Nick Chubb: Future RB1?
This article is not supposed to encourage you to take Nick Chubb as the first running back off the board. It is merely a case to encourage you to buy him at his current value while you still can. This disclaimer is included so that I am not destroyed on Twitter as the idiot who thinks Chubb should be the first RB off the board.
2018 Season Statistics
Chubb finished fifth in the NFL in yards per carry in 2018. While yards per carry is an overrated statistic, it has value when paired with more advanced statistics such as yards after contact per attempt, a stat in which Chubb led the league at 4.47 yards. Chubb was fourth in the league in avoided tackles on rushing attempts, despite only starting nine games. He received Pro Football Focus’ highest grade for a running back with an 87.5. He also showed he was a more than capable receiver with 20 receptions on 29 targets, putting to rest the questions about is receiving skills coming out of Georgia.
Cleveland Browns Offensive Outlook
According to Pro Football Focus, the Browns boasted the second-best offensive line in 2018. The line remains mostly intact with Kevin Zeitler the only subtraction. Austin Corbett, who was last year’s second-round pick, should slide into the lineup and perform admirably. Nobody on the line is older than 28 years old. Along with projecting stellar offensive line play for years to come, many are projecting the Browns to be one of the top offenses in the league. Baker Mayfield is an up-and-coming quarterback who just broke the rookie TD record while only starting 13 games. Odell Beckham Jr. is a top-three WR in the NFL when healthy. Jarvis Landry is the premier slot receiver in the league. David Njoku has top-seven talent for a tight end while Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins are both underrated receivers who can make an impact down the field.
Nick Chubb is so good man
After just 16 carries with 1 target in first 6 games behind Hyde, he averaged 17.6 carries/gm with 20 rec on 29 tgts over final 10. Finished with 1,145 total yards & 10TDs
Was efficient too, with 30.2 Juke Rate (No. 11) & 1.83 Yds Created/carry (No. 8)
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) February 17, 2019
The Browns offense should be a top-five unit for the next five years with the talent on the roster and the innovation of head coach Freddie Kitchens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken. With the exception of the Colts, the top-five scoring offenses of 2018 all had players finish in the top-12 in fantasy points. None of the offenses in the top-10 had a finish lower than RB19. In 2017, the top-five scoring offenses each had players finish in the top-12, with the exception of Philadelphia. Eight of the top-10 had players finish 20th or better. The point is, good offenses produce good fantasy running backs.
Conclusion
It is easy to see how Chubb could end up as the dynasty RB1 as soon as 2020. He was extremely productive and performed as a top running back in the league during his rookie season. He can only learn more and become an even better player. Chubb is also tied to a young, up-and-coming offense which should be top-10 every single year. Buy Chubb while you still can.
