#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
In support of the Greater Cleveland Food Bank, the 2021 ‘My Cause My Cleats’ pick of Tight End David Njoku
The Greater Cleveland Food Bank is the largest hunger relief organization in Northeast Ohio having served more than 345,000 people in Cuyahoga, Ashtabula, Geauga, Lake, Ashland, and Richland counties in FY2021.
#Project32 Menu
- Division: AFC North
- 2021 Finish: 8-9
- Divisional Record: 3-3
- 2022 Projected Finish: 8-9
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 8th
Cleveland Browns Offense
Play Caller: Kevin Stefanski
Like it or not, the Cleveland Browns have moved on from Baker Mayfield, who was the number one overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. They traded Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers for a conditional fifth-round pick shortly after landing Deshaun Watson in a blockbuster trade with the Houston Texans. The Browns made this trade knowing that Watson could be suspended for breaking the NFL’s personal conduct policy. That suspension will be for 11 games to start the 2022 NFL season. This means that Head Coach and play-caller, Kevin Stefanski, will turn to veteran quarterback, Jacoby Brissett to run the offense until Watson can return to action. Guess who the Browns play in Week 13 when Watson is eligible to play again? Yep, his former team, the Houston Texans. How ironic.
The offense will lean heavily on the run game with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt behind one of the best, if not the best, offensive lines in the NFL. The Browns ranked fourth in rushing yards and fifth in rushing first downs in 2021, which explains why they were second and fifth in RPO and Play-Action success rates with 42.9% and 50.3%, respectively. The expectation is that the Browns will look to control the line of scrimmage, take time off the clock, and wear down opposing defenses with a physical brand of football.
As for the passing game, the Browns traded a bag of skittles to the Dallas Cowboys for wide receiver Amari Cooper, who will fill the WR1 role in this offense. The Browns also added third-round draft pick David Bell out of Purdue and Donovan Peoples-Jones returns for his third season after showing steady improvement during his first two years in the NFL. David Njoku and Harrison Bryant will both be involved in an offense that targeted the tight ends 142 times in 2021, which was sixth in the NFL.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 349 (20th)
- Total Yards: 5,791 (18th)
- Total Plays: 1,054 (20th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.5 (17th)
- 1st Downs: 342 (17th), Passing 177 (25th), Rushing 138 (5th)
- Scoring Rate: 32.2% (25th)
- Turnover Rate: 12.4% (19th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 62 (20th)
- Pace of Play: 30.3 Seconds Per Play (28th)
- Passing Ratio: 54% (26th)
- Neutral Game Script: 53% (23rd)
- RPO: 21 Snaps – 42.9% Success Rate
- Motion: 536 Plays – 34.7% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 81 Plays – 40.7% Success Rate
- Play Action: 151 Plays – 50.3% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 253 Targets (29th)
RBs: 104 Targets (11th)
TEs: 142 Targets (4th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 482 Plays
OVR: 45% (46% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 64% (42% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 36% (53% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 233 Plays
OVR: 22% (49% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 53% (52% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 47% (47% Success Rate)
13 Personnel: 187 Plays
OVR: 17% (51% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 36% (52% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 64% (50% Success Rate)
21 Personnel: 114 Plays
OVR: 11% (49% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 55% (46% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 45% (53% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #71 Jedrick Wills Jr.
Age: 23 HT: 6’4 WT: 307 College: Alabama Draft: RD1 Pick 10
OVR PFF: 66.1 Pass: 67.9 Run: 61.7 (763 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $4,925,729 per year (25th at position) – Expires 2024 – 5th year option available
LG: #75 Joel Bitonio
Age: 30 HT: 6’4 WT: 320 College: Nevada Draft: RD2 Pick 35
OVR PFF: 93.6 Pass: 85.9 Run: 92.5 (1,107 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $16,000,000 per year (1st at position) – Expires 2026
C: #55 Ethan Pocic
Age: 27 HT: 6’6 WT: 309 College: LSU Draft: RD2 Pick 58
OVR PFF: 67.3 Pass: 43.8 Run: 76.0 (600 Snaps)
Contract: 1 year / $1,187,500 per year (36th at position) – Expires 2023
RG: #77 Wyatt Teller
Age: 27 HT: 6’4 WT: 314 College: Virginia Tech Draft: RD5 Pick 166
OVR PFF: 84.9 Pass: 70.4 Run: 88.4 (1,107 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $14,200,000 per year (2nd at position) – Expires 2026
RT: #78 Jack Conklin
Age: 28 HT: 6’6 WT: 308 College: Michigan State Draft: RD1 Pick 8
OVR PFF: 78.8 Pass: 63.8 Run: 86.0
Contract: 1 year / $8,000,000 per year (9th at position) – Expires 2023
“The assignment is simple. Do just enough to keep the Browns playoff hopes alive until Deshaun Watson takes over in Week 13 against his former team”
QB Room
#7 Jacoby Brissett
Age: 29 HT: 6’4 WT: 235 College: NC State Draft: RD3 Pick 91
Contract: 1 year / $4,650,000 per year (33rd at position) – Expires 2023
Jacoby Brissett didn’t ask for this. He’s handled the Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson situations like an absolute professional. Unfortunately, being a good person, doesn’t win you football games. Brissett has only thrown 36 touchdowns in 37 career starts while completing just 60% of his passes. The assignment is simple. Do just enough to keep the Browns playoff hopes alive until Deshaun Watson takes over in Week 13 against his former team. The Browns have a good enough roster to make this possible if Brissett can protect the football and make plays when called upon in the passing game.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 325 Attempts, 65.9% Comp Rate, 2,209 Yards (6.8 YPA), 14 Touchdowns (4.3%)
Rushing: 26 Attempts, 3.8 YPC, 99 Yards, 1 Touchdown
#4 Deshaun Watson
Age: 26 HT: 6’2 WT: 215 College: Clemson Draft: RD1 Pick 12
Contract: 5 years / $46,000,000 per year (3rd at position) – Expires 2027
Deshaun Watson was brought to Cleveland for one reason. To win football games. Lots of them. In 2020, he completed 70% of his passes for 4,823 yards, and 33 touchdowns, while throwing only seven interceptions. He led the league in yards passing, yards per attempt, and yards per completion, and was selected to his third consecutive Pro Bowl. During his four years with the Houston Texans, he ran for over 1,600 yards and 17 touchdowns with an average of 5.5 yards per carry. If he can stay focused and keep the off-the-field issues in the past, he has overall QB1 within his range of outcomes.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 185 Attempts, 65.4% Comp Rate, 1,586 Yards (8.6 YPA), 10 Touchdowns (5.4%)
Rushing: 36 Attempts, 5.4 YPC, 196 Yards, 3 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#24 Nick Chubb
Age: 26 HT: 5’11 WT: 227 College: Georgia Draft: RD2 Pick 35
Contract: 3 years / $12,200,000 per year (6th at position) – Expires 2025
Nick Chubb passes every eye test at the running back position as a pure runner. Chubb and Jonathan Taylor are in a tier of their own as elite runners. In 48 career games, he’s tallied 908 carries for 4,816 yards, and 36 touchdowns with a career 5.3 yards per carry. He’s also contributed 92 receptions for 751 yards with a career 8.2 yards per reception. He finished the 2021 season ranked fourth in yards created (904), fifth in yards created per touch (3.65), third in evaded tackles (92), third in juke rate (37.1%), and third in breakaway runs (17). If he ever gets freed from the time share with Kareem Hunt and sees 300-plus carries in a season, he’s a threat to win the rushing title every year. Unfortunately, outside of the 2019 season, he’s never had more than 228 carries in a season. He’s also not used in the passing game like other top running backs in the NFL. He’s only had one season with more than 30 targets and 20 receptions which was 2019, when he finished with 49 and 36, respectively.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 6% Target Share, 31 Targets, 24 Receptions, 198 yards (8.3 YPR), 1 Touchdown
Rushing: 48% Rush Share, 245 Attempts, 1,297 Yards (5.3 YPC), 10 Touchdowns
#27 Kareem Hunt
Age: 27 HT: 5’11 WT: 216 College: Toledo Draft: RD3 Pick 86
Contract: 1 year / $6,000,000 per year (15th at position) – Expires 2023
Kareem Hunt is one of only a few handcuffs in the NFL that has true RB1 upside if the lead back misses games. He also provides weekly stand-alone value due to his ability as a runner and pass-catcher in this offense WITH Chubb in the lineup. During his rookie season with the Kansas City Chiefs, he led the NFL in rushing with 1,327 yards. It’s the only season he’s seen more than 200 carries in a season. The issue for Hunt has been his inability to stay healthy for a full season. He’s missed 22 games during his five seasons in the NFL including nine games last season.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 9% Target Share, 46 Targets, 37 Receptions, 286 yards (7.7 YPR), 2 Touchdowns
Rushing: 28% Rush Share, 143 Attempts, 714 Yards (5.0 YPC), 6 Touchdowns
WR Room
#2 Amari Cooper
Age: 28 HT: 6’1 WT: 210 College: Alabama Draft: RD1 Pick 4
Contract: 3 years / $20,000,000 per year (12th at position) – Expires 2025
Amari Cooper arrives in Cleveland and instantly becomes the WR1 in this offense. The tide was turning in Dallas with the emergence of CeeDee Lamb so I’m sure Cooper doesn’t mind a change of scenery. Cooper provides a veteran presence in a very young wide receiver room. He’s played seven seasons in the NFL and has only finished with less than 100 targets once. That was in 2017 when he missed two games, but still finished with 96. He’s an above average route runner in the short to intermediate areas of the field, but he’s never been that alpha that can dominate in the red zone.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 22% Target Share, 112 Targets, 76 Receptions, 954 Yards (12.6 YPR), 7 Touchdowns
“I expect to see him take another step forward this season”
#11 Donovan Peoples-Jones
Age: 23 HT: 6’2 WT: 204 College: Michigan Draft: RD6 Pick 187
Contract: 2 years / $870,402 per year (238th at position) – Expires 2024
Donovan Peoples-Jones will compete with rookie David Bell for the WR2 spot in this offense. He started just two games in his rookie season (2020) and finished with just 14 receptions for 304 yards and two touchdowns. He followed that up by putting up 34 receptions for 597 yards and three touchdowns last season. He has a career average of 18.8 yards per reception and will continue to be the deep threat option in this offense. I expect to see him take another step forward this season.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 15% Target Share, 77 Targets, 47 Receptions, 740 Yards (15.7 YPR), 5 Touchdowns
#18 David Bell
Age: 21 HT: 6’1 WT: 212 College: Purdue Draft: RD3 Pick 99
Contract: 4 years / $1,261,226 per year (116th at position) – Expires 2026
David Bell had an outstanding college career for the Purdue Boilermakers. Over his three seasons, he compiled a total of 232 receptions for 2,946 yards and 21 touchdowns before declaring for the 2022 NFL Draft. However, he did not test well at the NFL Combine and was projected as a Day 3 prospect. The Browns didn’t see it that way and trusted the film and production over the lack of athletic score at the combine. He’s not great on intermediate to vertical routes but should excel working underneath coverage and after the catch.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 13% Target Share, 66 Targets, 41 Receptions, 469 Yards (11.4 YPR), 3 Touchdowns
TE Room
#85 David Njoku
Age: 26 HT: 6’4 WT: 246 College: Miami Draft: RD1 Pick 29
Contract: 4 years / $13,687,500 per year (5th at position) – Expires 2026
David Njoku was a first-round pick out of the University of Miami and arrived in the NFL with an elite wingspan and an outstanding athletic profile. He scored in the 80th percentile or above in every workout metric. He had a breakout season in 2018 finishing with 56 receptions for 639 yards and four touchdowns but after missing 12 games in 2019, Njoku has struggled to find that same level of production over the last three seasons. There is a clear path as the TE1 in this offense now that Austin Hooper is no longer in the mix. The Browns used multiple tight end sets on more than 480 plays so Harrison Bryant will also be in the mix.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 15% Target Share, 77 Targets, 50 Receptions, 565 Yards (11.3 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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