Miami Dolphins 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
2025 Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Outlook
The Miami Dolphins underwent their worst season in the Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa saga in 2024. It was especially bad for fantasy owners. Standouts such as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle quickly saw their spark diminish. Despite the dud and a volatile offseason from Hill, the Dolphins are going full throttle and running it back with this unit.
But the question still lingers; how much can we trust this Dolphins offense?
Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Outlook
The commander of the offense but also the biggest wildcard. The Dolphins were predictably an entirely different team when Tua was on the field. When counting only the weeks Tua played, the Dolphins ranked 2nd in passing yards and 1st in completion percentage. However, Tua still put up pedestrian fantasy numbers. He was only QB15 in fantasy points per game. It was a similar story in 2023, his career year where he led the league in passing. He was QB22 in fantasy points per game. And it boils down to his lack of rushing ability.
With quarterbacks now being able to run wild, the approach for targeting fantasy quarterbacks has shifted. Passing is no longer the priority. And we’ll likely never be able to see Tua utilized in the rushing game, especially with his concussion issues. The lack of upside mixed with his injury concerns makes him a hard pass, even at his discounted ADP.
Devon Achane/Jaylen Wright Fantasy Outlook
With Raheem Mostert’s early season injury, Devon Achane took the keys of the backfield and ran with it…literally. He became the engine of the offense and fueled them into becoming a respectable unit.
Achane’s value deteriorated after Tua’s injury. He averaged only 9.8 fantasy points per game without Tua. That number jumps to 22.3 with Tua. The most notable change was his receiving volume. Achane was swimming in targets with Tua, averaging 6.6 per game. He averaged 2.6 without.
Efficiency wise, Achane took a steep decline. In 2023, he averaged 7.8 yards per carry, 3.3 yards after contact per carry and had a 21.4 explosive run rate. In 2024, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, 2.6 yards after contact and had a 10.3 explosive run rate. This isn’t too concerning, it’s still respectable efficiency and understandable he wasn’t able to maintain extraordinary numbers. He now has the volume to make up for it. But a big part to blame for this decline is the offensive line, which is a concern. In 2023, the Dolphins ranked 3rd in yards before contact/attempt and 13th in stuffed runs percentage. In 2024, they ranked 27th in yards before contact/attempt and 1st in stuffed runs percentage. They did bring in Jonah Savaiinaea and James Daniels but it’s questionable whether or not it’s enough to compensate for Terron Armstead retiring and it’s likely not enough to pull them back into the prominent run blocking unit they were in 2023.
Achane received a boatload, but can Jaylen Wright cut into it? In the lone game he received adequate usage, he had 86 yards on just 13 carries.Tyreek Hill hinted at Wright taking on the power back role this upcoming season. However, I don’t expect Wright to be more than a high end handcuff. Achane is still one of the more efficient backs despite the poor offensive line performance and the heavy workload. Achane has proven he’s capable of handling a bellcow role and it shouldn’t change this season.
With an early second round ADP, Achane should be a prioritized target in drafts. The injury can ring some alarms but there isn’t any cause for concern yet and he can be an even better value if his ADP continues to fall due to the injury. With his 3 down role and receiving volume, he should be a first round pick. Getting him in the second round is a bargain. As for Wright, there isn’t much upside for him unless Achane misses time. And even then, Ollie Gordon has been turning heads and there’s a real possibility he wins the RB2 role.
Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Outlook
Similar to everyone else in the offense, Tua’s injury had a detrimental effect on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Without Tua, Hill averaged only 10 fantasy points per game and Waddle averaged 6.8. However, even with Tua, the star receivers were a shadow of their usual form and fell flat. Hill averaged 15.9 points per game and Waddle averaged 12.7. Although these are solid numbers, they didn’t pay dividends.
Hill especially experienced a massive drop-off. He was coming off a career year and was being drafted as the overall WR1. What changed? It’s a blend of father time and the offense. Hill is on the wrong side of 30 and the Dolphins offense is no longer prioritizing him.
Hill has always thrived as a deep threat using his blazing speed. It was a primary reason for his career year in 2023 as he led the league in yards on deep passes. Tua ranked 16th in air yards/attempt (7.8) and 16th in deep throw percentage (9.8%) that year. In 2024, those numbers dropped, ranking last in air yards/attempt (5.6) and last in deep throw percentage (5%). The Dolphins offense is changing, taking away their emphasis on the deep passing game and transferring it to the quick game. Tua ranked 3rd in short passes per game after ranking 24th in 2023. He also ranked 1st in quick passes and 1st in screen passes per game.
Why is the offense changing? My best guess is the offensive line. McDaniel wants to keep Tua healthy and getting him hit achieves the opposite. He likely doesn’t trust the offensive line to keep Tua upright, especially if he’s dialing up deep balls. Leaning towards the quick passing game helps the offensive line and protects Tua. And it worked. The Dolphins maintained great passing efficiency, ranking 6th in EPA/dropback in games Tua played. Considering the offensive line remains questionable and the conservative approach worked, it’s unlikely we’ll see a change in 2025.
Hill experienced significant volume decrease all across the board. He went from 10.7 targets per game in 2023 to 7.2 in 2024. His first read target share dropped from 19.9% to 13.4%. His designed targets dropped from 24 to 10. But Jonnu Smith was the root cause of this. He led the team in short targets. Now that he’s gone, Hill may be able to retain that volume back.
However, those vacant targets should go more towards Waddle. In every season the two wideouts have played together, Waddle trumps Hill in yards after catch per reception and yards per target on short throws. Waddle is tailored to be the primary option in an offense tethered to the short passing game. It makes sense to give the younger, less problematic option more looks.
Hill and Waddle’s production were relatively comparable when Tua was on the field, being separated by 3 points. But Waddle was starting to catch stride, averaging 20.2 fantasy points and 8.3 targets in his final 3 games with Tua. The offense is also headed in a direction Waddle is better molded for.
Hill’s late second-early third round ADP is a landmine. His floor is shaky and his ceiling isn’t as high as the community thinks. Tua’s injury concerns makes him a huge risk and he doesn’t have the upside to make up for it with the offense being incredibly conservative, leading to his shrinking role. Waddle, the cheaper option, is the receiver to target in the offense. He carries similar risk but the price isn’t nearly as high, going roughly 40 picks after Hill, and he should consume more of the vacated targets Smith left behind.
Wrap Up
We’ve seen what the offense is capable of doing. Achane was elite with Tua last season. Hill and Waddle can coexist and both put up numbers. But the offense is dependent on Tua staying healthy. And it’s hard to trust that. The offensive line being weak makes matters even worse. The dramatic change in aggressiveness from 2023 to 2024 adds an extra layer of unpredictability as well. Everyone in this offense carries a risk. But for some, it’s worth investing in.
