JK Dobbins and The Week 12 Rookie Stock Update

League-Winner JK Dobbins: Week 12 Rookie Stock Update

Week 11 was a tale of two sides.

On the positive, the rookie running backs exploded. JK Dobbins took over the Baltimore backfield, Jonathan Taylor halted his slide, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had his first multi-touchdown game for the Chiefs.

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But it wasn’t such a happy tale for the rookie quarterbacks. Tua was benched after a rough performance for the Dolphins and we’ve lost Joe Burrow for at least the rest of the 2020 season.

As always, I’m going to look at how the opportunities are developing for the rookies and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.

Here is the Week 12 rookie stock update.

Starters

Quarterback

Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Tua Tagovailoa

Joe Burrow

ACL – what a blow. I’m not going to insult the guy by listing off any of his stats or his pace, he’s done for the year now and we should be crossing our fingers he’s ready in time for 2021

Outlook: Hoping for a speedy recovery and a full-strength Burrow for Week 1 of 2021

Justin Herbert

49 – his joint highest pass attempts number on the season, matching his week 3 efforts against the Panthers
76-percent – remarkably, despite throwing so much he completed 76-percent of those pass attempts. In week 3 when he also threw 49 times, he put up a 71-percent completion rate
39 – his 16 game pace is 39 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns. That’s to go along with a pace of 4,798 passing yards

Outlook: Keep rolling him out there without hesitation. He’s creeping in to the top 5 conversation now

Tua Tagovailoa

68-percent – that’s his final snap percentage after he was benched in the 4th quarter. A rough day for the rookie
83 – all he mustered was 83 yards off 20 pass attempts before he was pulled. That’s just not going to get it done
23.1-percent – Tua sailed through his first few games under centre getting pressure no more than 9-percent of the time. That jumped significantly in week 11 and he just couldn’t cope with it

Outlook: Flores says he’s still the starter and he has two easy matchups against the Jets and Bengals in the next two weeks. He’s not a starter in 1QB leagues though

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Jonathan Taylor
Antonio Gibson
Joshua Kelley
D’Andre Swift (Injured)
JK Dobbins
James Robinson
Cam Akers
Zack Moss (BYE)
La’Mical Perine

Week 11 One-to-Watch: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

*Clyde Edwards-Helaire*
Snaps	40 (51-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Carries	14 (52-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Redzone carries	3 (60-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Opp 1-10 carries	1 (33-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Targets	2 (4-percent)	Last Week: BYE

14 – his rush attempts was his highest since week 6 but his 2 targets was his joint lowest on the season so far. It’s still Darrel Williams in the 2-minute drill
2 – it’s Clyde’s first multi-touchdown game of his NFL career with 2 touchdowns on the ground
Redzone – he did get a redzone touchdown but he’s still not exactly a goal-line back

Outlook: He’s clearly the lead back in KC and any concerns about Bell taking away significant work are long gone. You can roll him out with confidence as an RB2 with RB1 upside

*Jonathan Taylor*
Snaps	47 (56-percent)	Last Week: 17 (24-percent)
Carries	22 (59-percent)	Last Week: 7 (24-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	2 (50-percent)	Last Week: 4 (50-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0	Last Week: 2 (40-percent of team total)
Targets	4 (11-percent)	Last Week: 2 (5-percent of team total)

56-percent – his snap share in week 11 puts an end to a 3 week slide and restores him to his pre-bye rate. As a pure number, 47 snaps is highest since week 2 although there was OT in this one
26 – 26 opportunities (carries + targets) is a huge jump from the last few weeks and the second highest for him all season (28 in week 2). He’s had four games with more than 15 opportunities and put up over 100 total yards in three of them
Hot hand – although it looks like Taylor got the job this week, it was Hines who got the first go. If Hines exploded out the gate like he finished in week 10, I don’t see Taylor putting up these numbers. The Colts are still going to look for the hot hand each week

Outlook: Much better and he’s put himself back in the RB2 conversation. But be warned, this is still a hot-hand backfield and if he doesn’t fire in the first drive or two, it could be back to Hines

*Antonio Gibson*
Snaps	33 (53-percent)	Last Week: 33 (38-percent of team total)
Carries	16 (47-percent)	Last Week: 13 (50-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	5 (63-percent)	Last Week: 3 (50-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	3 (75-percent)	Last Week: 2 (67-percent of team total)
Targets	2 (8-percent)	Last Week: 4 (7-percent of team total)

25-33 – since week 2, Gibson has played between 25 and 33 snaps in every game. I don’t know if this is load management for a rookie on a team that’s struggled with injury, or that he’s not ready to play a bigger role, but it limits his upside
Gamescript – as I’ve noted for a few weeks, it’s all about Gamescript with Gibson. If Washington are behind, JD McKissic is the main man. If they’re ahead, it’s Gibson. And then Peyton bloody Barber to assist on the ground (Why Ron, Why?!)
Schedule – the Cowboys next week might not be as easy as they looked before the bye and there’s Pittsburgh. It could be a limited role for Gibson over the next few weeks but remember that week 16 game against the Panthers on the horizon

Outlook: Roll him out as an RB2 in the hope he gets a touchdown. Temper your expectations over the next few weeks though, it could be McKissic time

*Joshua Kelley*
Snaps	11 (13-percent)	Last Week: 17 (27-percent)
Carries	4 (15-percent)	Last Week: 7 (24-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	1 (25-percent)	Last Week: 1 (10-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	1 (50-percent)	Last Week: 1 (14-percent of team total)
Targets	2 (4-percent)	Last Week: 0

2 – total yardage output in week 11, and that includes 4 receiving yards (so yes, negative rushing yards). Of his 4 carries, 2 of them were running out the clock

Outlook: Remember that kid that always got picked last and never got a turn? He’s ahead of Kelley in the Chargers backfield

*JK Dobbins*
Snaps	41 (63-percent)	Last Week: 29 (44-percent)
Carries	15 (45-percent)	Last Week: 5 (18-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	3 (43-percent)	Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (67-percent)	Last Week: 0
Targets	2 (7-percent)	Last Week: 2 (6-percent of team total)

Week 8 – 15 carries, 2 targets and 63-percent snap share is very similar to how it panned out in week 8 against the Steelers with Ingram out. The good news is he put up these numbers in week 10 with Ingram active
COVID – just as he seemingly breaks through, he goes and tests positive for Covid along with Mark Ingram. Week 12 is going to be a Gus-bus week so Dobbins managers will be hoping for him to struggle against a touch Steelers run D

Outlook: His Covid issue certainly puts the brakes on here. He looked like he was breaking out in week 8 and then dropped off again so without him being able to follow up in week 12, it’s hard to know for sure. If he’s on waivers, go get him and look out for a week 13 resurgence

*James Robinson*
Snaps	41 (71-percent)	Last Week: 53 (83-percent)
Carries	17 (100-percent)	Last Week: 23 (100-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	1 (100-percent)	Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 0 (team total = 0)
Targets	2 (5-percent)	Last Week: 5 (14-percent of team total)

Workhorse – Robinson continues to be the sole workhorse running back in this Jacksonville team and got 100-percent of carries in this one (not a QB scramble, not a kneel-down, nothing else). 17 carries is the first time below 20 for four weeks but that’s still great volume
Targets – his targets got a bump in week 10 but I did note that it could have been a necessity due to the weather. Well sure enough his targets came back down in week 11. With Luton at QB, it doesn’t look like he’s going to target Robinson much
Playoff Schedule – this is still a concern for me. I love Robinson’s production and he seems to be able to delivery regardless but he gets the Ravens and Bears in weeks 15 and 16. That’s a problem

Outlook: Robinson is very much deserving of a top 12 running back and you can play him there to help get you in to your playoffs. If you’re already set for the playoffs and your transfer deadline hasn’t passed, see if you can trade him for a similar player with a better schedule. But don’t panic, you can keep playing him with confidence

*Cam Akers*
Snaps	12 (17-percent)	Last Week: 18 (26-percent)
Carries	5 (25-percent)	Last Week: 10 (34-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	0	Last Week: 5 (56-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0	Last Week: 2 (40-percent of team total)
Targets	1 (2-percent)	Last Week: 0

12 – 12 snaps is his lowest since returning from injury, not a great sign
3 headed monster – this is still very much a three-headed monster went the going got tough in a close game, Akers wasn’t the main man
High value touches – he’s still not getting the goal-line looks on the ground and only got one target in the whole game. The good news is that target was close to the end zone and he got his first career touchdown

Outlook: He’s not getting anywhere near enough of this backfield to be anything more than a deep bench stash in the hope that everyone else falls down around him

*La’Mical Perine*
Snaps	11 (18-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Carries	8 (33-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Redzone carries	1 (17-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: BYE
Targets	1 (3-percent)	Last Week: BYE

Injury – he left this one with injury in the 3rd quarter so the pure numbers are a bit misleading
47-percent – prior to his injury, he got 47-percent of the running back carries. Half of those were at the end of the first half in a hurry-up offense

Outlook: The injury clouds this one but I haven’t advocated for Perine for a while and I’m not going to start now. It’s a bad offense and he’s splitting with Frank Gore, you don’t need to own him unless you’re in a deep league

Wide Receiver

Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Brandon Aiyuk (BYE)
Justin Jefferson
Tee Higgins
Henry Ruggs
Chase Claypool
Denzel Mims
KJ Hamler
Jalen Reagor
Michael Pittman Jr
Gabriel Davis (BYE)
Bryan Edwards

Jerry Jeudy

27-percent – his 8 targets was a 27-percent target share. That jointly led his team with Tim Patrick and marks four consecutive games with 8+ targets
37.5-percent – seriously, this dude just cannot get above a 50-percent catch rate, catching 37.5-percent in this one and now averaging 48-percent on the season
Two games – that’s still how many times he’s been a top-36 PPR receiver this year (one against the Falcons, one against the Jets) after finishing outside the top 50 in week 11

Outlook: Targets are great but they aren’t enough on their own. You really don’t need to keep playing him

CeeDee Lamb

6 targets – a 19-percent target share was joint second on his team but was only good enough for 34 receiving yards
2 rush attempts – might not sound like much but the Cowboys are finding ways to use him and that’s 7 rush attempts now on the season
Touchdowns – he might not be putting up big yardage numbers but he’s a good shot for a touchdown every week. And when you can haul it in like he can, why wouldn’t you keep throwing it his way?

Outlook: Not ready to trust him just yet but you can put him in the WR3 conversation with touchdown upside

Justin Jefferson

5 targets – back to the lower target total again but this time he was efficient with it, putting up 86 yards and a touchdown
Passing volume – the equation is pretty simple. When the Vikings pass the ball, Jefferson gets plenty of opportunity and turns it in to solid production. It’s the run-heavy games that hurt him, not his talent
Schedule problem – the schedule problem facing him for the next few weeks is that the Vikings face some run-friendly defenses in Carolina and Jacksonville. However, they then face Tampa Bay, Chicago and New Orleans who are all solid against the run and that could open things up for Jefferson through the fantasy playoffs

Outlook: You have to play the matchups at this point and put your money where your mouth is on gamescript. I’m still hedging my bets in the WR2 range knowing he can win me a week or lose me one, but with excitement about what the fantasy playoffs could bring

Tee Higgins

10 targets – his highest target total of the season. Unfortunately, 3 catches was his joint lowest, as was his 26 yards
Joe Burrow – there’s no good way of spinning this, Joe Burrow’s injury hurts Tee Higgins’ fantasy value moving forward

Outlook: I said last week to play him with confidence as a WR2 but I can’t say that with any conviction now his QB is down. Put him in the WR3 category and lower your expectations dramatically

Henry Ruggs

1 target – whenever you think it can’t get worse, it does
54-percent of snaps – his lowest of the season and it’s getting lower
Why – why are we still talking about him?

Outlook: If he’s still on your roster, I’m assuming you’ve either stopped looking at your team or it’s a 360 man league

Chase Claypool

63-percent of snaps – still the third receiver on his team in terms of playing time but he was second in terms of targets (8) in week 11
160 targets – that’s his new 16 game pace based on the last four games with the rest of the pass-catchers fit and playing. He’s not getting big yardage totals but he’s always a shout for a touchdown
10 touchdowns – in his first 10 games. That’s a rookie record through the first 10 games

Outlook: His yardage totals are still too low to trust him too much but you can put him in as a low-end WR2 with touchdown upside

Denzel Mims

90-percent of snaps – since he returned from injury, Mims has had three games in a row now of 90-percent or higher
8 targets – for the second game in a row and led his team despite target-hog Jamison Crowder being on the field
71 yards – his season high isn’t going to win you a weekly matchup just yet but is encouraging

Outlook: Target volume is good but it’s still the Jets and it will be interesting to see if Darnold turns back to Crowder when he’s under centre. Mims is an upside play in 3-receiver leagues at this stage

KJ Hamler

20-percent – 6 targets but a 20-percent target share makes it three in a row of 20 or 21-percent
Alpha – he’s battling Tim Patrick for this moniker but he’s shown himself to be a very adept receiver
35 yards and 0 touchdowns – despite the volume, it’s again not much of a return

Outlook: Like Jeudy, his volume is great to see and definitely a player to keep an eye in dynasty leagues. But this offense isn’t producing enough attacking returns to make any of their pass-catchers worth owning in all but deeper redraft leagues

Jalen Reagor

93-percent of snaps – he’s ramped up since his return from injury and that marks his highest of the season
52 yards – 5 targets was enough for a 14-percent target share and only 52 yards
Carson Wentz – boy oh boy, his Quarterback does not look good. Unless he starts playing significantly better than this, it’s going to hurt Reagor and most of his team mates

Outlook: He still has that bottled up potential to go off in a given week but I’m not relying on it anymore, especially the way this team is playing

Week 11 One-to-Watch: Michael Pittman Jr

Michael Pittman Jr

Touchdown – the Colts finally threw a touchdown to a wide receiver and it was the rookie who got it. After his 101 yard breakout in week 10, this was a great way to follow up
3 targets – but that’s not great, and outside of the 45-yard touchdown grab he got 2 targets for 2 receptions and 21 yards
80-percent – his snap share is solid, he’s getting on the field and is a big body receiver for Rivers to aim for

Outlook: I wasn’t panicking to pick him up last week and still see him as only a WR3 that needs a touchdown. He’s starting to look like the Mike Williams type of target that Rivers was used to in LA

Bryan Edwards

15-percent of snaps – he’s 4th in receiver snaps and not really getting much of a sniff
1 yard – not much to work with I’m afraid

Outlook: No need to roster him in redraft and I’m relegating him to the backup category for next week

Injury Issues

Darrynton Evans (RB)
D’Andre Swift (RB)
Laviska Shenault (WR)

Backup – not this year without an injury

Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
Jalen Hurts (QB) – 1 snap, 0 pass attempts, 1 carry for 6 yards. Is it time?!
Jacob Eason (QB) – inactive
James Morgan (QB) – inactive
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – inactive
Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – 5 snaps, 3 carries, 3 yards
DeeJay Dallas (RB) – 7 snaps, 1 carry for 13 yards, 2 targets for 2 catches and 19 yards
AJ Dillon (RB) – COVID-IR still
Lynn Bowden (RB) – inactive
Devin Duvernay (WR) – 13 snaps (lowest since week 3), 2 targets for 1 catch and 5 yards
Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
Quintez Cephus (WR) – 17 snaps, 2 targets for 1 catch and 9 yards
Van Jefferson (WR) – 4 snaps, 1 target for 1 catch, 7 yards and a Touchdown!

Special Tight End Category

Devin Asiasi – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Cole Kmet – Bye. Not fantasy relevant
Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Dalton Keene – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Adam Trautman – 32 snaps, 1 target for 1 catch and 19 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Harrison Bryant – 39 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant
Albert Okwuegbunam – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Colby Parkinson – inactive. Not fantasy relevant
Brycen Hopkins – inactive. Not fantasy relevant

Start, Stash or Stink

Not including the injured and obvious backup guys, here’s who you can Start, who you should Stash on your bench and who should be Stinking up the waiver wire.

Start

Quarterback – Justin Herbert

Running Back – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, James Robinson, JK Dobbins

Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb

Tight End – N/A

Stash

Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa

Running Back – Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor

Wide Receiver – Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, KJ Hamler, Michael Pittman Jr, Jerry Jeudy