#Project32 – Los Angeles Chargers

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Los Angeles Chargers 2021 projections
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#Project32 Menu

2020 Recap

Division: AFC West

2020 Finish: 7-9 (3rd in AFC West)

2020 Tendencies:

  • Passing Ratio: 57% (17th)
  • Neutral Game Script: 57% (19th)
  • Offensive Scheme: Erhardt-Perkins

Personnel Groupings:

  • 11 Personnel (1RB, 1TE, 3WR) = 71%
  • 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE, 2WR) = 12%
  • 21 Personnel (2RB, 1TE, 2WR) = 9%
  • 22 Personnel (2RB, 2TE, 1WR) = 4%
  • 13 Personnel (1RB, 3TE, 1WR) = 2%

Coaching Room

Head Coach: Brandon Staley

Brandon Staley, 38, takes over as the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers after spending last season with the Los Angeles Rams as the defensive coordinator. The Rams defense finished first in points (18.5), total yards (281.9), and passing yards (190.7) under Staley, which was good enough to land him his first head coaching job at any level. After finishing 7-9 in 2020, the front office felt it was time to move on from Anthony Lynn who finished his last two seasons in LA with a 12-20 record and failed to make the playoffs in three out of four seasons as the head coach. Staley was a surprising hire with only a few years of NFL coaching experience including only one season as a coordinator. He has some talent on the defensive side of the ball including Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Kenneth Murray, and Chris Harris Jr. Staley will be pivotal in making sure this defense lives up to expectations while putting the offense in good situations giving Justin Herbert and this offense the opportunity to score early and often.

Offensive Coordinator: Joe Lombardi

Joe Lombardi comes to the Los Angeles Chargers after spending the last four seasons with the New Orleans Saints as the quarterbacks coach. That was his second stint with the Saints after also serving as an offensive assistant and quarterbacks coach from 2007-2013. The Saints won a Super Bowl with Lombardi as the quarterbacks coach in 2009. He would also play a key role in the success of Drew Brees, who set numerous passing records during his Hall of Fame career. The offense they ran in New Orleans attacked the middle of the field which is not exactly what Justin Herbert did in 2020. He was more comfortable taking shots and using his arm to pick apart defenses in the intermediate to vertical passing game. Lombardi has a lot to work with in this offense with Herbert behind center, a wide receiver trio that features Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Josh Palmer, to go along with one of the better pass-catchers in the backfield in Austin Ekeler. The Chargers have also added Jared Cook to replace Hunter Henry, so this offense has some pieces to work with. And yes, Joe Lombardi is the grandson of the great Vince Lombardi so there is that.

Overall Rank: 23rd/32

OL Room

LT Rashawn Slater (Rookie)

Rashawn Slater is only one of many college players that opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19. He was selected 13th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft out of Northwestern becoming the first offensive lineman selected in the first round by the Chargers since D.J. Fluker back in 2013. Slater received rave reviews for his footwork and speed while showing a high football IQ. There are question marks about his length and whether he can play tackle at the NFL level, but we are about to find out.

LG Matt Feiler – PFF 65.9, Pass Blocking 71.9, Run Blocking 61.7

Matt Feiler spent his first five seasons in the NFL with the Pittsburgh Steelers and after getting very little playing time over his first two seasons, he became a full-time starter in 2018 and has never looked back. Feiler had his lowest Overall PFF Grade in 2020 over the last four seasons and will need to improve on that number in 2021. He is more than adequate in the passing game but finished as the 41st ranked guard in Run Block Grade.

C Corey Linsley – PFF 86.4, Pass Blocking 82.7, Run Blocking 83.4

Corey Linsley was acquired by the Los Angeles Chargers via free agency after spending the last seven years with the Green Bay Packers. The former fifth round pick out of Ohio State has put together a very solid career with 99 starts and finished the 2020 season as a First-Team All-Pro selection. He finished first in Overall PFF Grade, second in Run Block Grade, and fourth in Pass Block Grade. He becomes a major part of the overhaul on the offensive line.

RG Oday Aboushi – PFF 66.6, Pass Blocking 65.3, Run Blocking 68.0

Oday Aboushi will be playing for his sixth team in eight years after signing with the Chargers via free agency. Aboushi is coming off his best Overall PFF Grade since 2014 when he scored a 71.7. He’s never reached the 70.0 mark in any season since then and has never started more than 10 games in a single season and 2020 was the first time he actually played in all sixteen games. It is possible the Chargers could go with rookie fifth round pick, Brendan Jaimes if Aboushi can’t lock this spot down through training camp and the pre-season.

RT Bryan Bulaga – PFF 61.6, Pass Blocking 65.1, Run Blocking 53.0

Bryan Bulaga was a first round draft pick (23rd overall) out of the University of Iowa by the Green Bay Packers in 2010 and spent the first nine years of his career there before signing with the Los Angeles Chargers as a free agent. In 2020, he missed six games due to multiple injuries and has only played a full sixteen-game schedule three times in his career. Bulaga enters his second season with the Chargers and hopes to make a bigger impact in 2021. Staying healthy for a full season would be a great start.

New Toys: N/A

Old News: Dan Feeney (16/16), Forrest Lamp (16/16), Sam Tevi (14/14), Trai Turner (9/9)

Overall Rank: 17th/32

QB Room

Justin Herbert (QB7)

Justin Herbert was not considered a can’t-miss prospect coming out of Oregon by some NFL Scouts and analysts. The arm strength and athleticism were obvious and there were even some comparisons to Josh Allen, but some were concerned about his fumbles, his inability to get rid of the football on time, his play against top opponents, and his ability to work through progressions and trust his arm talent. The Chargers felt differently and made him the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.  The decision was made by former head coach, Anthony Lynn, to start the season with Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback, but just before the start of a Week 2 game against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team doctor went to administer a pain-killing injection and somehow punctured Taylor’s lung. Justin Herbert was thrust into the starting lineup and he would finish the game with 311 yards passing with 1 touchdown pass and another rushing touchdown. The Chargers would lose in OT to the defending Super Bowl Champions, but the Justin Herbert era had begun. Herbert finished the season with 4336 yards passing and 31 touchdowns, completing 66.6% of his passes and rushing for another 234 yards and five touchdowns. Herbert has the ability to challenge for the top spot in total fantasy points at the quarterback position and looks to lead this team to the playoffs in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook

Passing: 630 attempts, 68.7%, 5115 yards, 38 touchdowns

Rushing: 66 attempts, 335 yards, 3 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 386.1

New Toys: Chase Daniel

Old News: Tyrod Taylor (2/1)

Position Fantasy Rank: 7th/32

RB Room

Austin Ekeler (RB7)

Austin Ekeler is primed for a monster season in 2021. Ekeler has always been one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL, but this year he looks to get more of the workload in the rushing game as well. Ekeler missed six games in 2020, but still finished the season with 933 scrimmage yards including 530 yards rushing and 403 yards receiving to go along with five total touchdowns. Ekeler has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over his four years in the NFL to go along with a catch rate of 81.2%. He finished the 2019 season with 1550 scrimmage yards and there is no doubt, if he stays healthy, that 2021 will be his best season as a pro.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 188 attempts, 847 yards, 6 touchdowns

Receiving: 113 targets, 91 receptions, 826 yards, 4 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 318.0

Justin Jackson (RB67)

Justin Jackson will battle with Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree for the RB2 spot in this backfield. Kelley struggled in his rookie season with only 3.2 yards per carry and Rountree will be entering his rookie season so there is an opportunity for Jackson to be the early season RB2 behind Ekeler. Jackson took advantage of his opportunities in 2020 averaging 4.6 yards per carry and hauling in 19 receptions for 173 yards, but he did fail to get in the endzone on 78 total touches. Truth be told, he has only seen the endzone twice in his three-year career with 181 total touches. The reality is that this could be a true running back by committee when Ekeler comes off the field.

Fantasy Outlook

Rushing: 79 attempts, 323 yards, 3 touchdowns

Receiving: 13 targets, 10 receptions, 66 yards, 0 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 67.0

New Toys: Larry Rountree III

Old News: Kalen Ballage (8/2)

Position Fantasy Rank: 6th/32

WR Room

Keenan Allen (WR11)

Keenan Allen is entering his ninth year with the Chargers and has been selected to four consecutive Pro Bowls. In those four years, Allen is averaging 148 targets, 101 receptions, 1195 yards, and 6.5 touchdowns per season. He had instant rapport with Justin Herbert who threw his way ten or more times in 10 different games. With a new offensive coordinator, Allen hopes to be more involved in the vertical passing game as his aDOT (average depth of target) was only 7.2 yards last season, which was down almost three yards from his 10.1 aDOT in 2019. Allen has never had a season with more than eight touchdowns, but I have a sneaky feeling this is the year he could get to double digit touchdowns.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 164 targets, 111 receptions, 1281yards, 9 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 293.5

Mike Williams (WR40)

Mike Williams has always been the vertical threat in this offense and led the NFL in yards per reception (20.4) in 2019, which is also the only season he had more than 1000 yards receiving. Early reports in camp have indicated that the Chargers plan to move him around in this offense to create mismatches, which should mean a more complete route tree in 2021.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 101 targets, 60 receptions, 919 yards, 9 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 206.4

Josh Palmer (WR79)

Josh Palmer was a prospect that was not talked about a lot in the fantasy football community coming out of Tennessee. He suffered from playing in a bad offense compounded even further with bad quarterback play. The film simply didn’t stand out and there was nothing that made you feel like he was guaranteed success at the next level. He doesn’t give you WR1 upside, but he can be a sneaky WR3 in this offense with a quarterback that can make every throw. Reports from camp indicate that he’s making a name for himself and has picked up the nuances of this offense quickly.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 63 targets, 39 receptions, 629 yards, 4 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 126.0

New Toys: N/A

Old News: N/A

Position Fantasy Rank: 15th/32

TE Room

Jared Cook (TE20)

Jared Cook has been quite the journeyman during his 12-year career and will be joining his sixth team in 2021. Cook was selected to the Pro Bowl following his 2018 and 2019 seasons in Oakland and New Orleans, respectively. He replaces Hunter Henry, who is now in new England, on a team that targeted the tight end 123 times last season. There is familiarity with this offense as both Cook and new offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, came to Los Angeles from the New Orleans Saints. With the Saints last season, Cook was targeted 60 times and finished with 37 receptions and 504 yards while snagging seven touchdowns.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 69 targets, 47 receptions, 542 yards, 6 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 137.3

Donald Parham (TE40)

Donald Parham needed to be included in this breakdown for two reasons: He stands 6’8 and came from the XFL. The reality is that Cook is the TE1 in this offense and that’s crystal clear, but the TE2 spot is up for grabs. In 2020, Parham had 10 receptions for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns, which means 33% of the time he caught the ball, he scored. Cool, right? Truth be told, he was used as a red zone specialist last season, but he has deceptive speed for a big guy and has worked hard this off-season to increase his lower body strength and his route running. We will see just how much that hard work pays off very soon.

Fantasy Outlook

Receiving: 38 targets, 25 receptions, 280 yards, 2 touchdowns

Total Fantasy Points: 64.6

New Toys: Tre’ McKitty

Old News: Hunter Henry

Position Fantasy Rank: 15th/32

2021 Full Player Projections

Make Your Own Projections With Our Template!

Strength of Schedule (SOS): #17 (.496 126-128-1)

2021 Predicted Finish: 10-7 (2nd AFC West)

Los Angeles Chargers 2021 projections
Note: all projections are PPR scoring

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