#Project32 provides in-depth breakdowns, projections, and rankings of all 32 teams coupled with promotion of some charitable organizations (a ‘My Clause My Cleats’ charity from some of your favorite fantasy players on each team)
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- Division: AFC North
- 2021 Finish: 10-7
- Divisional Record: 4-2
- 2022 Projected Finish: 10-7
- 2022 Strength of Schedule: 26th
Cincinnati Bengals Offense
Play Caller: Zac Taylor
Zac Taylor started to put together some impressive offensive performances down the stretch and into the postseason. It all starts with the run game, which uses multiple concepts, but the wide zone is the glue that holds it all together. In simple terms, the wide zone attacks the outside leverage of the last defensive on the line of scrimmage. If he contains the outside edge, the back cuts up the field, but if he crashes inside, the back will cut outside. The wide zone essentially stretches the defense horizontally, allowing the back to stick his foot in the ground and get to daylight. The back can effectively attack any bubble of space in this scheme, and it can be run against any front out of multiple personnel groupings and formations.
As for the passing game, the Bengals have the best wide receiver room in the NFL and a quarterback with arm talent to make it all work. When the passing game clicks on all cylinders, it looks like the Bengals are playing basketball on grass. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd combined for 222 receptions, 3,374 yards, and 24 touchdowns last season. Chase was a rookie, Higgins was only in his second season, and Burrow was coming off Grade 3 tears of his ACL and MCL suffered during the 2020 season. It took some time to get things rolling, but this offense could be special in 2022.
2021 By the Numbers
- Points Scored: 460 (7th)
- Total Yards: 6,145 (13th)
- Total Plays: 1,046 (26th)
- Yards Per Play: 5.9 (7th)
- 1st Downs: 337 (18th), Passing 208 (11th), Rushing 96 (24th)
- Scoring Rate: 42.6% (12th)
- Turnover Rate: 10% (12th)
- Offensive Plays/Game: 61.5 (26th)
- Pace of Play: 30.4 Seconds Per Play (29th)
- Passing Ratio: 59% (11th)
- Neutral Game Script: 60% (6th)
- RPO: 44 Snaps – 36.4% Success Rate
- Motion: 435 Plays – 35.6% Success Rate
- No Huddle: 51 Plays – 33.3% Success Rate
- Play Action: 129 Plays – 39.5% Success Rate
2021 Target Distribution
WRs: 359 Targets (13th)
RBs: 98 Targets (24th)
TEs: 83 Targets (30th)
2021 Personnel Groupings
11 Personnel: 990 Plays
OVR: 77% (49% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 67% (47% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 33% (52% Success Rate)
12 Personnel: 233 Plays
OVR: 18% (43% Success Rate)
Pass Rate: 29% (42% Success Rate)
Run Rate: 71% (43% Success Rate)
Offensive Line Projected Starters
LT: #73 Jonah Williams
Age: 24 HT: 6’4 WT: 312 College: Alabama Draft: RD1 Pick 11
OVR PFF: 77.1 Pass: 68.8 Run: 79.8 (1,044 Snaps)
Contract: 2 years / $4,407,542 per year (27th at position) – Expires 2024
LG: #79 Jackson Carman
Age: 22 HT: 6’5 WT: 330 College: Clemson Draft: RD2 Pick 46
OVR PFF: 56.3 Pass: 53.0 Run: 62.4 (462 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $1,862,490 per year (23rd at position) – Expires 2025
C: #64 Ted Karras
Age: 29 HT: 6’4 WT: 310 College: Illinois Draft: RD6 Pick 221
OVR PFF: 72.2 Pass: 76.9 Run: 67.1 (829 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $6,000,000 per year (13th at position) – Expires 2025
RG: #65 Alex Cappa
Age: 27 HT: 6’6 WT: 310 College: Humboldt St Draft: RD3 Pick 94
OVR PFF: 73.4 Pass: 69.6 Run: 71.2 (1,182 Snaps)
Contract: 4 years / $8,750,000 per year (7th at position) – Expires 2026
RT: #71 La’el Collins
Age: 29 HT: 6’4 WT: 314 College: LSU Draft: UDFA
OVR PFF: 82.0 Pass: 76.2 Run: 89.8 (671 Snaps)
Contract: 3 years / $7,000,000 per year (10th at position) – Expires 2025
“Joe Burrow’s ceiling in 2022 is to finish as the overall QB1”
QB Room
#9 Joe Burrow
Age: 25 HT: 6’4 WT: 215 College: LSU Draft: RD1 Pick 1
Contract: 2 years / $9,047,534 per year (21st at position) – Expires 2024 – 5th year option available
Joe Burrow lit up the NFL less than one year after tearing his ACL and MCL in November of the 2020 season. In 2021, he completed 70.4% of his passes for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns and reminded us of the quarterback that lit up the college scene when he led the LSU Tigers to a National Championship. He led the NFL in completion rate, yards per attempt (8.9), and adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.0). On the flip side, he was also sacked 51 times for 370 yards, leading the NFL. With that said, the Bengals brought in veterans Alex Cappa, La’el Collins, and Ted Karras to provide more stability on the offensive line. Joe Burrow’s ceiling in 2022 is to finish as the overall QB1, and he gives a very safe floor if he can avoid injury. This offense has too much firepower to expect anything less.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Passing: 581 Attempts, 68.6% Comp Rate, 4,936 Yards (8.5 YPA), 37 Touchdowns (6.4%)
Rushing: 39 Attempts, 3.4 YPC, 134 Yards, 2 Touchdowns
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
RB Room
#28 Joe Mixon
Age: 26 HT: 6’1 WT: 220 College: Oklahoma Draft: RD2 Pick 48
Contract: 3 years / $12,000,000 per year (7th at position) – Expires 2025
Joe Mixon was the engine that made it all work for this offense in 2021. Zac Taylor wanted to establish the run, and Mixon delivered with 292 carries for 1,205 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground. He’s the perfect fit for what offensive line coach, Frank Pollack, wants to do with the ground game. In addition to his work in the run game, Mixon also hauled in 42 receptions for 314 yards and another three scores, giving him 16 touchdowns last season. He finished seventh in evaded tackles (76), seventh in breakaway runs (13), eighth in yards created (770), and seventh in routes run (282). It will be tough to duplicate the touchdown production in 2022, but I would not be surprised if he puts up career highs in touches and total yards.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 10% Target Share, 58 Targets, 49 Receptions, 371 yards (7.6 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
Rushing: 62% Rush Share, 272 Attempts, 1,142 Yards (4.2 YPC), 11 Touchdowns
WR Room
#1 Ja’Marr Chase
Age: 22 HT: 6’0 WT: 201 College: LSU Draft: RD1 Pick 5
Contract: 3 years / $7,704,911 per year (39th at position) – Expires 2025 – 5th year option available
I think it’s safe to say the training camp reports from last season that stated Ja’Marr Chase was struggling to catch an NFL football were nothing but camp chatter. He finished his rookie season with 128 targets, 81 receptions, 1,455 yards, and 13 touchdowns with an average of 18 yards per reception. His athletic profile and college production were elite, showing Chase was worthy of a top-five selection in the 2021 NFL Draft. He has top-end speed (4.39), a complete toolbox of release moves, and the ability to work a full route tree. Chase has the talent, the offense, and the quarterback to be the best wide receiver in the NFL for many years.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 24% Target Share, 140 Targets, 91 Receptions, 1,533 Yards (16.8 YPR), 13 Touchdowns
“There would be no argument for him outside the top twelve if he didn’t have to share targets with Ja’Marr Chase”
#85 Tee Higgins
Age: 23 HT: 6’4 WT: 219 College: Clemson Draft: RD2 Pick 33
Contract: 2 years / $2,171,697 per year (85th at position) – Expires 2024
Tee Higgins is underrated. There would be no argument for him outside the top twelve if he didn’t have to share targets with Chase. In his two seasons in the NFL, he’s tallied 141 receptions for 1,999 yards and 12 touchdowns. According to Fantasy Pros, Higgins had a higher target rate per route run than Chase last season and a higher target share in games they played together. Higgins is more than just a possession receiver in this offense. He plays the flanker position, which means he is often off the line of scrimmage and faces less press coverage than Chase. This translates to more free releases, simple pitch, and catch plays for Higgins. He missed three games in 2021, but still finished with more than 1,000 yards receiving, giving you a snapshot into the potential for year three in this offense.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 20% Target Share, 116 Targets, 78 Receptions, 1,176 Yards (15.1 YPR), 9 Touchdowns
#83 Tyler Boyd
Age: 28 HT: 6’2 WT: 203 College: Pitt Draft: RD2 Pick 55
Contract: 2 years / $10,750,000 per year (32nd at position) – Expires 2024
Tyler Boyd is the best WR3 on any team in the NFL regarding the passing game. He had three consecutive seasons with more than 100 targets before Chase arrived. In the season before Higgins arrived, he finished with 148 targets and a career-high 90 receptions. It makes sense that his numbers declined slightly in 2021 with both Higgins and Chase on the field. However, he still garnered 94 targets, 57 receptions, 828 yards, and five touchdowns in 16 games. There is no reason we shouldn’t expect similar production in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 16% Target Share, 93 Targets, 65 Receptions, 781 Yards (12.0 YPR), 4 Touchdowns
TE Room
#88 Hayden Hurst
Age: 28 HT: 6’4 WT: 250 College: South Carolina Draft: RD1 Pick 25
Contract: 1 year / $3,500,000 per year (29th at position) – Expires 2023
Hayden Hurst struggled to get going last season with the arrival of Kyle Pitts in Atlanta. He went from a career-high 56 receptions in 2020 to a measly 26 last season. He arrives in Cincinnati as the clear TE1 in this offense and will have room to work with so much attention being paid to Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Mixon. If I’m an opposing defensive coordinator, Hurst is the last player I’m worried about shutting down. I will give up targets to Hurst before anybody else in this offense, which could lead to some splash weeks for Hurst.
2022 Fantasy Outlook:
Receiving: 12% Target Share, 70 Targets, 49 Receptions, 513 Yards (10.5 YPR), 5 Touchdowns
**Advanced Stats & Metrics provided by Yards Per Fantasy, Player Profiler, Sharp Football Analysis, Fantasy Pros, Team Rankings, Pro Football Focus, Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference**
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