Leonard Fournette RELEASED: What Now?
After Leonard Fournette was released by the Jacksonville Jaguars, the first thing that came to most people’s heads was either, “I’m glad I avoided him” and “Damn it”. I’m in the second group as a Fournette-truther. But there is hope yet. The young running back (He’s only 25 which is younger than Derrick Henry) still has a bright future ahead of him.
What Kind Of Player Is Fournette?
Simply, Fournette is a north-south downhill runner. Whilst at LSU, he was a punishing running back, averaging over six yards-per-carry. Fournette also scored 22 touchdowns in his sophomore year, before suffering a series of light injuries that cut his junior year short. He was on pace for 1,457 yards and 14 touchdowns. College was a playground for a grown man like Fournette.
In the NFL, he continued to overpower defenders and was never afraid of a big hit. Despite all of his hard knocks, he hasn’t suffered any major injuries, mainly due to how he often delivers the hit. However, like in college, Fournette needs to build momentum to dominate. The only way to stop him is to tackle him at the line of scrimmage before he becomes a freight train. At Jacksonville, he suffered behind a bad offensive line year-after-year. Despite that, he’s posted two 1,000-yard-plus seasons in the NFL.
Fournette is a big play waiting to happen. He holds first and second place for the highest speed reached on a play as a ball-carrier for the 2017 season. As a back that ran a 4.51-forty, he beat speedsters like Tyreek Hill, Marquise Goodwin, and Martavis Bryant. Get him to the second-level and he can get to the end zone in a hurry.
By the numbers, the former-Jag has a playing style similar to Saquon Barkley. All or nothing. Both posted a breakaway run rate of 4-percent and higher, whilst also being stuffed on 20-percent or more of their runs.
Fournette is at his best under center rather than in shotgun. Among running backs with 200-plus carries, he had the fourth-highest yards per carry under center and second-lowest yards per carry in shotgun. Despite this, the Jaguars only used him in his preferred formation 77-percent of the time.
The former LSU Tiger did well on a poor team. They failed to surround him with talent and botched any trade negotiations by broadcasting any issues to the world. Thus, we have to look at landing spots and projections.
Which Potential Landing Spots Fit Fournette’s Style?
- A team with a strong offensive line that can open holes for Fournette to exploit
- A scheme with a preference for downhill running
- Scheme that uses it’s backs under center mostly
The Waiver Order, Analysis, and Projections
If Fournette clears waivers then he’s available for everyone but until then, the draft order determines who gets the first shot at Fournette. Not every team is in play for him but here’s a few of the top ones:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Whilst not a fit scheme-wise, as both Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard took snaps under center barely over 50-percent of the time, it is a place to consider. The Bengals have cap space, but could also save money by cutting Bernard. Fournette has shown an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, getting the ball at a running start.
Whilst improbable due to Mixon’s presence, it is possible. There has also been discontent from Mixon about his contract. Picking up Fournette for cheap could be an insurance policy in case of injury or holdout.
- 100 rushing attempts at 4.5 yards per carry
- 45 receptions at 10 yards-per-reception
- Up to three TDs
- PPR Fantasy Points: 153 (RB32 in 2019)
2. Washington
Again another spot that is not a scheme fit. Ron Rivera’s offense in 2018 had McCaffrey under center less than 50-percent of the time. The only reason why it is a fit is due to the lack of a top dog in Washington’s backfield. Adrian Peterson is aging. The rest are young and unproven.
Technically, Rivera could use Fournette like how he used McCaffrey. Fournette showed his receiving prowess last season. Washington’s offensive line is weak though. He will struggle to be more efficient here than he was in Jacksonville.
- 175 rushing attempts at 4 yards per carry
- 40 receptions at 9.5 yards-per-reception
- Up to three TDs
- PPR Fantasy Points: 164 points (RB26)
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers used Melvin Gordon under center nearly two-thirds of the time. Their offensive line is better than the Jaguars, barely. Their lead running back can play in the slot and outside. They have two young backs as back-ups but one of their young guys, Justin Jackson, just suffered a foot injury.
Picking up Fournette to pound the ball in between the tackles whilst Ekeler rests or jumps outside would be a great move. It helps lessen the burden on Taylor or Herbert, whilst giving them a chance to establish a strong running game to pair with an elite defense.
- 175 to 200 rushing attempts at 4 yards per carry
- 30 receptions at 9.5 yards per reception
- Up to five touchdowns
- PPR Fantasy Points: 168.5 (RB24)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Good offensive line. Great passing game to take defenders out of the box. High emphasis on running backs from under center. If Fournette goes to the Buccs then he’s going to ball out. We all know cap space is a myth. He’s too talented not to explode in this offense.
- 12 carries a game for 192 carries, at 4.5 yards per carry
- 40 receptions at 10 yards-per-reception
- Up to six touchdowns
- PPR Fantasy Points: 202.4 (RB18)
Whilst they may not be possible, they are some good landing spots.
If you have Fournette, hold on to him. You won’t get any value in a trade. If you want him, buy low, like really low. Unless the owner is willing to give him up for nothing, it’s not worth the risk.
