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Cam Akers, RB, Rams
I’m all the way back in on Cam Akers this year. If you remember, he was one of my favorite picks in early-summer drafts before he went down with the Achilles. I loved him because, well, he’s pretty freaking good. But also because he was getting a massive offense upgrade with the quarterback swap from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford. Now that we’ve seen that offense in action, I’m even more optimistic about what Akers can accomplish. The doubters will say he looked bad at the end of last season coming off the injury. Are you kidding me? The dude was literally six months removed from one of the most traumatic injuries a running back can sustain. It was a miracle he was even out there. Yet, after riding Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel for the duration of the season, it took no time for the Rams to hand the backfield over to Akers. He took 75-percent of the carries in the postseason while averaging 19 touches per game.Sure, he was not efficient with those touches, but let’s remember they played against the league’s third, seventh, and fifth-ranked rush defenses in the playoffs.
Now Akers has had a full year since the injury and should be back to his old self. This is a guy who averaged over 120 scrimmage yards per game over his last seven games (including postseason) in 2020. He’s going to be a workhorse in one of the best offenses in the league. He has no significant threats to his workload on the depth chart—the team’s usage of Sony Michel and then Akers at the end of the season tell me everything I need to know about how they view Henderson. In an offense that seemingly lived in the red zone in 2021, Akers will see plenty of scoring opportunities. I expect he will get more work in the passing game as well. The Rams haven’t been the most friendly offense for running back targets over the last few years, but Stafford has historically loved throwing to his running backs and Akers has the receiving profile to warrant a shift in that trend. At Florida State, Akers caught 53 passes over his final two seasons and had a 12.3-percent College Target Share (PlayerProfiler).
Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Broncos
Albert Okwuegbunam is my favorite breakout candidate at tight end this year. The road to fantasy production has been paved. From the departure of Noah Fant, to the upgrade at quarterback. Albert O is an athletic freak at 6-6, 258-pounds and 4.48 speed. Even while playing behind Fant last year, Okwuegbunam finished as a fantasy TE1 twice and was inside the top-25 another eight times. His rate of targets per route run was 29.9-percent. To put that in perspective, Travis Kelce’s rate was 25-percent. He’s a beast after the catch, too. In limited opportunities, he still ranked top-15 among tight ends with 255 yards after the catch. Now he gets to play with Russell Wilson at quarterback in an offense that projects to be among the highest scoring in the league. Okwuegbunam will present a fantastic weapon down the seams, underneath, and in the red zone for his new quarterback. I find it hard to imagine that he doesn’t finish as a top-10 scorer.
Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars
I was all-in on Travis Etienne last year before the preseason foot injury knocked him out for the season. Now he’s back healthy and returning to an even better situation than he was entering into as a rookie. With James Robinson rehabbing a late-season achilles injury, he’ll be watching from the sidelines in training camp as Etienne establishes himself as the top dog in the backfield. This is a former undrafted free agent coming off a significant injury against a young, (now) healthy first round pick who is far more dynamic. I’m not saying Robinson is going to be relegated to full backup duty. When he’s ready to go, he’ll still have a role as the between the tackles grinder. But Etienne will see the majority of work and, more importantly, he’ll be used a ton in the passing game.
Let’s not forget, Etienne was a dominant producer at the college level. He had back-to-back seasons with over 1,600 rushing yards during his time at Clemson. He scored 78 career touchdowns and caught an incredible 102 passes. The Jaguars have upgraded the offense this offseason to give Etienne and his former Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence every opportunity to thrive in their second season. They brought in a respectable coaching staff, spent up big in free agency to improve the weapons, and upgraded the offensive line.
We can easily project 200 carries and more than 50 receptions. That feels like the floor. His upside is the full Austin Ekeler role—210 carries, 90 targets, double-digit touchdowns. That’s a league-winner. And you can get him in the fourth round.
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Drake London, WR, Falcons
Drake London was on pace to have one of the most dominant receiving seasons we’ve seen in 2021 before fracturing his ankle. Yet, he still finished with over 1,000 yards receiving and averaged 11 receptions per game in eight contests. Even in his early days at USC, he was productive while playing alongside Michael Pittman and Amon-Ra St. Brown. He’s the clear WR1 in Atlanta with tight end Kyle Pitts as his only real threat for target competition. London is a big-bodied beast with all of the tools of a prototypical X-receiver and a YAC monster. Of all the players going around his ADP, London has by-far the most upside.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Broncos
We all love Javonte Williams. There’s no doubt about that and there’s no doubt about his talent. As much as we want him to take a stranglehold of the Broncos backfield, and become a top-5 running back in fantasy football, though, the reality is that Melvin Gordon is back. We can’t run from that and just wish Williams into a bellcow role. While splitting a backfield, Gordon operated as a high-floor RB2. He finished 11th in rushing yards with 919 on 203 carries and scored 10 touchdowns. Gordon showed that even in the later years of his career, he still has the juice. He was top-10 in both total evaded tackles and evaded tackles per touch (PlayerProfiler.com). The Broncos utilized him a bunch inside the 20, resulting in a top-12 finish in red zone touches. Now he’s in an upgraded offense with Russell Wilson at quarterback and an offensive minded head coach. That will open up a number of additional trips to the red zone and opportunities for Gordon (and Williams) to score fantasy points. The offense will be more pass-friendly as well which will naturally lead to ever-valuable targets and receptions on check down opportunities.
Gordon is an easy plug-and-play flex option or even a low-end RB2 for anyone waiting to draft the position later on. On top of that, he has top-12 upside if anything happens to Williams. He’s an easy pick at ADP on Underdog and all other platforms.
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers
I love drafting Leonard Fournette this year. But for the same reasons I love Fournette, I’m drafting a ton of rookie Rachaad White as well. At 214-pounds, White is an explosive athlete with sub-4.5 speed. On top of that, his receiving profile is exceptional. Not only did he lead Arizona State in rushing last year, but White also had the second-highest share of receiving yards on the team. He had an unbelievable 20.9-percent reception share while averaging 11.9 yards per reception. Now he’s in one of the best offenses in the league with a quarterback who utilizes his running backs in the passing-game as much as anyone.
Sure, he’s not guaranteed the RB2 job in Tampa, but it’s not like Ke’Shawn Vaughn has done anything to assume that job and Giovanni Bernard is a third-down only guy at this point and he may be washed. And yes, I understand we’re talking about a backup here. But he’s behind a 27-year old at the most injury-prone position in the game. If anything happens to Fournette, White has league-winning upside.
Tyrion Davis-Price, RB, 49ers
Could this year’s Elijah Mitchell actually be sitting on the depth chart behind Elijah Mitchell as we speak? He could be. Tyrion Davis-Price is bigger, stronger, and has greater size-adjusted speed than Mitchell, with a three-round advantage in draft capital. We all know Kyle Shanahan loves to run his lead backs into the ground. If he determines that Davis-Price is more cut out for that gig, then he presents the same league-winning upside we saw over stretches of the season from Mitchell last year. This is an offense that ranks fifth in neutral script rushing rate over the last two years (PlayerProfiler.com). Not only that, but they are all-in on their second-year quarterback Trey Lance who’s game is built around the rush attack. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not predicting TDP to step in and take over this backfield from Week 1. But at some point, whether it’s because of an injury to Mitchell, or Shanahan just wants a change, Davis-Price is likely to get his shot atop the depth chart at some point. When that happens, you’re going to be very happy you have TDP waiting in the wings.
Jalen Tolbert, WR, Cowboys
Jaylen Tolbert is one of my favorite picks in the double digit rounds. He’s coming into the league as a third-rounder who was massively productive in college. He’s an older prospect who is ready to step right in and be productive. It appears he will get that opportunity considering the Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper, let Cedrick Wilson walk in free agency, and are likely to start Michael Gallup on the PUP list. Looking at the current Dallas depth chart, Tolbert likely slides in as the WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb to start the season. He has the size and skill to hold his own out there and present a downfield weapon for Dak Prescott while Lamb is moved around the formation and Dalton Schultz eats underneath.
Dallas allows for a ton of fantasy points considering their preferred method of calling plays. The Cowboys were second in pace of play in 2021 and they were above league average in neutral game script pass rate. That’s an ideal environment for any playmaker and only strengthens the case for Tolbert.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
This is the third Denver player on the list. Can you tell I’m all-in on the Broncos offense this year? Courtland Sutton is my favorite of the bunch. He’s your prototypical alpha wide receiver. At 6-3, 218-pounds, he has above average speed and burst with elite agility and an incredible catch radius. With a combination of Drew Lock, Joe Flacco, and Brandon Allen at quarterback in 2019, Sutton managed 1,112 yards and six touchdowns on 72 receptions (124 targets). After missing nearly the entire 2020 season with a torn ACL, Sutton came back with a solid 2021 campaign. He had three 20+ point outings in the first six weeks. From there, he struggled to produce consistently while being hindered by Denver’s ever-worsening game of quarterback musical chairs.
Still, he led the team in targets and receiving yards. The peripheral numbers were encouraging, too. He finished the season eighth in air yards (1,534), fifth in unrealized air yards, second in average target distance (15.7), and sixth in deep targets (29) (PlayerProfiler.com). With new Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson—one of the league’s best deep ball passers—now tossing him the rock, Sutton could be one of the most productive receivers in the league in 2022. We know he’ll be on the field a ton—he was top-15 in snap share in 2021 while running a route on 92-percent of Denver’s drop-backs.
Somehow, he’s still being drafted at about the same ADP as teammate Jerry Jeudy despite the fact that Sutton has proven it and Jeudy is more of a projection. And let’s not pretend it hasn’t been a concerning offseason for Jeudy with an arrest and a mini-camp injury.
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