Keon Coleman 2024 Dynasty Rookie Profile
Keon Coleman 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Profile
Position: WR
School: Florida State
Class: Junior
Date of Birth: May 17, 2003
Height: 6-4 Weight: 215 lbs
Athletic Testing
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Bio
Keon Coleman attended Opelousas Catholic High School in Louisiana where he shined in both basketball and football. As a four-star recruit, he received offers from more than 40 schools, including Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Miami, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and others. He committed to play both basketball and football at Michigan State as part of the 2021 recruiting class. As a freshman, he played in 10 games, catching seven passes for 50 yards and one touchdown. After the season, he appeared in six games for the basketball team.
Coleman started opposite senior Jayden Reed in 2022. In 12 games, he caught 58 passes for 798 yards and seven touchdowns. He was named third-team all-conference. After the season, Coleman entered the transfer portal where he ranked as the No. 4 available wide receiver in the nation. He chose to go to Florida State where he led the team with 50 receptions for 658 yards and 11 scores. That was enough to earn first-team all-ACC at wide receiver, all-purpose, specialist.
College Stats
Keon Coleman College Stats Courtesy of sports-reference
Positives
+Size
+Plays physical
+Ball Skills
+Contested catches
+Catch Radius
+Release; Little issue beating press coverage
+Impressive lateral movement for his size
+YAC
+25 punt returns in 2023
+44% receiving touchdown share
+31% Dominator Rating
+Age 19 breakout
+Early Declare
Negatives
-Lacks top-end speed
-Some routes need refining
-College production is underwhelming
-Accounted for just 18% of the team’s receiving yards in 2023
-Relies a bit too much on contested/spectacular catches (34% of his targets were contested in 2023, per PFF)
-1.90 yards per route run for his college career (PFF)
-1.51 yards per team pass attempt
Highlight Reel
Archetype: Possession WR
NFL Comp: TBD
Draft Projection: First Round
Bottom Line:
Keon Coleman is a physically gifted wide receiver. Standing at 6-4, 215 lbs, he has the body of a prototypical X-receiver in the NFL. He has good hands with incredible ball skills, and impressive lateral movement for a guy of his stature. Coleman thrives in contested catch situations. He presents his quarterback with a target that can be trusted to win the 50-50 balls like he’s not even covered. That makes for a dangerous weapon in the red zone and on vertical patterns. Coleman also puts his size and physicality to good use at the line of scrimmage, easily shaking press coverage more often than not.
While he can run the full route tree and win on all three levels, Coleman does have room to grow in the routes department. Some wasted movement and unharnessed footwork, paired with the lack of true deep speed can sometimes make creating separation difficult. His raw physical tools and already signs of improvement from his sophomore to junior seasons, do provide some hope that he can continue to develop this area of his game, though.
Scouts drool over Coleman’s athleticism, size, and overall physical traits of the wide receiver position. But, the production numbers don’t seem to match the scouting reports. If all you do is read the film grades and watch the highlight clips, you’re going to love Keon Coleman. But the numbers tell a different story.
Coleman was an underwhelming producer in both of his seasons as a starter—one at Michigan State and one at Florida State. He combined for just 1,506 receiving yards in his three collegiate seasons. To put that into perspective, LSU WR Malik Nabers had 1,569 receiving yards in 2023 alone. And sure, you could place blame on subpar quarterback play, an offense that isn’t built around the passing game, etc. That may explain the lack of raw numbers, but it still doesn’t answer why he accounted for just 18% of the team’s receiving yards in 2023. Or had just 1.51 yards per team pass attempt. Or 1.9 yards per route run for the duration of his career. This is a problem.
Some analysts are obsessing over his incredible contested catch ability. And while I agree he is phenomenal in those situations and his spectacular catches sure are fun to watch, it begs the question, why is he in so many contested situations? Can he not create separation? Because if you’re struggling to create separation at the college level, it’s certainly not going to get easier in the NFL. Take this quote from Sam Monson of PFF: “If making contested catches is a part of your skill set, that’s great. If it’s the best thing you bring to the table? We might have a problem.” I think we might have a problem. 34% of Coleman’s targets were considered contested in 2023, per PFF. In comparison to the other top prospects in the class, Marvin Harrison Jr had a 26.3% contested target rate, Rome Odunze 20.6%, and Malik Nabers 17.2%.
Coleman is certainly a polarizing prospect. The upside is absolutely there, though. He is great at the catch point and he gets a lot out of his natural athletic ability. And we have to remember he is still just 20 years old with time to develop his game further. Truthfully, his ceiling is about as high as it gets if he puts it all together. There is no doubting that. But the concerns are fair. Like I said, the scouting reports will make you think this guy is the next star wideout in the NFL. In reality, you can’t make a facts and numbers-based case that makes this guy look like a great prospect.
Still, the draft capital is likely going to be there with some NFL team falling in love with the upside and raw talent. In dynasty, I would love to take a shot on a guy like this in the late second round of rookie drafts. However, I expect his rookie draft ADP will wind up somewhere between picks 10-14 which will make him a fade in my book.
NEXT: Marvin Harrison Jr 2024 Dynasty Rookie Profile
Resources: DLF, PlayerProfiler, PFN, PFF, TDN
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