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The Citrus Bowl will pit the SEC and Big Ten against each other in Orlando, Florida. Both schools made it to their conference championship game, but lost to Georgia and Michigan. LSU is in their first bowl game in Brian Kelly’s first year with the school. Purdue is making a bowl appearance in their second consecutive year and 4th time in the last six years.
When: Monday, January 2nd @ 1:00 PM ET
Where: Orlando, Florida
Who: LSU vs. Purdue
Spread & Total: LSU -15; O/U 54
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Tale of the Take: LSU Tigers
LSU will be without key offensive pieces. Their 2nd, 3rd, and 5th leading receivers will be unavailable for the bowl game. The key for LSU is quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels played hurt towards the end of the season, but is reportedly healthy and ready to go for the Tigers. Daniels also led the Tigers on the ground, rushing 223 times for 1,018 yards and 11 touchdowns (removing times sacked and sack yards lost).
LSU will be without defensive starters in the bowl game; only 6 of 11 regular season starters will suit up for the Tigers. When fully healthy, LSU gave up 5.4 yards per play. LSU on defense allowed 7.1 YPA and only intercepted opponents 6 times. The 6 interceptions ranked in the bottom-25 nationally. LSU surrendered 4.1 YPC on the ground, but they did force 17 fumbles. That’s tied for the 2nd most in the country.
Opt Outs:
WR Jaray Jenkins
(Leads team with 6 receiving touchdowns. 27 receptions for 404 yards)
WR Kayshon Boutte
(2nd on team with 48 receptions for 538 yards in 11 games)
NT Jaquelin Roy
EDGE Ali Gaye
(35 tackles, 2 sacks)
EDGE B.J. Ojulari
(56 tackles, 5 sacks tied for 2nd on the team; forced and recovered a fumble)
CB Jay Ward
(4 pass deflections, 54 tackles, interception)
CB Mekhi Garner
(4 pass deflections, 43 tackles)
Injuries:
WR Kyren Lacy
(22 receptions, 211 receiving yards)
RB Armoni Goodwin
WR Chris Hilton Jr.
CB Sevyn Banks
Transfer Portal Departures:
WR Jack Bech
TE Kole Taylor
G Xavier Hill
OT Cam Wire
OT Marcus Dumervil
EDGE Desmond Little
LB Kolbe Fields
LB Phillip Webb
CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson
CB Demarius McGhee
S Derrick Davis Jr.
Players to Know:
#8 WR Malik Nabers
Leads team in receptions (63) and receiving yards (854).
#40 LB Harold Perkins Jr.
All-SEC Second Team selection. True freshman was 3rd on the team with 69 tackles. Led team with 7.5 sacks. 4 pass deflections, an interception, and 3 forced fumbles
Tale of the Tape: Purdue Boilermakers
This Purdue team will look like a shell of itself on offense in the bowl game. A team that relies heavily on the pass will be without all-conference players in quarterback Aidan O’Connell, wide receiver Charlie Jones, and tight end Payne Durham. Jones and Durham accounted for 47.4/ 51.4/ 80% of the team’s receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. 6th-year quarterback Austin Burton will replace O’Connell. He has 103 career attempts. Purdue as a team averages just 31.1 rushing attempts per game. Devin Mockobee led the charge for the Boilermakers on the ground, accounting for 182 carries for 920 yards (5.1 YPC) and 9 touchdowns.
Purdue, defensively, allowed 4.0 YPC on the ground. They rank as the 40th best success rate on the ground. Through the air, the 7.4 YPA was only better than Michigan State and Indiana in conference. They do force turnovers though; 14 interceptions only trailed Illinois and Wisconsin in conference.
Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm left to take the head coaching position at Louisville, where he played football years ago. Purdue will also be without defensive coordinator Ron English, who followed Brohm to Louisville. Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters will replace Brohm at Purdue, but not for the bowl game. He will have no bowl prep with the team. Instead, Jeff Brohm’s brother, offensive coordinator Brian Brohm, will be the interim coach for the bowl game.
Opt Outs:
QB Aidan O’Connell
(All-Big Ten Second Team selection. 2-year starter for Purdue. 64.1% completion rate, 3,490 passing yards (7.0 YPA), 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions)
WR Charlie Jones
(All-Big Ten First Team selection. 110 receptions, 1,361 yards and 12 touchdowns. Receptions and yards both top-5 nationally)
TE Payne Durham
(All-Big Ten Second Team selection. 2nd to Jones in receptions (56), receiving yards (560), and touchdowns (8))
CB Cory Trice
(Leads team with 10 pass deflections. Recorded 2 interceptions on the year, returning one for a touchdown)
Injuries:
RB King Doerue
WR Elijah Canion
WR Broc Thompson
Transfer Portal Departures:
RB Kobe Lewis
OG Spencer Holstege (starting LG)
DT Greg Hudgins III
Player to Know:
#8 WR T.J. Sheffield
Leading receiver returning; only receiver with over 30 receptions (39) and 300 receiving yards (424). Accounts for 3 receiving touchdowns, the only player with multiple scores outside of Jones and Durham.
#10 S Cam Allen
3rd on the team with 43 tackles. Leads the team (among those playing in the bowl) with 6 pass deflections and 3 interceptions; returned an interception for a touchdown
Bowl Game Trends:
- In the last 10 Citrus Bowl appearances where the SEC played the Big Ten, the SEC is 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS
- As a favorite against the Big Ten, the SEC has won the last 7, going 6-0-1 ATS
- Since 2019, ranked SEC teams are 16-4 in bowl games
- Of those ranked SEC teams, those that were favored (17) are 10-6-1 ATS
- Per Chris Fallica, Big Ten teams against SEC teams since 2015 are 7-17
Game Synopsis:
The SEC has had the Big Ten’s number in the Citrus Bowl, and this ties the largest Citrus Bowl spread (Florida was a 15-point spread over Penn State in 1998 where they won 21-6). Purdue’s offense is depleted, along with the coaching staff. LSU’s weakness on defense is on the ground, something Purdue rarely utilized. The Boilermakers may turn to the ground game more to reduce the number of possessions LSU has throughout the game. The only game backup Burton started for Purdue came in a nail-biting win over Florida Atlantic at home. I know Purdue gets extended time, but given their opt outs, I don’t see how they hang with LSU. Tigers win the Citrus Bowl.
Bowl Mania Pick To Win: LSU
Bowl Mania Confidence: 39/43
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