#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of Shine A Light, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ charity from top Tight End Darren Waller.
Due to his special place in the game, the Las Vegas Raiders #Project32 page would also like to shout out to the John Madden Legacy Commitment to Education.
Shine A Light is a non profit homeless outreach and placement service that helps the hundreds of homeless men, women and children in the greater Las Vegas area. Our primary focus is individuals who live in the underground flood channels of Las Vegas. The program prides itself on going into the depths of the storm-drain system and engaging this underserved, hidden population on a personal level.
#Project32 Menu
- Division: AFC West
- 2021 Finish: 10-7
- Divisional Record: 3-3
- 2022 Projected Finish: 10-7
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 30th
Las Vegas Raiders Offense
Play Caller: Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels is the new Head Coach of the Las Vegas Raiders and will pull double duty as the play-caller for an offense that appears ready for takeoff. Almost immediately after arriving in Las Vegas, McDaniels traded for Davante Adams, considered one of the best, if not THE best, wide receivers in the NFL. Adams joins an offense that already has Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow, along with veteran quarterback Derek Carr. So, what does Josh McDaniels do with all this talent?
Let’s start with the run game. McDaniels likes a run game that thrives on working between the tackles with power and counter concepts. This should be a better fit for Jacobs as he looks to get more vertical versus horizontal in this gap scheme. The Raiders added Zamir White out of the University of Georgia, who, I believe, has an opportunity to take on some of the short-yardage and goal-line work as the second option in this offense. Kenyan Drake should still be utilized as a pass-catcher, but as a runner, he was better suited for the zone scheme from a season ago, so it will be interesting to see how the rushing shares get divided throughout training camp.
As for the passing game, he has an elite wide receiver in Adams that can win at every level and is an absolute menace in the red zone. Did I mention that Adams and Carr played together in college at Fresno State? It won’t take long to rekindle the chemistry between these two. McDaniels has his Wes Welker clone in the slot, Hunter Renfrow, who excels on option routes and finding bubbles in zone coverage. Think Randy Moss and Welker from the 2007 New England Patriots. The difference is instead of Ben Watson at tight end, you get Darren Waller, who has 252 receptions for 3,006 yards and 14 touchdowns over the last three seasons. If you plan on winning the AFC West, you better be able to score early and often. This offense is set up to do just that.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 374 (18th)
- Total Yards: 6,184 (11th)
- Total Plays: 1,082 (13th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.7 (12th)
- 1st Downs: 349 (15th), Passing 217 (8th), Rushing 95 (25th)
- Scoring Rate: 41% (14th)
- Turnover Rate: 12.8% (21st)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 64.1 (12th)
- Pace of Play: 28.6 Seconds Per Play (13th)
- Passing Ratio: 63% (2nd)
- Neutral Game Script: 60% (6th)
- RPO: 63 Snaps
- Motion: 373 Plays
- No Huddle: 71 Plays
- Play Action: 136 Plays
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 317 Targets (19th)
RBs: 145 Targets (2nd)
TEs: 141 Targets (8th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 705 Plays
OVR: 62% (49% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 72% (48% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 28% (54% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 204 Plays
OVR: 18% (53% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 59% (48% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 41% (61% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #74 Kolton Miller
Age: 26 HT: 6’8 WT: 325 College: UCLA Draft: RD1 Pick 15
OVR PFF: 84.0 Pass: 84.4 Run: 76.3 (1,139 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $18,005,000 per year (6th at position) – Expires 2026
LG: #76 John Simpson
Age: 24 HT: 6’4 WT: 321 College: Clemson Draft: RD4 Pick 109
OVR PFF: 52.6 Pass: 62.7 Run: 46.5 (1,112 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $1,022,946 per year (47th at position) – Expires 2024
C: #68 Andre James
Age: 25 HT: 6’4 WT: 300 College: UCLA Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 64.1 Pass: 67.2 Run 61.7 (1,139 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $4,325,000 per year (16th at position) – Expires 2024
RG: #67 Lester Cotton Sr.
Age: 26 HT: 6’4 WT: 335 College: Alabama Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 58.5 Pass: 73.4 Run 57.6 (5 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $895,000 per year (65th at position) – Expires 2023
RT: #75 Brandon Parker
Age: 26 HT: 6’8 WT: 320 College: NC A&T Draft: RD3 Pick 65
OVR PFF: 55.8 Pass: 54.0 Run: 56.8 (881 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $3,500,000 per year (17th at position) – Expires 2023
“Carr could have the best season of his NFL career”
QB Room
#4 Derek Carr
Age: 31 HT: 6’3 WT: 210 College: Fresno State Draft: RD2 Pick 36
Contract: 4 years / $40,474,160 per year (6th at position) – Expires 2026
Derek Carr enters his ninth season in the NFL, coming off his best season as a professional footballer. In 2021, he led the Raiders to the playoffs after completing 68% of his passes for 4,804 yards and 23 touchdowns while throwing a career-high 626 times. Over his last four seasons, he has finished at a 67% or better completion rate and has four consecutive seasons over 4,000 yards passing. However, he’s only thrown for 30 or more touchdowns once, dating back to 2015 when he had 32 and was selected to his first Pro Bowl. Enter Adams and McDaniels. If the Raiders can get improved play from the offensive line and establish the running game, Carr could have the best season of his NFL career.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 622 Attempts, 69.3% Comp Rate, 4,746 Yards (7.6 YPA), 35 Touchdowns (5.6%)
Rushing: 41 Attempts, 3.1 YPC, 129 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#28 Josh Jacobs
Age: 24 HT: 5’10 WT: 220 College: Alabama Draft: RD1 Pick 24
Contract: 1 year / $2,983,350 per year (23rd at position) – Expires 2023
Josh Jacobs started his NFL career with two straight seasons of over 1,000 yards rushing while finding the end zone 19 times. In 2021, he had a career-low 217 carries for only 872 yards, but he did score nine rushing touchdowns and hauled in a career-best 54 passes for 348 yards. He should continue to see RB1 volume in 2022, but his future in Las Vegas is uncertain.
The Raiders have declined the fifth-year option on Jacobs’ rookie contract making the 2022 season, in essence, a play-for-pay scenario.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 9% Target Share, 56 Targets, 44 Receptions, 310 yards (7.0 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 57% Rush Share, 236 Attempts, 993 Yards (4.2 YPC), 9 Touchdowns
#35 Zamir White
Age: 22 HT: 6’0 WT: 215 College: Georgia Draft: RD4 Pick 122
Contract: 4 years / $1,100,981 per year (78th at position) – Expires 2026
Zamir White gets the nod for me as the RB2 in this offense based on the new gap scheme I expect McDaniels to incorporate this season. White showed tremendous contact balance and the ability to blend power and elusiveness during his time at the University of Georgia. His ability to always fall forward and drag defenders through contact should bode well for him as a pro. However, he has torn both ACL’s, so there is concern in terms of his ability to stay healthy. He does not give you much in the passing game and does not look comfortable in pass-pro, so Jacobs and Drake will share pass-catching duties for the Raiders.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 1% Target Share, 6 Targets, 5 Receptions, 30 Yards (6.0 YPR), 0 Touchdowns
Rushing: 18% Rush Share, 75 Attempts, 306 Yards (4.1 YPC), 3 Touchdowns
WR Room
#17 Davante Adams
Age: 29 HT: 6’1 WT: 215 College: Fresno State Draft: RD 2 Pick 53
Contract: 5 years / $28,000,000 per year (2nd at position) – Expires 2027
Davante Adams is the definition of an alpha receiver in the NFL. He has a complete toolbox for releasing moves, an insane ability to manipulate defenders through route progressions, and runs an entire route tree at an elite level. According to Matt Harmon at Reception Perception, he’s the best route runner in the NFL. He beats man coverage at a 79.6% clip, zone coverage at an 87.6% clip, and press coverage at a rate of 85.9%. He was double-teamed more than any receiver in the history of Reception Perception at 22.7%, but his success rate was 81.0%. That’s insane efficiency.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 25% Target Share, 156 Targets, 109 Receptions, 1,426 Yards (13.1 YPR), 13 Touchdowns
“looks like a college student that delivers pizza to pay off his student loans”
#13 Hunter Renfrow
Age: 26 HT: 5’10 WT: 185 College: Clemson Draft: RD5 Pick 149
Contract: 3 years / $15,850,000 per year (22nd at position) – Expires 2025
Hunter Renfrow looks like a college student that delivers pizza to pay off his student loans. But he’s improved in his three years in the NFL on the football field. He finished the 2021 season with 128 targets, 103 receptions, 1,038 yards, and nine touchdowns. He has quietly become one of the best slot receivers in the league. He finished ninth in slot snaps (460), sixth in red zone targets (24), ninth in yards after catch (447), and fifth in target separation (2.14). He doesn’t provide much in the deep passing game but is efficient in the short to intermediate areas of the field.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 18% Target Share, 112 Targets, 84 Receptions, 874 Yards (10.4 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
#11 Demarcus Robinson
Age: 27 HT: 6’1 WT: 202 College: Florida Draft: RD4 Pick 126
Contract: 1 year / $1,187,500 per year (125th at position) – Expires 2023
Demarcus Robinson comes to the Raiders after spending his first six seasons in the NFL with the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s been able to carve out a decent career in the NFL but has never been more than a part-time starter, with only 42 career starts in 97 games. He should be the WR3 in this offense behind Adams and Renfrow in three-receiver sets, but could face some competition with Mack Hollins, Keelan Cole, and Tyron Johnson.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 7% Target Share, 44 Targets, 26 Receptions, 303 Yards (11.7 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
TE Room
#83 Darren Waller
Age: 29 HT: 6’6 WT: 255 College: Georgia Tech Draft: RD6 Pick 204
Contract: 2 years / $7,575,001 per year (17th at position) – Expires 2024
Darren Waller is the best thing Jon Gruden ever did for the Las Vegas Raiders. He discovered Waller in a dual practice with the Baltimore Ravens and the Raiders have never looked back. He combined for 262 targets, 197 receptions, 2,341 yards, and 12 touchdowns in the 2019-20 seasons and played in his first Pro Bowl in 2020. In 2021, he missed six games due to various injuries and testing positive for COVID-19. He finished last season with just 55 receptions for 665 yards and two touchdowns in 11 games. His projections over 17 games in 2021 would have put him at 85 receptions, 1,027 yards, and three touchdowns. It’s worth noting that outside of 2020 when he scored nine touchdowns, he’s never had more than three in any other season. If he can stay healthy in 2022, I have no doubt he finished between 7-10 touchdowns.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 19% Target Share, 118 Targets, 83 Receptions, 976 Yards (11.8 YPR), 8 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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