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Managing Expectations For Rookie Wide Receivers
Year after year, the NFL welcomes a new pool of talented rookies. In those rookie classes, one of the deepest positions in each draft tends to be the wide receivers. And for good reason: the league continues to be pass oriented. And as a result, wide receivers are welcoming Brinks trucks and turning into one of the higher paying positions. A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Cooper Kupp have all signed massive contracts this offseason. Other deals are expected for DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin in the not so distant future.
But how did they fair in their rookie seasons? How should we be managing expectations for rookie receivers in this year’s class? Let’s look at how rookies have performed in their first NFL season, along with traits from their college careers.
Rookie Finishes
Over the last five years, 163 receivers have been selected in the NFL Draft. Based on total points in half-PPR format, here is how rookies finished in their first season:
As it takes most rookies time to get acclimated in their first professional season, it should be no surprise to the slow starts. Looking at previous years, the most top-36 rookie receivers in a given class has been five. However, we have seen rookies pay off in recent years, with two producing WR1 numbers and five as WR2 over the last three years. At worse, we have seen WR2 production from at least one receiver in each class going back to 2017.
But we can dive deeper into what makes rookies stand out early in their careers. One trait many look at when evaluating receivers is their class ranking upon entering the league.
Declaring Early
Receivers declaring early often leads to fantasy success. Of the 23 receivers who finished better than WR5, 17 declared early:
Chase Claypool, Terry McLaurin, Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp, Darius Slayton, and Deebo Samue are the six standouts to stay for a full college career. Only Claypool finished as a WR2; the other five finished as WR3s. Of this year’s receivers selected in the first three rounds, Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, Christian Watson, Tyquan Thornton, Alec Pierce, and Velus Jones Jr. chose to play their senior season and not declare early.
Round selection also plays a factor. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Darius Slayton are the only Day 3 rookies to finish as a WR3 or better over the last five years. Four Day 3 receivers in this five year window have finished as top-60 in total points for half-PPR leagues: Darnell Mooney, Gabriel Davis, Antonio Callaway, and Hunter Renfrow.
Conference Selection
The conference of a player tends to matter as well:
Makes sense; the top talent, typically, goes to Power Five schools. And if they start at a Group of Five school, with the activity of the transfer portal and NIL money at major universities, players will likely transfer to the larger school.
Over the last five years, only three rookies finished as a WR4 or better who did not come from a Power Five school – Chase Claypool (Notre Dame), Cooper Kupp (East Washington), and Diontae Johnson (Toledo). In this year’s class, Christian Watson, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore, Jalen Tolbert, and Danny Gray were all Day 2 picks from Group of Five schools.
The SEC rookie receivers tend to play the best. Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson – both from LSU and declaring early – have the WR1 finishes. The SEC has produced 39 receivers over the last five years, doubling every other conference with the exception of the ACC’s 22. Nine of the 17 receivers who have finished as top-36 receivers come from the SEC; the only other conference with more than one is the PAC 12 with three. The SEC receivers in his year’s class who declared early were Jameson Williams, Treylon Burks, Wan’Dale Robinson, John Metchie III, and George Pickens.
Conclusion
Based off recent history, the 2022 rookie class will see players produce in their first year. While Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson type seasons are rare, expect a rookie or two to be reliable fantasy options by midseason. Do not hesitate in grabbing your favorite rookie receiver in this year’s draft. Just be mindful of their conference status and if they declared early.
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