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COLTS VS BRONCOS
It seems like every team is down to their second string everything. Week 4 saw a lot of injuries and some little-used players put up some massive weeks. Let’s dig in deeper to separate the fool’s gold from the real thing. I’ll be putting my reputation on the line every week as I choose an entire fantasy team of lower-ranked players to score over a certain threshold of points, players that I trust. I’ll then choose another fantasy team of highly ranked players to score under a certain threshold of points, players that will bust. You’ll find a tally of my hits and misses throughout the season on each weekly article to make sure I’m holding myself accountable, and so all of you can call me bad names on Twitter.
Week 4 Results
- Geno Smith is your new QB10 on the year. This kind of offensive explosion won’t continue but Smith is now second in passing grade according to PFF. Geno has now entered the streaming-tier of quarterbacks but shouldn’t be relied upon against tough defenses. Isn’t this offense more fun with Geno than with Russell Wilson though? We can probably say that he’s #goodatfootball now, which wasn’t a sentiment you heard from even hardcore Seahawks fans before the season.
- Rhamondre Stevenson would’ve given me the win but Damien Harris stole the goal-line touches in this one. He still gave you a usable fantasy day and was graded well by PFF while doing so. It’s going to be a guessing game as to who gets the high-value touches on any given week in this backfield but, with his usage on passing downs, he seems to be an every week RB2.
- Kareem Hunt didn’t have the blow-up game I had imagined but he still has the same role that’s made him a very valuable running back the last few years. He’ll have some big weeks and some weeks like this one that don’t kill your team. It is notable, however, that his PFF running and receiving grade have both dropped this year. We’ll see in the coming weeks if it’s a trend or just a blip on the radar.
- D.K. Metcalf had his fantasy owners peeing their pants when they saw him leaving the field on a cart but it turns out he was just doing the same thing. He seems to be an every week starter and in a much better offensive environment than we thought. He went up against the same Jeff Okudah that was able to hold Justin Jefferson the week before (with help over top) to 14 yards on six targets. Metcalf said “miss me with that” and went off to the tune of 149 yards on 10 targets. He gets matched up with Marshon Lattimore this week instead of nobody.
- Treylon Burks looks like he could miss a few weeks with turf toe but he wasn’t being targeted much again this week when on the field. It didn’t help that the Titans have gotten back on track the last two weeks and were able to go into their run-heavy game script. This is probably a situation to avoid until we see them willing to pass much more than 21 times. If someone like Isaiah McKenzie or Rondale Moore is available on the waiver wire I wouldn’t hate dropping Burks at this point.
- Robert Tonyan was able to get a touchdown to squeak out 10.2 points but his usage didn’t keep the same upward trajectory this week. He ran a route on just 59 percent of dropbacks and had two targets. He’s going to put up a lot of duds with those kinds of numbers. Your best bet may be to stream someone with more targets off the waiver wire until you see Tonyan get to 70 percent of routes and command targets in this offense.
- I did a bad thing. I bet against Patrick Mahomes. Chris Collinsworth said, “he looks like the dad playing in the backyard with all the kids,” as he played with my emotions. This offense looks different without Tyreek Hill, but it can still be just as fruitful for fantasy managers. It’s going to be impossible to guess who will catch the touchdowns every week (hint: it won’t always be Clyde Edwards-Helaire), but it will certainly be Mahomes throwing them…and lots of them.
- The Titans have gotten back to their brand of football against two struggling teams. They have a -4.8 percent pass rate over expectation and are the fifth slowest team in terms of pace of play. Henry also looked better in this game, but not getting hit behind the line can do that for a running back. He’s actually been used quite heavily in the passing game the last couple of weeks as well which can really pump up his numbers. It looks like two or three catches should be the expectation for Henry going forward, especially with Burks missing time.
- Joe Mixon has been an eyesore all year running the ball, but his usage has been no joke. Through week 4 he leads the NFL, including Cooper Kupp, in expected fantasy points per game with 24! However, he’s been so inefficient with his touches, with a PFF rushing grade of 54.6, that he’s only scored 14.3 points per game. Normally that means a smash buy-low opportunity, but Mixon has just looked bad with his opportunities. I’m not sure he’ll keep getting all of these chances if he continues to disappoint.
- The Rams couldn’t take advantage of Trent Williams being out with zero sacks of Jimmy Garappolo and letting Jeff Wilson Jr. have a solid game on the ground. Deebo was held to just two yards rushing but outran all defenders for 57 yards for a touchdown to hand me the L on this one. This is not the same Rams team as last year. Stafford looks worn down, Allen Robinson looks cooked, and the defense is just above average. If they lose to Cooper “Clutch” Rush and the Cowboys next week it’s going to be a tough road to even make the playoffs.
- Amari Cooper showed that he’s not a WR1 in this offense with just one catch for nine yards. He’s a boom-bust WR3 until DeShaun Watson returns. When Cooper faces this kind of attention, with A.J. Terrell blanketing him, he usually doesn’t fare well. All of the attention on him made Jacoby Brissett focus more on Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku. Against tough matchups you can probably do better than Cooper.
- Kyler Murray did more Kyler Murray things with a big performance in the second half after a sluggish start. This offense looks stuck in the mud until they let Murray basically play off-script streetball after trailing early. That can work against struggling teams like Carolina and Las Vegas, but that could spell trouble when they face stiffer competition. This is good news for Ertz owners, however, as these game scripts keep getting him multiple looks in the redzone. With Rondale Moore working his way back and DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension in a couple weeks, the targets may trend down for Ertz soon.
Week 4 Record: 4-8
Season Record: 25-23
Fantasy Trust Circle: Week 5
I must choose a quarterback outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score over 20 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Carson Wentz (Week 5 Forecast: 310 Passing Yards, 10 Rushing Yards, 3 Touchdowns)
I know the Carson Wentz show has been going through a down period over the past two weeks but that was against top five defenses. He now gets a Titans defense that ranks bottom five in PFF coverage grade. Wentz may be without one of his favorite targets in Jahan Dotson, but Terry McLaurin should finally be able to feast on this defense allowing 36 points to opposing wideouts per game this year. Wentz showed he’s capable of beating up on these softer defenses in the first two weeks so he’s a quality streamer.
I must choose two running backs outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score over 15 fantasy points in a PPR format.
RB: A.J. Dillon (Week 5 Forecast: 80 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 25 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Fantasy managers came into 2022 with high hopes for Aaron Jones’ passing game usage, but A.J. Dillon actually ran a route on more dropbacks in week 4 and has consistently seen targets. Dillon hasn’t had the touchdowns yet so fantasy managers aren’t overly enthusiastic about his fantasy output so far, but that will change this week against a bottom ten rushing defense in the New York Giants. The Giants are a fraud at 3-1 so Green Bay is highly favored. I expect them to run the ball a ton in the second half and Dillon to find the endzone at least once.
RB: Nyheim Hines (Week 5 Forecast: 55 Rushing Yards, 6 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
Jonathan Taylor was officially ruled out of this Thursday night game, so Nyheim Hines becomes a quality PPR play. He should have an Austin Ekeler-lite usage out of the backfield with somewhere around 10 carries and most of the passing game usage. The Broncos are a solid defense but the way to beat them is on the ground, ranking in the bottom ten in the NFL. They have a beast of a pass rush, however, so Matt Ryan will look to Hines quickly with defenders in his face all game.
I must choose two wide receivers outside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score over 15 fantasy points in a PPR format.
WR: Robert Woods (Week 5 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 75 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
This should be a sneaky shootout with two leaky defenses, and Robert Woods has been ramping up his usage as the season goes on. He ran a route on 85% of dropbacks in week 4 and the Titans should have to throw the ball more than normal to keep up with Wentz and the Commanders. He seems to be finding his groove at the right time with his PFF receiving grade being higher than his past two seasons, and Treylon Burks shouldn’t be able to take away targets on the outside with a turf toe injury.
WR: Terry McLaurin (Week 5 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 90 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I already gave you the Wentz spiel, but McLaurin should be started in every league this week. He’s been rough on fantasy owners so far but Jahan Dotson won’t be around soaking up targets and Wentz could currently be fighting for his job. They have no trust in Antonio Gibson and, if Brian Robinson plays, they’ll be bringing him along very slowly. They’re currently 10th in passing rate at 67.4 percent, and I could see that trending up after this week.
I must choose one tight end outside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format.
TE: Dawson Knox (Week 5 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 45 Receiving Yards, 1 Touchdown)
I’m deeply sorry if you drafted Dawson Knox thinking you were getting a steal in the double-digit rounds, but it looks to be getting better. He ran a route on 69 percent of dropbacks which isn’t ideal, but he was able to earn his most targets of the year with six. Buffalo could be down to it’s third-string slot receiver this week in Kahlil Shakir, so they may need Knox more than ever. He also has a great matchup with a 17 percent matchup advantage against Pittsburgh. He’s not exactly what you drafted him to be but he’s a perfect streamer this week.
Fantasy Busts: Week 5
I must choose a quarterback inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score under 20 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
QB: Kyler Murray (Week 5 Forecast: 260 Passing Yards, 20 Rushing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 2 Interception)
This is a crazy stat that I saw this week: Arizona is last in EPA per play in the first half this year, and first in the NFL in the second half. They seem to get bogged down with a vanilla offense to start and then let Kyler play off-script in the second half. It’s maddening but it’s the Kliff Kingsbury experience. I don’t expect that second half trend to continue against one of the best defenses in the league in the Eagles. They’ve allowed just 10.9 points per games to quarterbacks this year and Kyler will be on the run all day.
I must choose two running backs inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
RB: James Conner (Week 5 Forecast: 45 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards)
Conner has been a big part of Arizona looking sluggish as he’s averaged just 3.3 yards per rush and ranks 28th in PFF rushing grade at 67.1. The touchdowns aren’t coming in bunches like last year and that trend should continue this week against a great defense like Philly. His usage has also been steadily dropping with a 62 percent opportunity share in week 4. Eno Benjamin looks fresh and explosive so he could continue to eat into the backfield pie.
RB: Najee Harris (Week 5 Forecast: 45 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 20 Receiving Yards)
Najee now ranks behind Hassan Haskins, Jonathan Williams, and Justice Hill in PFF rushing grade. Do you really want to start him against a top three defense with a mad pass rush and with a quarterback making his first career start? Harris now ranks 10th in expected fantasy points per game with 12.7 but he’s only been able to manage 9.8. The incredible usage he was supposed to see in 2022 just hasn’t been there, and Kenny Pickett threw to him exactly zero times last game. He may be more of a downfield passer than Trubisky was in the NFL, and that would limit Najee even more.
I must choose two wide receivers inside of the top 24 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score under 14 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
WR: Diontae Johnson (Week 5 Forecast: 5 Receptions, 55 Receiving Yards)
I’m fading this Steeler offense hard against the Buffalo defense. This is the first week Pickett has been able to run the first-team offense in practice. He also targeted Johnson just twice in his 13 attempts last week, with Freiermuth and Pickens each receiving the most with four. Pickens was who he threw to all offseason so he may have more of a connection with him. Regardless, everyone should be downgraded in this matchup.
WR: D.K. Metcalf (Week 5 Forecast: 6 Receptions, 50 Receiving Yards)
The Seahawks offense have been one of the best stories of the year so far. Geno Smith now ranks second in PFF passing grade and D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are reaping the rewards. In week 1 Seattle had their lowest offensive output against Denver with 17 points, and they’re again playing a quality defense in New Orleans. They’ve only allowed 13.5 points per game to opposing quarterbacks so Geno will come back to earth. He can’t play the Lions every week sadly. I expect Metcalf to get a heavy helping of Marshon Lattimore also, which should make this more of a Lockett game.
I must choose one tight end inside of the top 12 of FantasyPros consensus week 5 rankings to score under 10 fantasy points in a standard 6 point per passing touchdown format.
TE: T.J. Hockenson (Week 5 Forecast: 4 Receptions, 30 Receiving Yards)
As of this writing there hasn’t been an official ruling of Amon Ra St. Brown’s status for week 5 but that has a huge impact on what Hockenson can provide. The matchup isn’t as juicy as last week with just a -3 percent matchup advantage against New England and the game environment will be so much more….Bill Belichick-ian. The Patriots should be able to run the ball down the throat of the Lions and even ankle biting won’t stop them. Mac Jones should be out again so it’s not out of question that they opt for only 3 pass attempts similar to the Buffalo game last year. I also don’t expect Hockenson to ever again have an 81 yard reception.
RANKINGS | WEEKLY | DYNASTY |
