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Formerly known as the Hall of Fame Bowl and the Outback Bowl, the first game of 2023 kicks off in Tampa, Florida at the ReliaQuest Bowl. The 22nd ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Illinois Fighting Illini. This will be Mississippi State’s first game without head coach Mike Leach, who passed away due to heart complications in December.
When: Monday, January 2nd @ 12:00 PM ET
Where: Tampa, Florida
Who: Mississippi State vs. Illinois
Spread & Total: Mississippi State -2.5; O/U 46
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Tale of the Take: Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State is one of the most lopsided teams in terms of run/pass splits. 615 drop backs on the year (71.3%) to 247 rush attempts (28.7%). Jo’quavious Marks has just 103 rush attempts on the year in 11 games. He has contributed 9 of the team’s 12 touchdowns on the ground. Backup Dillon Johnson is in the transfer portal; freshman Simeon Price has the next most among available players. Price has just 28 carries on the year and under 100 yards rushing. Will Rogers is the leader of this Mike Leach air raid offense. Top-10 nationally in passing yards (3,713) and passing touchdowns (34; 6% touchdown rate). Has thrown just 6 interceptions on 566 attempts (1.1%).
Mississippi State is one of the best at turning over opposing quarterbacks. Allowing just 6.4 YPA (T-23rd), the Bulldogs have intercepted opposing quarterbacks 14 times, a top-15 mark nationally. The Bulldogs allow 4.1 YPC on the ground and have forced 9 fumbles. Mississippi State’s defensive coordinator, Zach Arnett, was named the team’s permanent head coach in the wake of coach Leach’s passing.
Opt Outs: N/A
Transfer Portal Departures:
RB Dillon Johnson (2nd on team with 89 carries, 488 yards (5.5 YPC) and 3 touchdowns)
RB J.J. Jernighan
RB Ke’Travion Hargrove
WR Rara Thomas (Leads team with 626 receiving yards; 44 receptions and 7 touchdowns)
WR Zavion Thomas
WR Scoobie Ford
S Dylan Lawrence
Players to Know:
#82 WR Rufus Harvey & #4 WR Caleb Ducking
Rogers’ next two favorite targets with Rara Thomas out. Harvey leads the team in receptions (50); added 472 yards (9.4 YPC) and 3 touchdowns. Ducking leads the team with 8 receiving touchdowns. Ducking has 44 receptions for 467 receiving yards (10.6 YPC)
#13 DB Emmanuel Forbes
First Team All-SEC. 10 pass deflections leads team. 6 interceptions leads team, ranks tied for 3rd most in FBS. Returned 3 interceptions for a touchdown, most nationally in the regular season
Tale of the Tape: Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois’s strength on offense is on the ground. Unfortunately for Illinois, their lead back Chase Brown has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Reggie Love III has the most carries after Brown; 59 carries for 277 yards and 2 scores. Quarterback Tommy DeVito, a Syracuse transfer, leads the charge at quarterback. Completed 69.9% of his attempts for 7.2 YPA. 15 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions.
Illinois is one of three teams to allow fewer than 10 touchdowns via the pass and run. 5.4 YPA allowed is the best mark in the country. They have the most interceptions (22) by a defense, three more than USC’s team total. Illinois’s 3.2 defensive YPC mark is the 9th-best mark on the ground in the country. Illinois has forced more fumbles (8) than rushing touchdowns allowed (6). Illinois’s defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters, accepted the Purdue head coaching position. Walters was a finalist for the Broyles Award, awarded to the top assistant coach in the country.
Opt Outs:
RB Chase Brown
(Second Team All-Big Ten. 328 rush attempts (66.4% of team’s attempts).1,643 rushing yards ranks 2nd most in the regular season. Added 10 rushing touchdowns)
TE Luke Ford
CB Devon Witherspoon
(Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year. First Team All-Big Ten. 14 pass deflections (T-7th most nationally) leads the team. 3 interceptions)
DB Sydney Brown
(First Team All-Big Ten selection. 59 tackles ranks 2nd on team. 7 pass deflections, a team lead 6 interceptions. One interception returned for a touchdown. Fumble recovery for a touchdown)
Transfer Portal Departures:
RB DD Snyder
Player to Know:
#1 WR Isaiah Williams
If the team were to turn to the pass with Brown out. 72 receptions, 595 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns all lead the team
#21 DB Jartavius Martin
Third Team All-Big Ten selection. 59 tackles ranks 2nd on team. 11 pass deflections was 2nd most on team. Recorded 3 interceptions
Bowl Game Trends:
- Ranked teams vs. non-ranked teams are 1-3 in the last decade
- ReliaQuest bowl history: SEC – 19-13; Big Ten – 13-20
- Since 2019, ranked SEC teams are 16-4 in bowl games
- Of those ranked SEC teams, those that were favored (17) are 10-6-1 ATS
- Per Chris Fallica, Big Ten teams against SEC teams since 2015 are 7-17
Game Synopsis:
Illinois is missing key pieces on both sides of the ball. The absence of Chase Brown on offense now relies Reggie Love III and Chase Hayden to man the load. Neither had many reps, and Mississippi State’s defense remains near full strength. Can Tommy DeVito (4.5% touchdown rate) generate offense if the running duo cannot?
Illinois is without two First Team All-Big Ten defensive backs that anchored the best pass defense in the country. Mississippi State is without their top receiver, but still has options for Will Rogers. Rogers completed 68.6% of his attempts on the season; Illinois’s defense held opponents under 50%, the lowest rate in the country. I think these defensive losses, along with the loss of running back Brown, are crucial for Illinois. Mississippi State wins this one.
Bowl Mania Pick To Win: Mississippi State
Bowl Mania Confidence: 24/43
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