense that can flip field position and create turnovers the time is now for Tua to lead the Dolphins to the playoffs.

Fantasy Outlook

Passing: 570 attempts, 67.1%, 4274 yards, 29 touchdowns

Rushing: 47 attempts, 200 yards, 2 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 301.0

New Toys: Jacoby Brissett

Old News: Ryan Fitzpatrick (9/7)

Position Fantasy Rank: 27th/32

RB Room

Myles Gaskin (RB23)

Myles Gaskin somehow avoided getting any real competition in the running back room in Miami this off-season. With the Dolphins having two picks in each of the first two rounds in the NFL Draft there was some speculation that they would take a running back. Najee Harris made a lot of sense with the 18th overall pick, but the Dolphins chose to take Jaelen Phillips out of UCLA to fill a need at the LB position. Then there was speculation that the Dolphins might grab Javonte Williams with pick 36, but the Denver Broncos traded up to pick 35 to grab their guy. The Dolphins ended up waiting until round seven to select Gerrid Doaks out of the University of Cincinnati. However, they did sign Malcolm Brown via free agency, but that was simply a depth move and not one that I would consider a threat to Gaskin’s role. With a less than stellar offensive line and the back and forth at the quarterback position, Gaskin was still able to put up 972 scrimmage yards while averaging 5.1 yards per touch. As a runner he averaged 4.0 yards per carry and totalled 584 yards and 3 touchdowns, but what stood out was his work in the passing game. He finished the season with 41 receptions on 47 targets for 388 yards and two touchdowns. He led all qualified running backs in yards per reception (9.5) while finishing third in both yards per route run (2.08) and catch rate (87.2%). Gaskin will look to build on that momentum in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 205 attempts, 862 yards, 6 touchdowns

Receiving: 68 targets, 51 receptions, 369 yards, 2 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 222.4

Salvon Ahmed (RB41)

Salvon Ahmed’s road to the NFL has not been an easy one. After not being selected in the 2020 NFL Draft, he was signed by the San Francisco 49ers as an undrafted free agent to then be waived shortly after due to fumbling issues. Fortunately, Ahmed was then claimed off waivers by Miami but, once again, was waived with final roster cuts. However, he cleared waivers allowing the Dolphins to sign him to their practice squad. He would eventually make his NFL debut in Week 9 and finished the season with 75 rushes for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. He heads into the pre-season as the backup to Myles Gaskin and could be a much bigger contributor in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 131 attempts, 548 yards, 4 touchdowns

Receiving: 40 targets, 30 receptions, 174 yards, 1 touchdown

Total Fantasy Points: 132.1

New Toys: Malcolm Brown

Old News: Matt Breida, DeAndre Washington

Position Fantasy Rank: 16th/32

WR Room

Jaylen Waddle (WR61)

Jaylen Waddle was selected sixth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft and reunites with his college teammate, Tua Tagovailoa. In their only full season together with the Crimson Tide, Waddle had 45 receptions for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns as a true freshman. During his career at Alabama Waddle caught 106 passes for 1999 yards and 17 touchdowns while also returning two punts and a kickoff for scores. Waddle has elite separation and YAC ability with speed that always shows up on film. He is great in space and has a full toolbox of release moves with a unique ability to re-establish the hallway when stemming routes to create route side space. There is no doubt that Waddle will make an immediate impact with the Miami Dolphins and could finish the season leading this room in several receiving metrics.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 85 targets, 60 receptions, 676 yards, 5 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 157.4

Will Fuller V (WR51)

Will Fuller will miss the opening game of the 2021 season due to his six-game suspension for violating the NFL PED policy. Prior to the suspension, Fuller was enjoying the best season of his NFL career with the Houston Texans. In just 11 games he had already surpassed his career high in receptions (53), yards (879), and touchdowns (7). Fuller has never played more than 14 games in a season so Miami is hopeful that he can stay healthy for the 16 games they will have his services. Fuller brings elite speed (4.32) to Miami and gives Tua a deep threat that can line up both inside and outside.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 80 targets, 54 receptions, 835 yards, 7 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 179.8

DeVante Parker (WR76)

DeVante Parker will more than likely be the fourth option in this offense with the additions of Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller. Waddle brings explosiveness and YAC ability while Fuller adds a real deep threat with elite speed and then there is a rising star in Mike Gesicki at the tight end position. Not to mention his game splits with Tua were not impressive. Parker averaged only 3.6 receptions and 43.1 yards with Tua taking snaps compared to 5.6 receptions and 74.6 yards with Fitzpatrick.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 80 targets, 48 receptions, 646 yards, 4 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 136.5

New Toys: N/A

Old News: Isaiah Ford (10/1)

Position Fantasy Rank: 23rd/32

TE Room

Mike Gesicki (TE9)

Mike Gesicki has improved in each of his three years with the Dolphins after they selected him in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft out of Penn State. Gesicki has huge upside as a 6’6” tight end with 4.5 speed that can lineup anywhere on the field and create mismatches. He finished the 2020 season ranked in the top five at the tight end position in several lead measures including air yards (1012), average target distance (11.9), deep targets (16), receiving yards (703), total touchdowns (6), and yards per reception (13.3). However, with the additions of Waddle and Fuller, it remains to be seen if he can continue on that trajectory.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 91 targets, 59 receptions, 776 yards, 7 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 178.9

New Toys: Hunter Long

Old News: N/A

Position Fantasy Rank: 11th/32

2021 Full Player Projections

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Strength of Schedule (SOS): #26 (.471 122-134)

2021 Predicted Finish: 9-8 (3rd AFC East)

Miami Dolphins 2021 projections

Note: all projections are PPR scoring

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