NFC West Fantasy Preview
With training camps kicking off, I am previewing key questions for every team across the league with the goal of helping fantasy football owners formulate winning strategies. In my latest composition, I wander out to the NFC West. Los Angeles hopes to avoid a Super Bowl hangover. Considering the uncertain status of a certain superstar, it will be quite a challenge. Seattle counters the LA flash with a physical running game. Speaking of running, San Francisco’s backfield quandary became more difficult, but the 49ers should be better. And the cellar dwellers in Arizona embark on an offensive metamorphosis. Hopefully we will get your mind racing and contribute to your championship chase. Here is my NFC West Fantasy Preview.
Arizona Cardinals
Air Raid
For a team that went 3-13 last year, the Cardinals are captivating the fantasy community. New head coach Kliff Kingsbury, despite going 35-40 at Texas Tech, brings a hip approach to Arizona. Long a part of the heralded Air Raid offense, scoring points was never the problem for Kingsbury in Lubbock. And points should not be a problem in the Valley of the Sun either. Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray, the first overall pick in the draft, will run Kingsbury’s fast-paced attack. Having coached against Murray during his days at Tech, Kingsbury felt he was a perfect fit.
Naturally, some feel the partnership will not pan out. Many college coaches more successful than Kingsbury have struggled at the next level. One recent example would be Chip Kelly, now back at UCLA. Kelly thought his system could outweigh the losses of LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin. That led to his downfall in 2015 despite two straight 10-6 seasons. Kingsbury also loves his system, but appreciates the already existing talent on the Arizona roster. Beyond David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, one player who should thrive in the Air Raid attack is Christian Kirk. Alex Johnson strongly believes in Kirk’s breakout potential.
And of course, Murray ought to shine even though he will have the typical rookie growing pains. Many are planning on draft Murray as their QB1. In some of my articles so far, I have talked about quarterbacks with upside and pairing them with a safe veteran. I recommend that with Murray as well. But if everything goes as planned, Murray will help make your team a major contender.
Handy Andy?
Built on spread principles and a fast pace, Kingsbury’s offense will provide plenty of opportunities for fantasy gold. Players such as Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Kirk are known entities. But if the Cardinals are regularly running four and five wide receiver sets, other playmakers will emerge. Arizona drafted three receivers to have the capacity to potentially torment enemy defenses. Speed demon Andy Isabella comes from Massachusetts. Hakeem Butler heads to the Valley of the Sun from Iowa State. KeeSean Johnson hails from Fresno State. The Cardinals will not completely ignore their tight ends in the new scheme. That said, Ricky Seals-Jones was a disappointment last year. Arizona brought in Charles Clay to help fortify the position, but Clay looked finished in Buffalo. Barring a rebound from Seals-Jones, the rookies look to be in prime position.
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At the moment, if you had to choose one, it would be Isabella. He combines high dynasty value with decent redraft potential, especially with his price point being that of a WR5. But we will need to see how everything shapes up before the season starts. Somebody else could steal his sleeper potential. Nevertheless, the intrigue of Isabella remains real.
Los Angeles Rams
Todd Turmoil
This goes well beyond Los Angeles. If you are a fantasy owner in Fairbanks, Alaska or Fort Meyers, Florida, you think about Todd Gurley’s knee. The knee headlines the biggest story in fantasy football. If zero questions existed about Gurley’s health, he would remain a strong threat to go first overall in drafts. I mean, he has scored an incredible 40 touchdowns in the last two years. Instead, with arthritis talk, his ADP has plummeted. There are indicators that point to that usage never being the same again. Los Angeles matched Detroit’s offer for Malcolm Brown. Then, they selected Darrell Henderson out of Memphis in the third round.
For more on Henderson being a 2019 cheat code, check out this piece from Gregory Kowalczyk:
https://createarank.com/darrell-henderson-fantasy-football-player-value/
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So it seems Gurley will be a huge steal or a big disappointment, even factoring in his sagging ADP. Passing him up will be tough. Picking him could be even harder. Get ready to keep tabs on all things Gurley throughout the remainder of the offseason. Right now, Gurley remains the biggest wild card in fantasy drafts.
Cooper’s Comeback
Cooper Kupp’s recovery from a torn ACL has been somewhat overlooked thanks to the Gurley chatter. Before the injury, Kupp caught 40 passes for 566 yards and six touchdowns. Drafted in some cases as a backup, Kupp forced his way into weekly starter status. Cooper’s best game was in Week 4, where he massacred Minnesota for nine receptions, 162 yards, and two touchdowns.
This year, Kupp’s ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator casts him as an unquestioned starter. It appears most fantasy owners do not have reservations about his recovery. However, players heal differently. Kupp could easily struggle out of the gate. Therefore, owners need to cast a keen eye on Kupp’s recovery efforts. A hampered Kupp would have a hard time justifying his ADP. A healthy Kupp means his price will soar, but then this safe pick would be even safer.
San Francisco 49ers
Bay Area Backfield Anxiety
San Francisco’s backfield situation represents the biggest nightmare in fantasy football. Matt Breida performed well in 2018, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. On the other hand, Breida fought injuries all year and missed two games. And Breida was not supposed to be San Francisco’s main ball carrier. The 49ers signed Jerick McKinnon away from Minnesota, only to see him sidelined all year with a torn ACL. Not only has McKinnon returned, but San Francisco signed Tevin Coleman. Coleman worked with San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta. Even long shot returnees Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert had their moments last year.
In Shanahan’s proven system, the orchestration of fantasy points remains a near certainty. But trying to diagnose Shanahan’s distribution of playing time drives fantasy owners batty. I would not blame you if you chose to avoid this mess altogether. For now, Coleman looks like the “safest” bet. If you dare to try and decipher this situation, scrutinize all of the tidbits as much as you can. Landing the best back of this group provides an edge your competition lacks.
Jimmy G’s Return
Jimmy Garoppolo’s season ended in Week 3, when he suffered a torn ACL during a loss to Kansas City. The loss of Garoppolo sunk San Francisco’s season. However, even in the midst of a lost year, the supporting cast for Jimmy G developed. George Kittle emerged as one of the best tight ends in the NFL. Promising wide receiver Dante Pettis looks poised to take a second-year leap. San Francisco stockpiled further assets in the draft with Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd. The aforementioned Coleman has proven to be a capable receiver out of the backfield. Speedstar Marquise Goodwin also returns for his third season with the team.
Garoppolo’s readiness for the start of the season does not appear to be in question. As long as that remains, owners will focus on Jimmy G’s sleeper potential and not his health. With the weapons around him, Garoppolo ought to have huge weeks in best ball formats if nothing else. It would not be surprising if he develops into a regular redraft asset as well.
Seattle Seahawks
Penny Lane
Last year, many critics admonished the Seahawks for using their first-round pick on Rashaad Penny. For the most part, those critics did not have to take back their criticism. Chris Carson earned the largest role in the Seattle backfield. Penny had conditioning issues and missed some time later in the season. Overall, it was an uneven debut. That said, Penny created some enchantment at times. In Week 10 against the Rams, Penny contributed 108 yards and a touchdown. Later, he averaged 9.3 yards per carry and another touchdown in a clash with the 49ers. This year, the headlines about Penny’s conditioning are much more positive. And with Mike Davis gone, little competition stands in the way of Penny challenging Carson for more work. Luke Wall expands further on Penny’s positives. Carson will not go away quietly, though. Regardless, if the optimistic buzz translates for the remainder of the summer, Penny lurks as a tremendous value.
Targets for the Taking
Doug Baldwin’s last season was not his best, but his retirement leaves a huge void in the Seattle offense. Knowing they needed reinforcements for Russell Wilson, the Seahawks drafted three wide receivers. The big name draftee was combine superstar D.K. Metcalf, followed by Gary Jennings, and John Ursua. It may be tough for anyone to generate consistent production in Seattle’s unadventurous offense outside of Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks take pride in their old school run and then run some more offense.
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But any offense with Wilson can only ignore the passing game for so long. Who would be next in line behind Lockett? Most speculation says Metcalf, and with good reason. At 6-3 and 228-pounds with no shortage of speed, Metcalf lurks as both a deep threat and red zone weapon. David Moore, the only prominent returnee besides Lockett, had 26 receptions in 2018. Seattle lacks standouts at tight end.
It will be both fun and crucial to chart Metcalf’s progress. Maybe Jennings ends up looking better. Potentially Seattle finds someone out of nowhere who clicks incredibly well with Wilson. Perhaps one of the other unknown holders takes a measurable leap. But if Metcalf hits all the right notes throughout the rest of the offseason, look out.
