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Since 1997, we’ve seen a Pac 12 representative in the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl. This year, for the first time, we will see an ACC representative. Oregon takes on North Carolina in the 43rd Holiday Bowl in a battle of stellar quarterbacks.
When: Wednesday, December 28th @ 8:00 PM ET
Where: San Diego, California
Who: Oregon vs. North Carolina
Spread & Total: Oregon -12.5; O/U
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Tale of the Tape: Oregon Ducks
Oregon was the largest loser in Week 1, getting blown out 49-3 to Georgia. No one expected the Ducks to rattle off eight straight wins and actually be sniffing the College Football Playoffs. But a blown lead against Washington at home sealed their fate. It didn’t help losing in the Civil War against in-state rival Oregon State, either.
Offensively, Oregon is one of the best teams nationally. The Ducks scored 60 touchdowns over an 11-week period. It starts with Auburn transfer Bo Nix, who had his best year collegiately. Nix averaged 8.9 YPA (previous best was 7.1), 27 touchdowns (7.1% touchdown rate) and just six interceptions (1.6% interception rate). He also contributed 522 rushing yards on 80 carries, scoring 14 additional touchdowns on the ground. And the unsung heroes, the offensive line, only allowed four sacks all season.
Defensively, the Ducks do get torched through the air. But that’s the conference as a whole; despite ranking 106th nationally, Oregon is 7th in the Pac 12. Oregon can turn teams over, picking off opposing quarterbacks 16 times this year. That’s tied for the 4th best mark nationally.
Opt Outs
LB Noah Sewell (Second Team All-Pac 12 Defense; 55 tackles, 3rd on team)
CB Christian Gonzalez (Second Team All-Pac 12 Defense)
Transfer Portal Departures:
QB Jay Butterfield (3rd string)
RB Sean Dollars (34 carries, 188 yards and one touchdown)
RB Byron Caldwell
WR Dont’e Thornton (17 catches, 366 yards; both 4th among Oregon receivers)
WR Seven McGee
TE Terrell Tilmon
OT Bram Walden
OT Dawson Jaramillo
DE Bradyn Swinson
DE Justin Flowe
LB Jackson LaDuke
LB Adrian Jackson
Players to Know:
WR Troy Franklin
Named to All-Pac 12 Football Second Team. Led team with 56 receptions for 867 yards (15.5 YPC) and 8 touchdowns
DE Brandon Dorlus
Named to All-Pac 12 Football Second Team. 34 total tackles (nine for loss). 2.5 sacks ranks second on team
Tale of the Tape: North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye should have been in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. He’s the catalyst for this Tar Heels’ offense. He’s 3rd nationally in passing yards (4,115), 5th in passing touchdowns (35). He also leads the rushing attack with 134 carries for 836 yards and seven touchdowns. He will be without his favorite target, Josh Downs, who opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. The offense struggled down the stretch, averaging just 18 PPG in their three game losing streak to close the season.
Defensively, the Tar Heels are one of the worse among bowl eligible teams. 31.0 PPG allowed is the 8th worse with bowl eligible teams; at the time of this writing, teams in the bottom-ten are 1-6 in bowl games. And there are plenty of transfer portal entries on the defensive side of the ball.
Opt Outs:
WR Josh Downs (1st Team All-ACC; 94 rec/1,029 yards/11 TD)
Transfer Portal Departures:
QB Jacolby Criswell (2nd String)
DL Keeshawn Silver
LB Chris Collins
LB Raneira Dillworth
CB Tony Grimes (7 pass deflections)
CB Storm Duck (2nd Team All-ACC; 10 pass deflections; 3 interceptions)
CB Dontae Balfour
S Cam’Ron Kelley (49 tackles)
Player to Know:
LB Cedric Gray
First Team All-ACC Selection. 136 tackles ranked second nationally in the regular season. Five pass deflections, two interceptions, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries
WR Antoine Green
Third Team All-ACC Selection. With Josh Downs out, Green is expected to be leading receiver. 18.6 yards per reception. 43 receptions / 798 yards / 7 touchdowns during the regular season
Bowl Game Trends:
- Pac 12 has lost last five Holiday Bowls, all against Big Ten; 2-8 L10
- Ranked vs. Unranked: Unranked teams are 5-2 since 2000 when taking on ranked team (Oregon ranked 15th; North Carolina is unranked)
Game Synopsis:
It’s great we get to see both Nix and Maye in this bowl game. With that said, both pass defenses are poor. North Carolina will be without key pieces, including help in the secondary and Josh Downs. Downs did a lot for Carolina, accounting for 28.8 / 25.0 / 31.4% of the team’s receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, respectively. Oregon’s defense is used to high powered passing attacks. This is one of the few games where the spread is nearing two touchdowns. In a straight-up bowl contest, where North Carolina is without so much, I think Oregon takes care of business.
Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Oregon
Bowl Mania Confidence: 38/43
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