Navigating the Running Back Dead Zone In 2024
The Running Back Dead Zone: Which RBs To Target & Avoid
The early rounds of fantasy football drafts are fun. We get to draft our favorite studs and the hit rates are high. The late rounds are even more fun because, while the hit rates are low, we get to flag plant our favorite sleepers and if you hit big it is going to change the entire trajectory of your team.
However, it’s the middle rounds that are filled with landmines. Once you descend into the running back dead zone (Rounds 3-7), the waters become murky. This is the most dangerous area of drafts. The hit rates start to go down, but the stakes are still generally high. You don’t want to whiff on a pick in the top-7 rounds.
So often we see fantasy drafters tank their season in these rounds. They’re trying to get a “solid RB2.” Or they’re going hero/zero RB and choose the wrong guy to be the RB1. Just ask the managers who took Dameon Pierce last year. Or Alexander Mattison. Javonte Williams. Rhamondre Stevenson. Miles Sanders. Cam Akers.
But that doesn’t mean we should be afraid of the running back dead zone. Instead, we need to think of it as an opportunity to gain an edge on our competition. There are hits to be had. Think Travis Etienne last year. Rachaad White came from the dead zone to be a top-5 running back. Breece Hall was in those rounds. As were Alvin Kamara and David Montgomery.
You just need to know who to target and who to avoid at all costs. That’s the purpose of this exercise. We’re going to navigate through the running back dead zone, pick-by-pick, and determine which running backs are worth drafting in 2024 and which will put your team in the grave.
All stats referenced in this article are courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com
Travis Etienne
ADP: 4th Round
- RB7 in fantasy points per game in 2023
- No. 7 in Targets (73), No. 6 in receptions, No. 5 in receiving yards
- 1,008 rush yards
- 12 total TDs
- No. 4 in evaded tackles
- Quality Jaguars offense
- Receiving Upside
- Little backfield competition
- Most expensive of the dead zone RBs
Verdict: DRAFT
Confidence Level: 8
Isiah Pacheco
ADP: 4th Round
- 15.3 fantasy points per game in 2023 (RB14)
- Faces little backfield competition
- Workhorse in the Chiefs offense
- Touchdown upside
- 50 red zone touches in 2023 (7th)
- Underrated receiver (49 targets in 2023 & Could be more involved in the receiving game in 2024
- Jerick McKinnon gone
- Explosive runner (No. 11 in breakaway run rate in 2023)
Verdict: DRAFT
Confidence Level: 9
Josh Jacobs
ADP: 5th Round
- New team
- Best offense he’s ever been in
- Workhorse role (but not bellcow)
- 10+ TD upside
- Production and efficiency dipped in 2023
- Injuries have started to stack up
- Unlikely to break into top-10 RBs
- MarShawn Lloyd could earn a greater role than projected
- Matt LaFleur has a history of using a two-RB system (even with Derrick Henry)
Verdict: FADE
Confidence Level: 5
James Cook
ADP: 5th Round
- Strong second half of 2024
- Top-12 RB in four straight weeks from Weeks 11-15
- Just three other top-15 performers rest of season
- No. 4 in rushing yards
- No. 10 in carries
- Overrated receiver
- No. 19 in targets (54)
- 44 receptions (17th)
- No. 25 in target share among RBs
- Upgraded depth behind him with rookie Ray Davis
- Low TD upside
Verdict: FADE
Confidence Level: 6
Joe Mixon
ADP: 6th Round
- New team
- 28 years old
- Has been inefficient for years
- Outside the top-30 RBs in 2023 in: yards per carry, yards per touch, evaded tackles per touch, breakaway run rate, yards created per touch
- Has gotten by on volume + touchdowns
- In a good offense/elite QB play
- Little backfield competition
- The definition of a ‘dead zone’ running back. Things look good on paper but drafting him is DANGEROUS
Verdict: FADE
Confidence Level: 7
Rachaad White
ADP: 6th Round
- Was the steal of 2023 drafts & will be again in 2024
- RB4 in total fantasy points in 2023
- True bellcow
- 64 receptions (No. 4) & 272 carries (No. 2)
- Doesn’t come off the field: 77.4% snap share
- One of the best receiving RBs in the NFL
- 70 targets. 549 receiving yards (No. 3)
- No. 5 in yards per reception; No. 1 in catch rate
- No. 6 in evaded tackles
- 1,169 yards created (No. 2)
- Has the explosiveness to create more breakaway runs behind upgraded offensive line
- Zero backfield competition
Verdict: DRAFT
Confidence Level: 10
Kenneth Walker
ADP: 6th round
- Will continue to lose some receiving work to Zach Charbonnet
- One of the most explosive RBs in football
- Devastating tackle breaker
- No. 2 in evaded tackles per touch, No. 3 in total broken tackles
- Will lead backfield in touches
- Drafting him for the explosive plays and boom weeks
Verdict: DRAFT
Confidence Level: 6
David Montgomery
ADP: 7th Round
- Major competition for touches with Jahmyr Gibbs but should have enough of a role to return value at ADP
- Will lead DET in carries
- Will split red zone work with Gibbs
- In one of the league’s best offenses that should provide plenty of fantasy points
- Lions have produced multiple top-24 RBs in back-to-back seasons
- Still a run-first/balanced offense
- Top-12 ceiling in the case of a Gibbs injury
- Target running backs in good offenses
Verdict: DRAFT
Confidence Level: 7
Alvin Kamara
ADP: 7th Round
- 29 years old
- Not the same shiny toy from a few years ago but still has something in the tank
- Could lose a significant number of carries to Kendre Miller
- Has the receiving role on lock
- 87 targets in 2023 (in 13 games)
- Top-5 in target share, yards per route, catch rate
- Still has check-down Charlie at QB
- Was RB3 in fantasy points per game in 2024
- Has never finished worse than RB13 in FPPG
- Will likely be his worst fantasy scoring season yet, but can still be an RB2/RB3
Verdict: DRAFT
Confidence Level: 6
Aaron Jones
ADP: 7th Round
- First instinct is excitement thinking about Aaron Jones in an above-average Vikings offense. But then we remember that Kirk Cousins is gone and now they have Sam Darnold and a rookie at QB
- 29 years old
- Still showed some explosion in 2023 but the injuries and wear and tear are adding up
- Ty Chandler could present more competition than expected
- Even if he hits, he won’t hurt you by not drafting him. The league-winning upside is gone.
Verdict: FADE
Confidence Level: 7
Rhamondre Stevenson
ADP: 7th Round
- The Patriots just locked him up with a fairly lucrative extension
- The offense will continue to lean on the run game
- Combination of Jacoby Brissett and a rookie at quarterback
- Could be a bottom-3 offense
- Low upside
- High volume but lacking in high value touches
- Likely to lose a significant number of targets to Antonio Gibson
- Bad offensive line
- Generally avoid running backs in bad offenses especially when they aren’t projected to be heavy receivers
Verdict: FADE
Confidence Level: 7
Najee Harris
ADP: 7th Round
- Run-heavy offense
- Playing for a new contract
- 250+ carries
- Has run for 1,000+ yards in all three seasons
- Offense could exceed expectations with Russell Wilson at quarterback
- Explosive: top-5 in runs of 15+ yards in 2023
- Will continue to split with Jaylen Warren but the offense will be backfield-centric so there will be enough touches for both to eat
Verdict: DRAFT
Confidence Level: 5
Which RBs are you targeting & avoiding in the running back dead zone in 2024 fantasy football drafts? Join us on Discord and let’s discuss!
RANKINGS | REDRAFT | DYNASTY |
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