#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of Faith, Fight, Finish, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of Dak Prescott
The Faith Fight Finish Foundation by Dak Prescott invests in a better future by empowering individuals, families and communities to find strength through adversity. The foundation focuses on three main initiatives: cancer research, mental health & suicide prevention, and bridging the gap between law enforcement and the communities they serve.
#Project32 Menu
- Division: NFC East
- 2021 Finish: 12-5
- Divisional Record: 6-0
- 2022 Projected Finish: 10-7
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 10th
Dallas Cowboys Offense
Play Caller: Kellen Moore
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2021 season ranked second in No Huddle Success Rate (51.3%), ninth in pre-snap Motion Success Rate (38.2%), and sixth in Play-action Success Rate (48.6%) per Pro Football Focus. Ironically, they ranked outside the top seven in usage in all three categories, but they do them all exceptionally well. The point is that they don’t tip their hand schematically by specializing in one or two things. They come at you with everything. I expect to see more Pollard and Zeke on the field together with Pollard occasionally lined up in the slot. This allows Michael Gallup to get back to 100% after tearing his ACL late in the season. Reports indicate that Gallup could miss the first month of the season. This allows Dak to build some rapport with Jalen Tolbert, who will be asked to step up in a big way at the start of this season in what has become a depleted wide receiver room.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 530 (1st)
- Total Yards: 6,919 (1st)
- Total Plays: 1,153 (3rd)
- Yards Per Play: 6.0 (3rd)
- 1st Downs: 390 (6th), Passing 248 (4th), Rushing 111 (17th)
- Scoring Rate: 43.8% (9th)
- Turnover Rate: 9.9% (11th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 67.9 (2nd)
- Pace of Play: 27.0 Seconds Per Play (2nd)
- Passing Ratio: 59% (11th)
- Neutral Game Script: 60% (6th)
- RPO: 110 Snaps
- Motion: 440 Plays
- No Huddle: 152 Plays
- Play Action: 183 Plays
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 388 Targets (6th)
RBs: 118 Targets (9th)
TEs: 130 Targets (9th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 811 Plays
OVR: 67% (49% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 70% (49% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 30% (49% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 290 Plays
OVR: 24% (56% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 37% (59% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 63% (53% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #77 Tyron Smith
Age: 31 HT: 6’5 WT: 308 College: USC Draft: RD1 Pick 9
OVR PFF: 90.2 Pass: 87.0 Run: 90.0 (738 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $12,200,000 per year (19th at position) – Expires 2024
LG: #73 Tyler Smith
Age: 21 HT: 6’5 WT: 324 College: Tulsa Draft: RD1 Pick 24
OVR PFF: 92.1 Pass: NA Run: 93.9
Contract: 4 years / $3,347,279 per year (18th at position) – Expires 2026 – 5th year option available
C: #63 Tyler Biadasz
Age: 24 HT: 6’4 WT: 315 College: Wisconsin Draft: RD4 Pick 146
OVR PFF: 65.1 Pass: 69.3 Run 68.7 (1,202 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $947,350 per year (48th at position) – Expires 2024
RG: #70 Zack Martin
Age: 31 HT: 6’4 WT: 315 College: Notre Dame Draft: RD1 Pick 16
OVR PFF: 93.4 Pass: 87.6 Run 92.5 (1,101 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $14,000,000 per year (3rd at position) – Expires 2025
RT: #78 Terence Steele
Age: 25 HT: 6’6 WT: 318 College: Texas Tech Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 64.6 Pass: 60.9 Run: 67.8 (910 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $765,000 per year (107th at position) – Expires 2023
“Dak Prescott will have this offense ready to roll when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1”
QB Room
#4 Dak Prescott
Age: 28 HT: 6’2 WT: 238 College: Mississippi State Draft: RD4 Pick 135
Contract: 3 years / $40,000,000 per year (7th at position) – Expires 2025
Dak enters his 7th season in the NFL, with the Dallas Cowboys coming off his best season in 2021. He completed nearly 69% of his passes for 4,449 yards and 37 touchdowns while leading the Cowboys to an NFC East division title for the third time in 6 years. He finished 2021 ranked inside the top 10 in several key metrics, including Play-Action Completion Rate (70%), Red Zone Completion Rate (63.7%), Deep Ball Accuracy Rating (6.5), Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (7.6), and Fantasy Points Per Game (20.9).
Dak lost his WR1 in Amari Cooper, who was traded to the Cleveland Browns and could be without Michael Gallup for the start of the season as he returns from an ACL injury. Not to mention, Dalton Schultz, who emerged as a top TE in the NFL last season, is not happy with his franchise tag but will be in a Cowboys uniform for 2022. To offset the loss of Amari Cooper, the Cowboys have added Jalen Tolbert (NFL Draft) and James Washington (Free Agency) to the WR Room. Unfortunately, James Washington suffered a broken foot during the first week of training camp. It appears he will miss 6-10 weeks. Dak also has one of the best backfields in the NFL at his disposal in Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard. Both are heavily involved in the passing game, as Dak targeted his running backs 118 times in 2021. Dak Prescott will have this offense ready to roll when they face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 631 Attempts, 66.7% Comp Rate, 4,559 Yards (7.2 YPA), 36 Touchdowns (5.7%)
Rushing: 58 Attempts, 4.8 YPC, 280 Yards, 3 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#21 Ezekiel Elliott
Age: 27 HT: 6’0 WT: 228 College: Ohio State Draft: RD1 Pick 4
Contract: 5 years / $15,000,000 per year (2nd at position) – Expires 2027
Zeke enters his 7th season in the NFL at 27, which many consider the age apex for running backs regarding production and efficiency. It’s worth noting that Zeke did play through a partial tear of his PCL during the 2021 season. To put things into perspective, Zeke has amassed 2,555 touches between his last two seasons at Ohio State and his six seasons in the NFL. His rushing yards per game have decreased every season he’s been in the league, and we have seen his number of carries fall for four consecutive seasons. He hasn’t looked like the dominant runner we saw from 2016-2019, when he led the NFL in rushing twice. There are a few reasons that Zeke continues to be the RB1 in Dallas. His contract, ability in the passing game as a receiver and in pass protection, and ability to move the chains and find the endzone. In 2021, he had 64 carries inside the 20-yard line so another season of 10+ touchdowns is a real possibility if he can stay healthy.
With Zeke, it’s a story of volume vs. efficiency. From a volume perspective, he finished in the top 10 in several key metrics, including carries (237), Targets (65), Routes Run (332), Red Zone Touches (50), Rushing Yards (1,002), Receptions (47), and Total Touchdowns (12). On the flip side, in efficiency metrics he ranked 39th in True Yards Per Carry (4.1), 35th in Yards Per Touch (4.5), 25th in Juke Rate (26.1%), 45th in Breakaway Run Rate (2.5%), and 37th in Yards Created/Touch (2.28). The question is, are you buying if he’s not getting the volume? I believe that Dallas will give Zeke every opportunity to earn his pay in 2022 because he’s earned that as a leader of this football team, but with Tony Pollard waiting in the wings, he can’t afford a slow start.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 10% Target Share, 62 Targets, 47 Receptions, 296 yards (6.3 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 50% Rush Share, 243 Attempts, 1,045 Yards (4.3 YPC), 9 Touchdowns
#20 Tony Pollard
Age: 25 HT: 6’0 WT: 209 College: Memphis Draft: RD4 Pick 128
Contract: 1 year / $797,582 per year (178th at position) – Expires 2023
Tony Pollard enters his 4th season in the NFL with high expectations in this explosive offense. You are starting to hear more and more chatter from Cowboy fans and NFL media about who the true RB1 is in Dallas. In 2021, he touched the ball 169 times for 1,056 yards and two touchdowns with an average of 6.2 Yards Per Touch. He ran the ball 130 times for 719 yards at a clip of 5.5 yards per carry. The offense looks more explosive when TP enters the game. We have heard that Dallas will be using both Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott in 21 personnel packages more often, with Pollard lined up at multiple positions. This makes a lot of sense to me based on the current roster structure.
With TP, it’s always been about efficiency over volume because he has never seen RB1 volume if Zeke is suited up. The question becomes more about if he got the opportunity to see RB1 volume over several games, could he still be as efficient, and could he handle the volume over time? He finished the 2021 season ranked first in Yards Per Route Run (2.50), third in Catch Rate (84.8%), 5th in True Yards Per Carry (5.1), 3rd in Breakaway Run Rate (8.5%), 6th in Yards Created/Touch (3.49), 5th in Juke Rate (34.9%), and 2nd in Expected Points Added (+25.7). He doesn’t see volume when the Cowboys are inside the 10-yard line. Pollard only had five total carries inside 10, including just two carries inside the 5-yard line. The reality is, as a Cowboys fan, you have to love how Zeke and TP genuinely complement one another, and it’s an excellent problem for Kellen Moore.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 9% Target Share, 56 Targets, 43 Receptions, 313 Yards (7.3 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 33% Rush Share, 160 Attempts, 802 Yards (5.0 YPC), 5 Touchdowns
WR Room
#88 CeeDee Lamb
Age: 23 HT: 6’2 WT: 189 College: Oklahoma Draft: RD 1 Pick 17
Contract: 2 years / $3,502,504 per year (57th at position) – Expires 2024 – 5th year option available
CeeDee Lamb will get every opportunity to prove he’s an elite wide receiver in the NFL this season. With Amari Cooper (Cleveland) and Cedrick Wilson (Miami) no longer on the roster and Michael Gallup recovering from an ACL injury, expectations are very high for Mr. Lamb. That leaves 104 vacated targets in this high-powered offense, and you can expect CeeDee to be the biggest beneficiary of those targets. In his first two seasons in the NFL, he has totaled 231 targets, 153 receptions, 2,037 yards, and 11 touchdowns.
Dallas will use Lamb all over the field in 2022, both as a move pre-snap player to create free releases and as an isolation player to create mismatches. He finished 2nd in broken tackles behind the explosive Deebo Samuel but only garnered 10 Red Zone targets, so look for the latter to improve in 2022. He was also in the top 12 in receptions over 20 yards (20), receptions over 30 yards (9), Juke Rate (21.5%), and Yards Per Route Run (2.27). With an increase in targets coming, it would not surprise me to see him finish with 12 or more touchdowns in 2022 and a top 5 finish in FPPG.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 23% Target Share, 142 Targets, 100 Receptions, 1,325 Yards (13.3 YPR), 12 Touchdowns
“If Dallas is going to repeat as NFC East Champions and make a playoff run, they will need Gallup’s big-play ability”
#13 Michael Gallup
Age: 26 HT: 6’1 WT: 198 College: Colorado State Draft: RD3 Pick 81
Contract: 5 years / $11,500,000 per year (28th at position) – Expires 2027
Michael Gallup’s 2021 season ended on a touchdown reception against the Arizona Cardinals due to a torn ACL. There were concerns that it may have been his last play as a Dallas Cowboy as he would be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. But the Cowboys’ front office had other plans. By dealing Amari Cooper to Cleveland, the Cowboys were able to sign Gallup to a 5-year, $57.5M contract. He could return as early as September, which would be great news for this offense as he looks to take advantage of what should be his most prominent role yet in Kellen Moore’s system. If Dallas is going to repeat as NFC East Champions and make a playoff run, they will need Gallup’s big-play ability.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 74 Targets, 45 Receptions, 606 Yards (13.5 YPR), 6 Touchdowns
#18 Jalen Tolbert
Age: 23 HT: 6’1 WT: 194 College: South Alabama Draft: RD3 Pick 88
Contract: 4 years / $1,283,930 per year (111th at position) – Expires 2026
There’s something about the number 88 in Dallas. Drew Pearson, Michael Irvin, Dez Bryant, and now CeeDee Lamb have all worn that number as wide receivers for the Dallas Cowboys. It’s a rite of passage to don the #88 in Big D. Why do I bring this up when talking about Jalen Tolbert? Well, he was the 88th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. So naturally, my expectations are high. In his four seasons (excluding his RS year in 2017) at South Alabama, he increased his reception and receiving totals every year and finished his career with 178 receptions for 3,140 yards and 22 touchdowns. Tolbert will be thrust into the starting lineup whether he’s ready or not with Michael Gallup and James Washington both missing the first few weeks of the season.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 14% Target Share, 87 Targets, 59 Receptions, 713 Yards (12.1 YPR), 5 Touchdowns
TE Room
#86 Dalton Schultz
Age: 26 HT: 6’5 WT: 244 College: Stanford Draft: RD4 Pick 137
Contract: 1 year / $10,931,000 per year (8th at position) Franchise Tag – Expires 2023
Dalton Schultz spent his first two seasons in the NFL playing behind Blake Jarwin, Geoff Swaim, and future Hall of Famer Jason Witten. In those two seasons (2018-19), he totaled just 19 targets for 13 receptions, 122 yards, and never once sniffed the end zone. Fast forward to 2020, when Jarwin went down with an early season injury, and Dalton Schultz became the starting tight end for the Dallas Cowboys. All he did over the next 14 games was snag 63 receptions for 615 yards and four touchdowns. In 2021, he was targeted 104 times and turned that into 78 receptions for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. He has become the security blanket for Dak Prescott in this offense.
Schultz finished the 2021 season 3rd in receptions (78), 6th in yards (808), 5th in yards before contact (460), 5th in air yards (460), and 10th in Red Zone targets (14) at the tight end position. However, he does lack ability as a runner after the catch and only had eight receptions over 20 yards last season. His role is clear. Find bubbles of space underneath against zone and win your matchups in man coverage on TE option routes. He’s built-up trust in this offense with both Kellen Moore and Dak Prescott that he is often the beneficiary when things break down. Teams will continue to try to take away explosive plays focusing their coverages on Lamb, Gallup, and Tolbert, which will allow Schultz room to work.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 17% Target Share, 105 Targets, 77 Receptions, 783 Yards (10.2 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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