Managing Rookie Expectations: Running Backs
Managing Expectations For 2023 Rookie Running Backs
Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. This year’s rookie class is regarded as one of the most talented groups in recent memory.
But how do running backs fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for the 2023 rookie running backs? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season – and how they back it up in their sophomore season.
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Rookie Finishes
To keep the ‘Managing Rookie Expectations‘ series consistent, we go back the last six years. In that span, 135 running backs were selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in half-point per reception scoring formats, here is how rookies finished in their first season:
The 2017 rookie running back class proved to be an outlier in multiple areas. First, they are the only class in the last six years to produce more than one RB1, producing the RB3, RB4, RB8, and RB11. It is also the only class to see prominent success from round three running backs; Alvin Kamara (RB3) and Kareem Hunt (RB4) finished in the top-5. Saquon Barkley (2018 RB3) and Najee Harris (2021 RB4) are the only other rookie running backs in the last six years to finish in the top-5 at the position.
While this is helpful, let’s look at a round-by-round breakdown of how rookies fair depending on their draft capital.
1st Round Selections
Of the 135 running backs selected over the last six years, here is the breakdown of which round they were selected:
As we have seen with the running back contract disputes over the last few weeks, the emphasis on draft capital has taken a back seat compared to receivers.
However, if a running back is selected in the first round, they tend to provide fantasy football upside immediately. Four of the nine round one running backs finished as an RB1.
Eight of the nine first round running back selections since 2017 came from a Power Five school, with Rashaad Penny being the exception. Those seven running backs (Etienne missed his entire rookie season) averaged 14.7 PPG in half-PPR scoring formats as rookies. Depending on the year, that 14.7 PPG mark would rank as the RB9 thru RB12.
This result improves if they were drafted in the top-10, like rookie Bijan Robinson this year. Barkley, Leonard Fournette, and Christian McCaffrey each garnered top-10 draft capital and averaged 16.5 PPG as rookies. Each of the three finished as a RB1, ranging from RB3 to RB11. Barkley’s RB3 finish is more impressive than his finish indicates, considering it is the 7th best mark for running backs in the last six years for a 16-week fantasy football season.
Given the small sample size of round one rookie running backs, how do other rounds fair as rookies? Let’s look at running backs selected on Day 2 of the NFL Draft.
More: The WORST Pick In Every Round Of 2023 Fantasy Football Drafts
Day 2 Selections
Just under one quarter of the running backs selected in the last six drafts have come on night two. Here are those who were selected in the second round.
While only one running back – Jonathan Taylor – has produced a RB1 season from round two, there is still plenty of upside in this round. For those who played, round two selections have averaged 10.4 PPG in half-PPR formats since 2017. Their end of season finishes can be misleading; Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall both averaged at least 15 PPG, but played less than half of the season. Both finished top-10 in their rookie season in PPG a their position.
While round three is on the Friday of the NFL Draft, we have seen a significant dip in production when comparing to round two selections.
Round three running backs have averaged just 6.5 PPG in half-PPR scoring formats since 2017. That includes outliers Hunt and Kamara; without their breakout rookie seasons, third round rookie running backs average just 5.1 PPG. Only one additional running back – Devin Singletary – averaged over 10 PPG, compared to nine of 15 (60%) of the round two selections. David Montgomery is the only back to finish as a RB2 from the third round as a rookie.
If there was a significant drop off from the second to third round, what about the drop off from a day two selection to a day three selection?
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Day 3 Selections
Going back to the graph under 1st round selections, it’s clear day three selections do not start as quickly as early round picks. This shouldn’t be a surprise; yet, what is surprising is the best finish by a day three NFL prospect came last year with Dameon Pierce.
Only 19 of the 93 day three selections (20.4%) finished in the top-60 at the position. And this is not due to missed time; Chris Carson is the only rookie not on the list who averaged over five PPG. Carson played in just four games as a rookie. However, we could see more opportunities for later picks. The top four performances and six of the top eight for day three selections have come in the last two draft classes.
Each of the top three in Pierce, Elijah Mitchell, and Michael Carter landed in ideal spots where they could get touches relatively quickly. This is similar to Roschon Johnson’s situation in Chicago.
Conclusion
The 2023 rookie running backs class should have fantasy football managers excited. History shows Bijan Robinson should be in for a productive season. Jahmyr Gibbs has low end RB1 potential, but will likely be a high end RB2 given his draft capital and receiving upside. Even in a competitive backfield with another round two pick, Zach Charbonnet could outperform his current ADP of a RB3/4 as a rookie.
Be mindful of the round three and day three selections. Hunt and Kamara’s monster rookie seasons can create lofty expectations for Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, Devon Achane, and Tank Bigsby. These should be thought of as RB3/4s, with a RB2/high end FLEX being a hit. Lastly, keep an eye on training camp for injuries or hold outs for the day three selections. If there is a quick path to playing time, you could find a FLEX worthy back in the later rounds. Otherwise, be mindful it could be a slow start for the later 2023 rookie running backs.
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