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- Division: AFC South
- 2021 Finish: 4-13
- Divisional Record: 3-3
- 2022 Projected Finish: 5-12
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 28th
Houston Texans Offense
Play Caller: Pep Hamilton
The Houston Texans offense was not good in 2021. That is a clear and obvious understatement to say the least. The Texans finished 30th in points scored, 32nd in rushing yards, 31st in yards per play, 31st in scoring rate, and 30th in offensive plays per game. I could keep going, but I think you get the point. The Texans have brought in Pep Hamilton to take over this offense and he will look to take his experience working with Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert to elevate the play of second-year quarterback Davis Mills. Hamilton is known as an advocate of the West Coast offensive scheme and will look to establish the run as a cornerstone of this offense in 2022.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 280 (30th)
- Total Yards: 4,727 (30th)
- Total Plays: 1,010 (30th)
- Yards Per Play: 4.7 (31st)
- 1st Downs: 266 (32nd), Passing 162 (32nd), Rushing 77 (31st)
- Scoring Rate: 26.6% (31st)
- Turnover Rate: 11.2% (13th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 59.4 (30th)
- Pace of Play: 29.3 Seconds Per Play (20th)
- Passing Ratio: 58% (17th)
- Neutral Game Script: 54% (20th)
- RPO: 78 Snaps – 26.93% Success Rate
- Motion: 355 Plays – 28.7% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 76 Plays – 48.7% Success Rate
- Play Action: 144 Plays – 35.4% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 319 Targets (18th)
RBs: 104 Targets (20th)
TEs: 100 Targets (20th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 617 Plays
OVR: 61% (43% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 70% (44% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 30% (42% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 276 Plays
OVR: 27% (43% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 36% (48% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 64% (40% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #78 Laremy Tunsil
Age: 28 HT: 6’5 WT: 313 College: Ole Miss Draft: RD1 Pick 13
OVR PFF: 60.8 Pass: 75.2 Run: 45.0 (262 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $22,000,000 per year (3rd at position) – Expires 2024
LG: #64 Justin McCray
Age: 30 HT: 6’3 WT: 315 College: UCF Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 51.0 Pass: 32.7 Run: 59.2 (545 Snaps)
Contract: 1 years / $2,000,000 per year (23rd at position) – Expires 2023
C: #68 Justin Britt
Age: 31 HT: 6’6 WT: 315 College: Missouri Draft: RD2 Pick 64
OVR PFF: 63.9 Pass: 53.7 Run: 70.5 (671 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $4,500,000 per year (15th at position) – Expires 2024
RG: #60 A.J. Cann
Age: 30 HT: 6’3 WT: 320 College: South Carolina Draft: RD3 Pick 67
OVR PFF: 47.7 Pass: 32.6 Run: 53.7 (198 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $4,250,000 per year (15th at position) – Expires 2024
RT: #71 Tytus Howard
Age: 26 HT: 6’5 WT: 322 College: Alabama State Draft: RD1 Pick 23
OVR PFF: 51.4 Pass: 70.1 Run: 42.5 (927 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $3,056,388 per year (34th at position) – Expires 2024
“The stage is set for Davis Mills to entrench himself as “the dude” in Houston”
QB Room
#10 Davis Mills
Age: 23 HT: 6’4 WT: 225 College: Stanford Draft: RD3 Pick
Contract: 3 years / $1,305,525 per year (62nd at position) – Expires 2025
Davis Mills did not get off to a good start in 2021, but he showed some flashes late in the season that gave the franchise confidence they may have their quarterback of the future. The best thing that can happen to the Texans is 2022 is that Mills shows the growth and leadership becoming of a franchise quarterback, which allows the Texans to fill other needs on this roster in the 2023 NFL Draft. As of now, the Texans have 11 picks in next years draft including two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and two third-round picks. The stage is set for Davis Mills to entrench himself as “the dude” in Houston. In his final game in 2021 against the Tennessee Titans, Mills completed 69.7% of his passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns. He also had four games of over 300 yards passing last season while completing 66.8% of his passes. Mills could finish as a QB2 this season and I’m here for it.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 562 Attempts, 64.7% Comp Rate, 3,932 Yards (7.0 YPA), 23 Touchdowns (4.1%)
Rushing: 30 Attempts, 3.5 YPC, 104 Yards, 0 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#31 Dameon Pierce
Age: 22 HT: 5’10 WT: 218 College: Florida Draft: RD4 Pick 107
Contract: 4 years / $1,125,108 per year (75th at position) – Expires 2026
Dameon Pierce could not have landed in a better situation than he did with the Houston Texans. The Texans released Marlon Mack setting the stage for Pierce to be the clear RB1 entering the 2022 season. He played with insane efficiency during his senior season at the University of Florida, where he finished with 100 carries for 574 yards and 13 touchdowns, while also adding 19 receptions for 216 yards and another three scores through the air. That means he scored a touchdown every 7.4 times he touched the rock. The knock on Pierce is that he never had more than 106 carries in a single season during his four years in Florida. There are definitely some concerns about his ability with added volume at the NFL level, but he will get every opportunity to prove himself in 2022. He’s simply the best option in a backfield that has Rex Burkhead, Dare Ogunbowale, and Royce Freeman.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 9% Target Share, 51 Targets, 35 Receptions, 251 yards (7.2 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 52% Rush Share, 220 Attempts, 904 Yards (4.1 YPC), 6 Touchdowns
WR Room
#13 Brandin Cooks
Age: 28 HT: 5’10 WT: 183 College: Oregon State Draft: RD1 Pick 20
Contract: 3 years / $19,882,353 per year (15th at position) – Expires 2025
Brandin Cooks is one of the most disrespected wide receivers in the game both in real football and in the fantasy world. He’s played for four different teams during his eight years in the NFL and has over 100 targets and 65 receptions in six of those eight seasons. He finished with a career-high 134 targets and 90 receptions last season with a rookie quarterback that was drafted in the third round. There is no mistaking who the alpha is in this passing game, and I expect Brandin Cooks to be even better in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 26% Target Share, 146 Targets, 95 Receptions, 1,197 Yards (12.6 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
“The good news is that outside of Brandin Cooks and Dameon Pierce, there are no real threats for targets in this passing game”
#12 Nico Collins
Age: 23 HT: 6’4 WT: 215 College: Michigan Draft: RD3 Pick
Contract: 3 years / $1,217,879 per year (124th at position) – Expires 2025
Nico Collins finished his rookie season with 60 targets, 33 receptions, 446 yards and one touchdown through 14 games. He missed three games due to a shoulder injury against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2. He only had one game with double-digit targets, and he never broke 70 receiving yards in a game all season. The good news is that outside of Brandin Cooks and Dameon Pierce, there are no real threats for targets in this passing game.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 16% Target Share, 90 Targets, 61 Receptions, 740 Yards (12.1 YPR), 5 Touchdowns
TE Room
#9 Brevin Jordan
Age: 22 HT: 6’3 WT: 245 College: Miami Draft: RD5 Pick 147
Contract: 3 years / $958,046 per year (100th at position) – Expires 2025
Brevin Jordan should lead the Texans at the tight end position in 2022, but that isn’t saying much in an offense that only targeted their tight ends 100 times last season. Jordan came on late in his rookie season with four top-12 finishes over the last nine weeks of the season. He finished his senior season at the University of Miami with 63 receptions for 1,111 yards and 13 touchdowns, so he’s accustomed to being an important part of the passing game.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 11% Target Share, 62 Targets, 45 Receptions, 463 Yards (10.3 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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