NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
NFL Divisional Round Best Bets
With the Wild Card round past us, we enter arguably the best weekend on the NFL calendar. Eight teams remain as they fight for an extra week of their season to the conference championship. Here are my favorite plays for the 2024 NFL Divisional Round.
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Wild Card Round: 3-3 (-.20 units)
Year to Date: 33-35-1 (-5.94 units)
(Sat.) #4 Houston Texans (10-7) vs. #1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Kansas City -8.5; O/U 41.5
Kansas City -8.5 (-108)
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are 13-5 ATS since 2018 when Mahomes became the starter. The Texans’ defense stole the show last week, forcing Justin Herbert to throw more interceptions in one game than he did the entire regular season. They also had two long touchdown drives – a 13-play, 99 yard drive, and a 14-play, 74 yard drive. The Chiefs’ defense has been sound at Arrowhead, allowing just 21.1 PPG since the start of the 2021 postseason. I think the Chiefs defense sets the tone and makes life difficult for the short handed Texans offense.
(Sat.) #6 Washington Commanders (12-5) vs. #1 Detroit Lions (15-2)
Detroit -8.5; O/U 55.5
Detroit -8.5 (-112)
Both of these offenses are among the league’s bests, with the Lions the highest scoring offense (33.2 PPG) and the Commanders 5th (28.2 PPG). But while we didn’t cash on Tampa Bay last week, rookie quarterbacks are still 6-14 in the playoffs since 2011. Last year, after C.J. Stroud and the Texans upset the Browns, they lost by 24 to the one-seed Ravens off extended rest. Tampa Bay had costly turnovers last week that led to late scores for the Commanders. Jared Goff has just six turnovers in December or later the last two years (14 games). I think the Commanders’ solid season comes to an end in Detroit this weekend, losing by multiple scores.
(Sun.) #4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) vs. #2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Philadelphia -6; O/U 43.5
Under 43.5 (-112)
Another game with weather implications, with the weather slightly above freezing and snow in the forecast. Philadelphia’s defense forced four turnovers last week against Green Bay, but struggled to capitalize. They scored just seven points off those turnovers, with each drive taking just three plays. The Eagles averaged just 322 YPG in their last seven games since the start of December with the Under going 5-2 in that span. The defense has been lights out, allowing 16.3 PPG in that span. But the Rams defense has been great as well, sacking Sam Darnold nine times last week. The Under is also 5-2 in Rams games since the start of December and 8-4 in Rams’ playoff games under Sean McVay. I expect Sunday to be a lower scoring game for this NFC showdown.
(Sun.)#3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) vs. #2 Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Buffalo +1.5; O/U 51.5
Under 51.5 (-115)
Wanted to lock this in under a key football number. Baltimore’s dominance on the ground goes well past the 299 yard performance last week. Zay Flowers will once again be absent in this one. In Baltimore’s playoff games with Lamar Jackson, the Ravens now run more than they pass (51.2% to 48.8%). The Ravens have averaged just 17.7 PPG in Jackson’s seven starts. Buffalo has averaged 31.5 PPG in the six Wild Card Round games, but that drops to 22.2 PPG in the Divisional Round and AFC Championship (1-4). And while Baltimore’s defense struggled early in the season, the Ravens played seven teams in the playoffs since November; they’ve allowed 15.1 PPG in those games. I’m on the Under in this heavily contested matchup.
What are some of your favorite Divisional Round NFL best bets? Let me know on X! Follow me @DrewRoberts_ on X for more football content!
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