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Managing Rookie Expectations: Tight Ends

August 3, 2023

Managing Expectations For 2023 Rookie Tight Ends

Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. This year’s rookie class is regarded as one of the most talented groups in recent memory.

But how do tight ends fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for the 2023 rookie tight ends? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season – and how they back it up in their sophomore season.

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Rookie Finishes

To keep the ‘Managing Rookie Expectations‘ series consistent, we go back the last six years. In that span, 87 tight ends were selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in half-point per reception scoring formats, here is how rookies finished in their first season:

Only two tight ends – Kyle Pitts (TE5; 8.8 PPG) and Evan Engram (TE4; 9.4 PPG) – finished as a top-12 tight end as a rookie. And just 11.5% of rookie tight ends have finished in the top-24 at the position. Meaning: most rookie tight ends are not reliable fantasy football options. But for those who have, let’s look if there are any trends based on their draft capital.

1st Round Selections

Of the 87 tight ends selected over the last six years, here is the breakdown of which round they were selected:

Two of the seven first round rookie tight ends finished top-12 at the position. However, three of the five who were outside the top-12 as rookies – David Njoku (TE9; 7.2 PPG), O.J. Howard (TE11; 10.4 PPG) and T.J. Hockenson (TE4; 9.2 PPG) – were top-12 in their second season. Noah Fant just missed TE1 status, finishing TE13 his second season, while Hayden Hurst was TE37.

So, if you are banking on early success for rookie tight ends, make sure the team used first round capital. But what if that first season wasn’t a hit?

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Rookie TE2s

In the last six seasons, we have seen just eight (9.2%) tight ends finish as a TE2 in their rookie season. While this is not ideal, each improved on that finish in their second season.

Five of the seven finished as a TE1 the following season. Fant (TE13) missed two games in 2020, while finishing just seven points outside of a TE9 finish. Chris Herndon played in just two games his second season.

Excluding Herndon’s shortened 2019 season, rookie TE2’s points per game average jumped from 5.9 to 8.9 in their sophomore campaigns. Cade Otton is the lone TE2 from last year’s class.

Conclusion

Tight ends tend to take time to transition from the college ranks to the NFL. But based on those who have made an impact, you should bank on first round picks. Enter Dalton Kincaid, who has a chance to be the second option in the Bills/Josh Allen passing game.

Michael Mayer of the Raiders and Sam LaPorta of the Lions could also be options as rookies. If this rookie class was not as deep at the position, both could have drawn first round capital. They should be lower than Kincaid, but are worth a late round flyer, or at least keep an eye for the waiver wire. Given how talented this rookie class is, it’s important to manage expectations for rookie tight ends.