Myles Gaskin: The Best RB Value of 2021?
Myles Gaskin came out of nowhere in 2020 to be a highly-productive fantasy running back, much like James Robinson did in Jacksonville. The only real difference is Robinson was a rookie and was healthy for the full season. Yet, Gaskin isn’t getting the respect that Robinson would be (and was getting) had the Jaguars not taken Travis Etienne in the first round. Unlike Jacksonville, the Dolphins did not feel the need to invest significant assets into the running back position, instead choosing to stick with their proven workhorse. Sure, they added career backup Malcolm Brown in free agency and used a seventh round pick on Gerrid Doaks, but neither project to threaten Gaskin’s status in the backfield. When Gaskin missed some time last year due to injury, he returned to assume the same heavy-usage he had been receiving prior to going out. That was despite Salvon Ahmed playing well in his absence. Gaskin wound up finishing top-10 in both snap share and opportunity share among all running backs. There’s no reason to believe the Dolphins would change their feeling about his ability to be the workhorse now.
While it was Gaskin’s first shot at taking on a significant workload since coming into the NFL as a seventh-rounder in 2019, he did it for multiple seasons in college. During his time at the University of Washington, Gaskin ran for no less than 1,268 yards in each of his four seasons with more than 220 carries and double-digit touchdowns every year. In 10 games (seven starts) in 2020, Gaskin rushed for 584 yards on 142 carries (4.1 YPC) and five total touchdowns. He was quietly one of the most effective pass-catching running backs in the league. While averaging 4.7 targets per game (13.4% Target Share), Gaskin racked up 388 receiving yards, the seventh most of all running backs. He averaged 9.5 yards per reception (No.1) and his 2.08 yards per route were top-3, as was his 87.2% catch rate. He even took 18 (No.10) snaps from the slot. (PlayerProfiler)
Gaskin was just as efficient on the ground. He managed to evade 50 tackles (No.16) and had a Juke Rate (evaded tackles per touch) of 27.3% (No.13). (PlayerProfiler) The Dolphins used him in the red zone a ton, as he had 42 red zone touches (4.2/game). That’s all well and good, but what we really care about is his fantasy production. Well, he shined in that area too. He finished 2020 as the RB10 on a per game-basis (16.4 fantasy points per game). In his 10 games, Gaskin finished as an RB1 three times and was in the top-24 on eight occasions. When it mattered most, Gaskin delivered 169 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns while finishing fantasy championship week as the overall RB2.
2021 Outlook
Everything is looking good for Gaskin to smash his ADP in 2021. He should continue to hog the backfield touches in one of the league’s fastest ascending offenses. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is in line to make a big second-year leap. The additions of speedy wide receivers Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle—paired with the established DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki—should make the offense one of the most improved in the NFL. The offense will be both more efficient and more explosive. That means more plays, more trips to the red zone, and more scoring opportunities for a guy like Gaskin.
With an ADP in the fifth round on Underdog (RB24) and into the sixth on Sleeper (RB25), Gaskin is perhaps the best value in drafts right now. His workload alone makes him an RB2 to target. But when we factor in red zone usage, receiving game prowess, and one of the better offenses in the league, Gaskin should be going in the third round. He is an absolute steal at cost with upside to finish as an RB1.
