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Must-Draft Running Backs
Last week I gave you three running backs I’m refusing to draft in 2022. I figured I’d be a little more positive this time around and deliver the five running backs I absolutely love to draft. Let’s get it.
Aaron Jones, Packers
Can Aaron Jones be this year’s Austin Ekeler/Christian McCaffrey? Hear me out. Jones has always excelled as a pass-catcher. He’s averaged 49 receptions per season over the last three years. He was seventh among running backs in targets in 2021 and 10th in target share (12.9%). We all know Davante Adams is no longer in Green Bay and the Packers did very little to replace him. That will open up more opportunities for other pass-catchers in the offense to take a larger piece of the target share pie. But what if a big chunk of that work goes to Jones rather than the raw second-round rookie Christian Watson or the washed up Sammy Watkins? There isn’t a whole lot of juice left to squeeze out of Allen Lazard’s talent, either. But we know Jones is good—no, excellent—in the receiving game. We also know that Aaron Rodgers has leaned on him in the past when Adams wasn’t in the lineup.
In fact, during his career when Adams is out, Jones has averaged an additional eight fantasy points per game. He sees an extra two targets, two receptions, more than 40 additional receiving yards and nearly half a touchdown. That’s per game. If we extrapolate his non-Adams games to a full season, Jones’ pace would equal out to 100 targets, 76 receptions, 824 receiving yards, and eight receiving touchdowns (Rotoviz). That’s a solid season for a wide receiver, never mind a guy who’s also taking 175-plus carries as well. Of course, the extrapolation game is a dangerous one to play, but it at least helps us visualize the impact Adams being out of the lineup can have.
Let’s address the AJ Dillon factor. If Jones is seeing career-highs in the receiving game, Dillon’s presence will have a minimal impact on Jones’ fantasy output. Dillon will take those between the 20s grinder back carries. He’ll eat up the tough yards. That’s what he did last season, too. Dillon saw a stacked front on nearly 10-percent of his carries compared to Jones’ 3.5-percent. (PlayerProfiler.com) That will actually help Jones stay fresh, healthy, and on the field for the more valuable touches. Unfortunately, that will include some red zone work but if we assume the Packers deploy these two backs similarly in that area as they did last year, it will be okay. It was an even split. Jones had 47 red zone touches (No.9) and six goal line carries. Dillon saw 46 red zone touches (No.12) and six goal line carries (PlayerProfiler).
Jones has been an RB1 in each of the last three seasons. That’s the floor. Twice he was top-5 in fantasy points per game. Now he has an opportunity for a 100 target season. The path to overall RB1 has been paved.
Travis Etienne, Jaguars
I was all-in on Travis Etienne last year before the preseason foot injury knocked him out for the season. Now he’s back healthy and returning to an even better situation than he was entering into as a rookie. With James Robinson rehabbing a late-season achilles injury, he’ll be watching from the sidelines in training camp as Etienne establishes himself as the top dog in the backfield. This is a former undrafted free agent coming off a significant injury against a young, (now) healthy first round pick who is far more dynamic. I’m not saying Robinson is going to be relegated to full backup duty. When he’s ready to go, he’ll still have a role as the between the tackles grinder. But Etienne will see the majority of work and, more importantly, he’ll be used a ton in the passing game.
Let’s not forget, Etienne was a dominant producer at the college level. He had back-to-back seasons with over 1,600 rushing yards during his time at Clemson. He scored 78 career touchdowns and caught an incredible 102 passes. The Jaguars have upgraded the offense this offseason to give Etienne and his former Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence every opportunity to thrive in their second season. They brought in a respectable coaching staff, spent up big in free agency to improve the weapons, and upgraded the offensive line.
We can easily project 200 carries and more than 50 receptions. That feels like the floor. His upside is the full Austin Ekeler role—210 carries, 90 targets, double-digit touchdowns. That’s a league-winner. And you can get him in the fourth round.
PROJECTIONS TEMPLATE – GET NOW!
D’Andre Swift, Lions
D’Andre Swift seems to be under-appreciated every season. Yet, he’s finished as RB16 and RB10 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. That was while playing on a bottom of the league offense. The Lions have upgraded the offense in 2022 which will improve efficiency, create more opportunities, and red zone trips. Either way, Swift will continue to rely on his elite traits as a pass-catcher to rack up the fantasy points. In 2021, Swift was second among all running backs with an 18.4-percent target share. That resulted in 78 targets (six per game) which was fourth-most. Remember, that was in 13 games (12 if we don’t count leaving week 12 with an injury and a 20% snap share). He was fifth in number of routes run (297; 23/game) and top-12 in weighted opportunities (PlayerProfiler.com).
We all know his receiving talent at this point. His biggest critics tend to go after his skills as a runner. To them I would point to metrics like yards created per touch in which he ranked No.1. Or breakaway run rate, and evaded tackles per touch. He ranked top-15 in each. Swift has a chance to take 210-220 carries (his 2022 pace was 204) with 100 targets (2022 pace of 102). Topped with some additional red zone work in an improved offense and the fantasy production will be through the roof. I’m happily taking him in the middle of the second round with that upside.
Melvin Gordon, Broncos
We all love Javonte Williams. There’s no doubt about that and there’s no doubt about his talent. As much as we want him to take a stranglehold of the Broncos backfield, and become a top-5 running back in fantasy football, though, the reality is that Melvin Gordon is back. We can’t run from that and just wish Williams into a bellcow role. While splitting a backfield, Gordon operated as a high-floor RB2. He finished 11th in rushing yards with 919 on 203 carries and scored 10 touchdowns. Gordon showed that even in the later years of his career, he still has the juice. He was top-10 in both total evaded tackles and evaded tackles per touch (PlayerProfiler.com). The Broncos utilized him a bunch inside the 20, resulting in a top-12 finish in red zone touches. Now he’s in an upgraded offense with Russell Wilson at quarterback and an offensive minded head coach. That will open up a number of additional trips to the red zone and opportunities for Gordon (and Williams) to score fantasy points. The offense will be more pass-friendly as well which will naturally lead to ever-valuable targets and receptions on check down opportunities.
Gordon is an easy plug-and-play flex option or even a low-end RB2 for anyone waiting to draft the position later on. On top of that, he has top-12 upside if anything happens to Williams. He’s an easy pick at ADP on Underdog and all other platforms.
Rachaad White, Buccaneers
I love drafting Leonard Fournette this year. But for the same reasons I love Fournette, I’m drafting a ton of rookie Rachaad White as well. At 214-pounds, White is an explosive athlete with sub-4.5 speed. On top of that, his receiving profile is exceptional. Not only did he lead Arizona State in rushing last year, but White also had the second-highest share of receiving yards on the team. He had an unbelievable 20.9-percent reception share while averaging 11.9 yards per reception. Now he’s in one of the best offenses in the league with a quarterback who utilizes his running backs in the passing-game as much as anyone.
Sure, he’s not guaranteed the RB2 job in Tampa, but it’s not like Ke’Shawn Vaughn has done anything to assume that job and Giovanni Bernard is a third-down only guy at this point and he may be washed. And yes, I understand we’re talking about a backup here. But he’s behind a 27-year old at the most injury-prone position in the game. If anything happens to Fournette, White has league-winning upside.
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