#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of Friends Helping Friends, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of Mecole Hardman
Humans are wired for compassion – we see a friend, family member, or a neighbor in need and we want to help. It’s just our nature. We don’t always know how to help, but in 1977 a small group of friends figured out that they could create a way. And that group – having grown to over 90 members – continues to this day. Over the years, we have provided more than one million dollars of assistance to individuals and families in our local community!
#Project32 Menu
- Division: AFC West
- 2021 Finish: 12-5
- Divisional Record: 5-1
- 2022 Projected Finish: 11-6
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 32nd
Kansas City Chiefs Offense
Play Caller: Andy Reid
Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs offense is moving on without Tyreek Hill after he left for the Miami Dolphins in exchange for several draft picks over the next two years. If you listen to the chatter, the Chiefs offense is expected to take a step back, and there are questions about what this offense will look like in the post-Tyreek era. The Chiefs have added Skyy Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and JuJu Smith Schuster to the wide receiver room, so we can expect this offense to look a little different in terms of how they attack opposing defenses in 2022.
The Chiefs threw the ball early and often last season, including 58% on early down situations while ranking first in the NFL in RPO and pre-snap motion plays. With Hill now gone, I expect this team to use RPO and pre-snap motion still, but not at the level it did last season. I hope to see more designed run plays behind an improved offensive line. They should continue to see lighter boxes upfront because of the big play ability of this offense and Patrick Mahomes, which means more room to run for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ronald Jones, and Jerick McKinnon. This will set up more play-action to take calculated shots downfield with MVS and Mecole Hardman while giving Travis Kelce, Moore, and Smith-Schuster more room to work in the short to intermediate areas of the field. Don’t bet against Reid and Mahomes.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 480 (4th)
- Total Yards: 6,746 (3rd)
- Total Plays: 1,134 (5th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.9 (5th)
- 1st Downs: 419 (1st), Passing 267 (2nd), Rushing 119 (12th)
- Scoring Rate: 48.2% (1st)
- Turnover Rate: 13.7% (26th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 69.7 (1st)
- Pace of Play: 27.6 Seconds Per Play (4th)
- Passing Ratio: 62% (6th)
- Neutral Game Script: 62% (3rd)
- RPO: 242 Snaps
- Motion: 726 Plays
- No Huddle: 26 Plays
- Play Action: 202 Plays
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 367 Targets (9th)
RBs: 112 Targets (14th)
TEs: 157 Targets (5th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 924 Plays
OVR: 67% (55% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 72% (53% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 28% (58% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 270 Plays
OVR: 20% (57% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 50% (54% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 50% (60% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #57 Orlando Brown Jr.
Age: 26 HT: 6’8 WT: 340 College: Oklahoma Draft: RD3 Pick 83
OVR PFF: 75.4 Pass: 74.4 Run: 68.4 (1,127 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $16,662,000 per year (9th at position) Franchise Tag – Expires 2023
LG: #62 Joe Thuney
Age: 29 HT: 6’5 WT: 304 College: NC State Draft: RD3 Pick 78
OVR PFF: 80.5 Pass: 88.8 Run: 71.3 (1,184 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $16,000,000 per year (1st at position) – Expires 2026
C: #52 Creed Humphrey
Age: 23 HT: 6’5 WT: 309 College: Oklahoma Draft: RD2 Pick 63
OVR PFF: 91.4 Pass: 80.4 Run 92.5 (1,184 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $1,391,302 per year (30th at position) – Expires 2025
RG: #65 Trey Smith
Age: 23 HT: 6’6 WT: 321 College: Tennessee State Draft: RD6 Pick 226
OVR PFF: 72.3 Pass: 63.6 Run 75.9 (1,194 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $902,676 per year (60th at position) – Expires 2025
RT: #77 Andrew Wylie
Age: 27 HT: 6’5 WT: 304 College: Eastern Michigan Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 67.2 Pass: 57.8 Run: 77.6 (527 Snaps)
Contract: 1 years / $2,537,500 per year (38th at position) – Expires 2023
“as long as #15 is taking snaps behind center, the Chiefs will be in the Super Bowl conversation”
QB Room
#15 Patrick Mahomes
Age: 26 HT: 6’2 WT: 225 College: Texas Tech Draft: RD1 Pick 10
Contract: 10 years / $45,000,000 per year (4th at position) – Expires 2032
As the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs over the last four seasons, Patrick Mahomes has won a Super Bowl, a league MVP, been selected as a First-Team All-Pro, played in four Pro Bowls, and thrown for 18,707 yards and 151 touchdowns. I should also mention that he’s led the Chiefs to a 50-13 record over the last four years. Despite all his accomplishments, many no longer view Mahomes as the best quarterback in the league due to the sudden rise of guys like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Mahomes is perfectly content with letting these guys have their time in the spotlight, but make no mistake, he will be ready to go in 2022. This offense may have lost Hill, but there are plenty of weapons in Kansas City, and as long as #15 is taking snaps behind center, the Chiefs will be in the Super Bowl conversation.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 681 Attempts, 67.0% Comp Rate, 5,019 Yards (7.4 YPA), 38 Touchdowns (5.6%)
Rushing: 62 Attempts, 5.3 YPC, 329 Yards, 2 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#25 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Age: 23 HT: 5’8 WT: 207 College: LSU Draft: RD1 Pick 32
Contract: 2 years / $2,705,394 per year (24th at position) – Expires 2024 – 5th year option available
Many believed that Clyde Edwards-Helaire landed in the perfect offense for his skillset when he was drafted in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Kansas City Chiefs. He finished his rookie season with 1,100 total yards and five touchdowns while missing three games. Expectations were higher in 2021, but he would miss another seven games and only finished with 517 yards rushing and four touchdowns on the ground. He added 138 yards receiving and two more touchdowns through the air. He now enters his third season in the NFL, and there is competition in the backfield with the addition of Ronald Jones and the return of Jerick McKinnon.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 8% Target Share, 54 Targets, 39 Receptions, 264 yards (6.8 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 40% Rush Share, 165 Attempts, 728 Yards (4.4 YPC), 6 Touchdowns
#2 Ronald Jones
Age: 24 HT: 5’11 WT: 205 College: USC Draft: RD2 Pick 38
Contract: 1 year / $1,500,000 per year (46th at position) – Expires 2023
Ronald Jones looked like he may have figured out how to be a lead back in the NFL entering the 2021 season after posting 978 yards rushing (5.1 YPC) and seven rushing touchdowns in the previous season. As it turned out, Tom Brady did not trust him in the passing game, and the Buccaneers turned to Leonard Fournette, who would finish with almost 1,300 total yards and ten touchdowns. Jones is now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, and will once again get a chance to compete for opportunities in a high-powered offense. He does not have the receiving skills that either CEH or McKinnon possesses, but he could add excitement to this backfield as a runner. If CEH were to miss some time again, there is a clear path for Jones to be the lead back in this offense.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 2% Target Share, 13 Targets, 10 Receptions, 68 Yards (6.8 YPR), 0 Touchdowns
Rushing: 33% Rush Share, 136 Attempts, 587 Yards (4.3 YPC), 4 Touchdowns
WR Room
#9 JuJu Smith-Schuster
Age: 25 HT: 6’1 WT: 215 College: USC Draft: RD 2 Pick 62
Contract: 1 year / $3,250,000 per year (64th at position) – Expires 2023
JuJu Smith-Schuster will get every opportunity to be the WR1 in this offense. He missed 12 games last season, but in 2020 he finished with 128 targets, 97 receptions, 831 yards, and nine touchdowns in Pittsburgh. In 2018, his only Pro Bowl season, he collected 111 receptions for 1,426 yards, and seven touchdowns. He’s a proven receiver coming to an offense that should feature him in the quick game and allow him to create some splash plays after the catch. He’s had three touchdowns over 75 yards in his career, including two such plays of 97 yards in 2017 and 2018. If his focus is 100% on football and not on TikTok, there is no reason he doesn’t earn 100+ targets in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 18% Target Share, 121 Targets, 87 Receptions, 909 Yards (10.4 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
#24 Skyy Moore
Age: 21 HT: 5’10 WT: 195 College: Western Michigan Draft: RD2 Pick 54
Contract: 4 years / $1,612,627 per year (102nd at position) – Expires 2026
Skyy Moore exploded in his final season at Western Michigan with 95 receptions for 1,292 yards and ten touchdowns. He should be the WR2 in this offense after being selected in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. He brings an ability to create yards after the catch, which will, in turn, earn the trust of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. My expectations are high for Skyy (rhyme not intended), and I will pay close attention to his usage throughout the preseason and the reps he gets with the first team offense.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 14% Target Share, 94 Targets, 66 Receptions, 714 Yards (10.8 YPR), 5 Touchdowns
“This could be a career year for MVS and I’m here for it”
#11 Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Age: 27 HT: 6’4 WT: 206 College: USF Draft: RD5 Pick 174
Contract: 3 years / $10,000,000 per year (33rd at position) – Expires 2025
Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be counted on to be the receiver that “takes the top off” in this offense. Not a bad role in having in an offense that has Mahomes. He has averaged 17.5 yards per reception during his four years in the NFL, including a league-leading 20.9 in 2020, while playing with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. He has the size (6’4) and speed (4.37) to wreak havoc in the deep passing game while defenses focus on stopping Kelce and Smith-Schuster. This could be a career year for MVS and I’m here for it.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 81 Targets, 53 Receptions, 800 Yards (15.1 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
#17 Mecole Hardman
Age: 24 HT: 5’10 WT: 187 College: Georgia Draft: RD2 Pick 56
Contract: 1 year / $1,248,763 per year (118th at position) – Expires 2023
Mecole Hardman has seen his targets, receptions, and yards improve from year to year through his first three seasons in the NFL. On the other hand, his touchdown rate has dipped in each of his first three seasons as he finished with just two touchdowns last season on 59 receptions. With the additions of MVS, Moore, and Smith-Schuster, Hardman could be the fourth or fifth option in this offense. Yes, there is familiarity in the system and a relationship with Mahomes, but there is a reason the Chiefs brought in three more receivers, and it doesn’t look good for Hardman. However, this offense will continue to throw the ball so there will be room for him in this offense. Just how much room remains to be seen.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 9% Target Share, 61 Targets, 41 Receptions, 512 Yards (12.5 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
TE Room
#87 Travis Kelce
Age: 32 HT: 6’5 WT: 250 College: Cincinnati Draft: RD3 Pick 63
Contract: 4 years / $14,312,500 per year (2nd at position) – Expires 2026
Travis Kelce will turn 33 this season, but there is nothing about his play that makes you feel like father time has caught up to him. He finished the 2021 season with 134 targets, 92 receptions, 1,125 yards receiving, and nine touchdowns. With the departure of Hill, we could see this offense run through Kelce. There is an old saying that “numbers don’t lie, people do,” which may be appropriate when talking about Kelce. Some believe the decline is coming this season, but I’m simply not buying it.
He finished the 2021 season first in routes run (543), yards after catch (606), expected fantasy points per game (18.0), and total touchdowns (10). He was second in fantasy points per game (16.4), receptions (92), receiving yards (1125), and route participation (84.3%). I could keep going with advanced stats and metrics that put him in elite company year in and year out, but I think you get the point. Kelce is not done just yet.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 20% Target Share, 135 Targets, 98 Receptions, 1,261 Yards (12.9 YPR), 13 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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