#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of HEADstrong, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of the Packers’ new #1 WR Allen Lazard
At the HEADstrong Foundation, we offer financial, residential, and emotional support to families affected by cancer. Our founder, Nicholas, recognized the scarcity of essential resources for families during their fight. Our team is based in Philadelphia and works relentlessly to provide resources for patients and their families who are receiving specialized cancer care throughout the country.
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- Division: NFC North
- 2021 Finish: 13-4
- Divisional Record: 4-2
- 2022 Projected Finish: 12-5
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 15th
Green Bay Packers Offense
Play Caller: Matt LaFleur
Common sense would tell you that Matt LaFleur will rely heavily on the run game heading into 2022 with Davante Adams now in Las Vegas. Not to mention, the Packers have one of the best running back tandems in the NFL. LaFleur has always been about the run game, but he’s also given Aaron Rodgers the keys to the offense when it comes to pre-snap calls and checks. The Packers were last in the league in pace of play, taking 31.3 seconds to snap the ball, and only two teams used a “no-huddle” offense less than the Packers. What the Packers do use is a heavy dose of pre-snap motion and RPO action, where they ranked fourth and sixth in the NFL, respectively.
I expect to see the Packers use A.J. Dillon more in a power run scheme, while using Aaron Jones as more of a pass-catcher. Don’t get it twisted, Jones will still be involved as a runner, but I do think the usage will shift going into this season. Jones and Dillon combined for 358 carries for 1,602 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns with an average of 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. They weren’t too shabby in the passing game either as they combined for 86 receptions for 704 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air. The reality is when you have a top-five defense and an offense that can wear you down, you create a situation that allows your two-time MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to uses Play-Action to create big plays.
The passing game is going to look a little different without Davante Adams. The Packers will run with a wide receiver core that consists of Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb to start the season. Watson has been slowed by a knee injury but is expected to be back on the field any day now. Romeo Doubs has shined throughout OTA’s and training camp and is earning the respect and trust of Aaron Rodgers, who historically, does not trust young wide receivers. Lazard will have his chance to be the WR1 early in the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more balance overall in terms of target share.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 450 (10th)
- Total Yards: 6,215 (10th)
- Total Plays: 1,072 (16th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.8 (8th)
- 1st Downs: 375 (7th), Passing 235 (6th), Rushing 109 (18th)
- Scoring Rate: 44.5% (7th)
- Turnover Rate: 6.4% (1st)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 63.1 (16th)
- Pace of Play: 31.3 Seconds Per Play (32nd)
- Passing Ratio: 58% (17th)
- Neutral Game Script: 60% (6th)
- RPO: 206 Snaps – 39.7% Success Rate
- Motion: 579 Plays – 38.7% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 38 Plays – 26.3% Success Rate
- Play Action: 170 Plays – 50.6% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 364 Targets (11th)
RBs: 106 Targets (17th)
TEs: 99 Targets (23rd)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 689 Plays
OVR: 61% (49% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 67% (46% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 33% (43% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 325 Plays
OVR: 29% (55% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 36% (48% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 57% (55% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #69 David Bakhtiari
Age: 30 HT: 6’4 WT: 310 College: Colorado Draft: RD4 Pick 109
OVR PFF: 75/2 Pass: 72.7 Run: 75.4 (27 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $23,000,000 per year (2nd at position) – Expires 2025
LG: #76 Jon Runyan
Age: 25 HT: 6’4 WT: 307 College: Michigan Draft: RD6 Pick 192
OVR PFF: 65.1 Pass: 71.1 Run: 58.6 (1,053 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $867,420 per year (70th at position) – Expires 2024
C: #71 Josh Myers
Age: 24 HT: 6’5 WT: 310 College: Ohio State Draft: RD2 Pick 62
OVR PFF: 58.3 Pass: 65.5 Run: 54.1 (293 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $1,395,036 per year (29th at position) – Expires 2025
RG: #67 Jake Hanson
Age: 25 HT: 6’4 WT: 296 College: Oregon Draft: RD6 Pick 208
OVR PFF: 62.8 Pass: 79.2 Run: 60.0 (6 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $825,000 per year (71st at position) – Expires 2023
RT: #74 Elgton Jenkins
Age: 26 HT: 6’5 WT: 311 College: Miss St Draft: RD2 Pick 44
OVR PFF: 82.1 Pass: 81.2 Run: 76.4 (496 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $1,695,655 per year (45th at position) – Expires 2023
“make no mistake, Rodgers will have no problem putting up numbers when he puts the ball in the air”
QB Room
#12 Aaron Rodgers
Age: 38 HT: 6’2 WT: 225 College: California Draft: RD1 Pick 24
Contract: 5 years / $50,271,667 per year (1st at position) – Expires 2027
Aaron Rodgers has been named the AP Most Valuable Player four times throughout his career including back-to-back seasons in 2020-21. He’s become the most efficient quarterback in NFL history. He’s thrown 449 touchdowns to only 93 interceptions for a career interception rate of only 1.3%. He’s only thrown more than 10 interceptions in a season twice during his 14 years as the full-time starter in Green Bay. He’s also led the league four times in touchdown rate, including the last two seasons, which included a 9.1% touchdown rate in 2020. He’s completed 69.8% of his passes over the last two years while throwing for 8,414 yards and 85 touchdowns with only nine interceptions. The question now is, can he do it without Davante Adams? I’m glad you asked. Rodgers is 10-1 in games without Davante Adams and has 24 touchdowns to only three interceptions while completing 67% of his passes. This offense will be a little different in 2022 as they rely more on the run-game, but make no mistake, Rodgers will have no problem putting up numbers when he puts the ball in the air.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 571 Attempts, 70.1% Comp Rate, 4,372 Yards (7.7 YPA), 32 Touchdowns (5.6%)
Rushing: 31 Attempts, 3.5 YPC, 110 Yards, 2 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#33 Aaron Jones
Age: 27 HT: 5’9 WT: 208 College: UTEP Draft: RD5 Pick 182
Contract: 3 years / $12,000,000 per year (7th at position) – Expires 2025
Aaron Jones is quickly becoming one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL in 2022. With Davante Adams gone, I fully expect the Packers to use Jones more than ever as a receiver. He’s finished the last three seasons with 47 receptions or more and set a career-high last season with 52 grabs. We have seen his rushing volume decrease for the last three years and couple that with the emergence of A.J. Dillon and it creates a great situation for this offense.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 17% Target Share, 97 Targets, 78 Receptions, 575 yards (7.4 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
Rushing: 38% Rush Share, 171 Attempts, 767 Yards (4.5 YPC), 5 Touchdowns
#28 A.J. Dillon
Age: 24 HT: 6’0 WT: 247 College: Boston College Draft: RD2 Pick 62
Contract: 2 years / $1,321,458 per year (52nd at position) – Expires 2024
A.J. Dillon is the thunder to Jones’ lightning. The Packers will use Dillon to chew up clock, wear down defenses, and score the football. In just his second season, Dillon had 221 touches for 1,116 yards and seven touchdowns, while sharing the backfield. He showed his ability in the passing game with 34 receptions and a career 92.3% catch rate. He’s ready to take the next step and will get every opportunity to be the lead back on the ground.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 6% Target Share, 34 Targets, 31 Receptions, 287 Yards (9.3 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 46% Rush Share, 206 Attempts, 970 Yards (4.7 YPC), 10 Touchdowns
WR Room
#13 Allen Lazard
Age: 26 HT: 6’5 WT: 227 College: Iowa State Draft: UDFA
Contract: 1 year / $3,986,000 per year (52nd at position) – Expires 2023
Allen Lazard will have every opportunity to prove he’s the WR1 in this offense and he has a few things going for him. He has the trust of Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur and Davante Adams is now in Las Vegas. In his last two seasons in Green Bay, Davante Adams was targeted 318 times including 56 in the red zone. That bodes well for Lazard who should be the beneficiary of a much larger role in 2022. He finished the 2021 season with a career high 60 targets, 40 receptions, 513 yards, and 8 touchdowns WITH Davanate Adams on the field. At his ceiling, he can net you over 100 targets and double-digit touchdowns.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 19% Target Share, 109 Targets, 75 Receptions, 936 Yards (12.5 YPR), 8 Touchdowns
“The Packers hope they struck gold with Watson and he will get every opportunity to prove his worth”
#9 Christian Watson
Age: 23 HT: 6’5 WT: 208 College: N Dakota St Draft: RD2 Pick 34
Contract: 4 years / $2,310,257 per year (81st at position) – Expires 2026
Christian Watson has the size (6’5) and speed (4.36) to make a splash in the NFL. It doesn’t hurt that he will be catching passes from one of the most efficient and accurate passers in NFL history. Watson is going to have to get caught up to speed quickly in this offense to earn the trust of Aaron Rodgers early in the season. He suffered a minor knee injury towards the end of OTA’s but should be back on the field soon. The Packers hope they struck gold with Watson and he will get every opportunity to prove his worth.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 14% Target Share, 80 Targets, 52 Receptions, 769 Yards (14.8 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
#18 Randall Cobb
Age: 31 HT: 5’10 WT: 195 College: Kentucky Draft: RD2 Pick 64
Contract: 1 year / $3,000,000 per year (68th at position) – Expires 2023
Randall Cobb is a savvy veteran that brings leadership both on and off the field for this unit. He returned to Green Bay last season after spending the previous two years split between the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans. In 12 games, he totaled just 28 receptions for 375 yards, but he did find the end zone five times, which is his highest output since 2015. He will continue to be a security blanket in this offense and should see more action if he can hold off training camp standout Romeo Doubs.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 11% Target Share, 63 Targets, 45 Receptions, 466 Yards (10.4 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
TE Room
#85 Robert Tonyan
Age: 28 HT: 6’5 WT: 240 College: Indiana State Draft: UDFA
Contract: 1 year / $3,750,000 per year (28th at position) – Expires 2023
Robert Tonyan will miss the beginning of the season due to an ACL injury suffered in week 8 against the Arizona Cardinals last season. When Tonyan is healthy, he brings touchdown upside, but don’t expect him to return to the value we saw in 2020 when he scored 11 times. I’m not expecting the tight end position to be prioritized in this offense as I believe the passing game runs through Lazard and Aaron Jones. The Packers only targeted the tight end 99 times in 2021, which was 23rd in the NFL.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 69 Targets, 51 Receptions, 591 Yards (11.6 YPR), 5 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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