Justin Jefferson Szn: Week 11 Rookie Stock Take

Justin Jefferson Szn: Week 11 Rookie Stock Update

What a week for the rookies.

At one end of the scale you have D’Andre Swift taking over the Lions backfield, Antonio Gibson getting multiple touchdowns, Chase Claypool finding the end zone again and again, and Justin Jefferson rocketing to the moon on Monday night football.

At the other end, we have Zack Moss in a terrible Bills running game, Henry Ruggs getting nothing to work with, and Jonathan Taylor. Oh Jonathan, whatever will we do with you? I started this week’s article with one mantra “I WILL NOT DROP JONATHAN TAYLOR TO THE BACKUP CATEGORY”. Well, he’s still in my ‘Starters’ section but read on to see if he is a Start, Stash or Stink.

As always, I’m going to look at how the opportunities are developing for the rookies and speculate on their outlook for the rest of the season.

Here is the Week 11 rookie stock update.

Starters

Quarterback

Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Tua Tagovailoa

Joe Burrow

0 – Burrow had 0 rush attempts for the first time in his career, including two years at LSU. Burrow’s bigger games this season have come when he’s carried the ball himself at least a handful of times
53-percent – that was his completion rate in this game, and that’s his NFL career low. Pittsburgh are one of the better defenses he’ll face though, and Burrow is now top 10 in Quarterback pressures
QB18 – that’s his points-per-game position so far and although he’s had a few big weeks, it’s somewhat uninspiring

Outlook: There’s no doubting the talent but he needs some better protection around him if he’s going to utilise those weapons effectively. If he’s not going to be more mobile and get yards on the ground, he’s a QB2

Justin Herbert

187 – week 10 was the first time that Herbert failed to top 250 yards in a game so far
26.7-percent – Herbert has been pressured more than all but one Quarterback (Daniel Jones) this season but he’s still completed 67-percent of his passes, on pace for 4,666 yards and 38 passing touchdowns
QB8 – despite throwing for less than 200 yards, he is the QB8 on the week and the QB5 on a points-per-game basis

Outlook: I don’t know if this counts as the ‘down game’ that we were waiting for but if it is then sign me up for that floor any day of the week! Set him and forget him – top 10 QB easy

Tua Tagovailoa

5 – that’s five passing touchdowns in his first three games, a solid start and one that I’m sure can continue (especially considering how quickly that ball flies out of his hand!)
10.6 – Tua’s Intended Air Yards per Attempt has gone from 5.4 to 8.2 and now 10.6. He’s clearly getting more confident and finding his rhythm
To the left, to the left – ok, this is just a personal nuance for me. I just can’t get used to a left-handed Quarterback. Every time he shapes up to throw, I think he’s pulling some Patrick Mahomes backwards/sideways trick throw. I’ll get there, I just need some time…

Outlook: He’s settling in nicely and really starting to find a groove. He’s not a starter in 1 QB leagues just yet but enjoy the ride everyone

Running Back

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (BYE)
Jonathan Taylor
Antonio Gibson
Joshua Kelley
D’Andre Swift
JK Dobbins
James Robinson
Cam Akers
Zack Moss
La’Mical Perine (BYE)

Week 10 One-to-Watch: Jonathan Taylor

*Jonathan Taylor*
Snaps	17 (24-percent)	Last Week: 21 (31-percent)
Carries	7 (24-percent)	Last Week: 6 (29-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	4 (50-percent)	Last Week: 3 (100-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (40-percent)	Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total)
Targets	2 (5-percent)	Last Week: 2 (5-percent of team total)

24 – since the bye, Taylor’s snap count has steadily decreased and has now hit a new low of 24-percent
9 – 9 opportunities (carries + targets) to go with his 8 opportunities last week. It’s just not enough volume for any kind of production and he’s mostly getting those opportunities in short yardage situations
Hot hand – the Colts have a clear strategy at the running back position. They give all three guys a go early in the game and whoever has the hot hand gets to dominate the touches. And it seems to work so it isn’t going to change any time soon

Outlook: He continues to slide until we see something change. The Colts have three backs and ride the hot hand. The problem is that Taylor hasn’t shown his hand to be more than luke warm yet. I’m holding him in the hope of a miracle but he’s not leaving my bench unless I’m desperate

*Antonio Gibson*
Snaps	33 (38-percent)	Last Week: 25 (46-percent of team total)
Carries	13 (50-percent)	Last Week: 6 (67-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	3 (50-percent)	Last Week: 3 (100-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (67-percent)	Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total)
Targets	4 (7-percent)	Last Week: 3 (8-percent of team total)

2 – this is the first time that Gibson has put up multiple touchdowns in his young career and he continues to show his ability to be the main back
Gamescript – Washington ran a lot of plays in this one and threw the ball a lot. This continues to favour JD McKissic although he is starting to line up as a receiver more, leaving Gibson on the field even on some of those clear passing downs. He’ll continue to benefit most from a positive gamescript but is hopefully finding his way on to the field more in other situations too
Schedule – coming up next for Gibson are the Bengals and the Cowboys so you’d be hoping for the gamescript to favour him in those. Some tough games after that but he gets the Panthers in week 16…

Outlook: He continues to be an RB2 where he needs a touchdown to give you a good fantasy day. I’m trying to trade for him ahead of that week 16 game

*Joshua Kelley*
Snaps	17 (27-percent)	Last Week: 43 (54-percent)
Carries	7 (24-percent)	Last Week: 9 (29-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	1 (10-percent)	Last Week: 0
Opp 1-10 carries	1 (14-percent)	Last Week: 0
Targets	0	Last Week: 5 (12-percent of team total)

21 – on his 7 opportunities, he mustered 21 yards. He’s just not getting it done
0 – that’s how many times you can be confident of starting him. You’re better off grabbing rotational pieces off other teams if you’re desperate

Outlook: Even if the entire running back room explodes and he’s last-man standing, the Chargers will still find someone off the street to produce at a better rate than Kelley. He shouldn’t be on your roster

*D’Andre Swift*
Snaps	43 (73-percent)	Last Week: 30 (40-percent)
Carries	16 (76-percent)	Last Week: 13 (48-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	0	Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 1 (33-percent of team total)
Targets	5 (15-percent)	Last Week: 5 (11-percent of team total)

Lead Back – before the game, the Lions announced that Swift was going to be the lead back and boy they did not lie. Look at those numbers. 73-percent of snaps, 21 total opportunities including 76-percent of the carries and 5 targets. All career high numbers
149 – his 149 total yards is also a career high to tack on to his touchdown and a 5 catches for a top five PPR performance
Schedule – Carolina and Houston in the next two games are fantastic opportunities for him to further boost his stock, with Green Bay and Tennessee also still ahead. He does have a week 16 matchup against Tampa Bay but the way Swift is playing that won’t matter

Outlook: It’s probably too late to buy him now if you haven’t managed it already, sorry. He’s a high-end RB2 that you can play with confidence

*JK Dobbins*
Snaps	29 (44-percent)	Last Week: 36 (56-percent)
Carries	5 (18-percent)	Last Week: 12 (32-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	1 (33-percent)	Last Week: 3 (27-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0	Last Week: 1 (13-percent of team total)
Targets	2 (6-percent)	Last Week: 2 (9-percent of team total)

7 – with Mark Ingram back and even Justice Hill getting on the field, Dobbins only had 7 opportunities. That’s his lowest since week 5 and led to an underwhelming 14 total yards
Split – whether it’s because he didn’t exploit the opportunity with Ingram out or this is just how Baltimore want to play, this backfield is an ugly split

Outlook: 2020 is not the year for Dobbins and we’ll be looking for some personnel changes in the backfield for 2021 to be much better. No need to roster him in redraft at this stage

*James Robinson*
Snaps	53 (83-percent)	Last Week: 50 (72-percent)
Carries	23 (100-percent)	Last Week: 25 (93-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	1 (100-percent)	Last Week: 6 (86-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 1 (100-percent of team total)
Targets	5 (14-percent)	Last Week: 2 (5-percent of team total)

Workhorse – Robinson continues to be the sole workhorse running back in this Jacksonville team and got 100-percent of carries in this one (not a QB scramble, not a kneel-down, nothing else). That’s been good for 20+ carries in three straight games now
Targets – I raised a concern last week about his targets with Luton under centre and Robinson not getting a catch. This week we saw that bounce back to five targets and two catches. The weather was bad in this one though so this could be a product of necessity. Keep a close eye on Robinson’s target volume
Playoff Schedule – this is a concern for me. I love Robinson’s production but he gets the Ravens and Bears in weeks 15 and 16. That’s a problem

Outlook: Robinson is very much deserving of a top 12 running back and you can play him there to help get you in to your playoffs. If you’re already set for the playoffs and your transfer deadline hasn’t passed, see if you can trade him for a similar player with a better schedule

*Cam Akers*
Snaps	18 (26-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Carries	10 (34-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Redzone carries	5 (56-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Opp 1-10 carries	2 (40-percent)	Last Week: BYE
Targets	0	Last Week: BYE

26 – 26-percent of snaps is his highest since week one and Sean McVay finally made good on his promise to use him more
3 headed monster – however, this is still very much a three-headed monster and although Akers led the team in carries it wasn’t enough volume for worthwhile production
High value touches – the fantasy football community talks a lot about high value touches being goal-line looks and targets. Well that’s exactly what Akers DIDN’T get. He did get some work inside the red zone but he was the only one of the three backs not to get a touchdown or a target

Outlook: Some are touting this as the beginning of Akers taking hold of the backield, and that could be the case. But I’m not buying it and I don’t see Akers as anything more than a hopeful stash

*Zack Moss*
Snaps	39 (53-percent)	Last Week: 38 (56-percent)
Carries	7 (39-percent)	Last Week: 9 (47-percent of team total)
Redzone carries	0	Last Week: 2 (29-percent of team total)
Opp 1-10 carries	0 (team total = 0)	Last Week: 1 (25-percent of team total)
Targets	2 (4-percent)	Last Week: 2 (5-percent of team total)

30-40 – other than his first game back from injury, Moss’ snap count has been consistently in that range and that’s what we should expect from him
9 – after Moss taking the lead in week 9, week 10 was back to a 50-50 split between him and Singletary. Singletary gets more targets and Moss gets more carries but with only 9 opportunities each, it’s not going to lead to much. The Bills don’t run the ball well and so you still don’t get the production you need for consistent fantasy numbers
Schedule – I keep saying it but it’s important to reiterate. Buffalo’s schedule for running backs is brutal from here out including the 49ers, Steelers and Broncos after their week 11 bye

Outlook: I suggested last week to try to sell him before it was too late. It’s too late. I wouldn’t stress about holding him through his bye week, that roster spot is too important at this stage

Wide Receiver

Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb (BYE)
Brandon Aiyuk
Justin Jefferson
Tee Higgins
Henry Ruggs
Chase Claypool
Denzel Mims (BYE)
KJ Hamler
Jalen Reagor
Michael Pittman Jr
Gabriel Davis
Bryan Edwards

Jerry Jeudy

17-percent – his 8 targets was a 17-percent target share. That wasn’t first on his team but it was second, he’s getting plenty of volume
50-percent – seriously, this dude just cannot get above a 50-percent catch rate and still averaging 49-percent on the season
Two games – that’s how many times he’s been a top-36 PPR receiver this year. One of those was last week against a dreadful Falcons defense, the other was against the Jets

Outlook: You can throw him out there in a plus plus matchup but otherwise there’s no need to hold him in most redraft leagues

Brandon Aiyuk

14 targets – with a banged up team around him Aiyuk is the WR1, WR2 and WR3. So his 14 targets accounted for 36-percent of the targets, to add to his 10 targets (28-percent) from week 8
6.1 yards – his average depth of target in this one was his lowest since week 4 but with his YAC (yards after catch) ability, that won’t be a problem
Playoff Schedule – he has some difficult games ahead but gets the Cowboys (31st against WR) and Cardinals (23rd against WR) in the fantasy playoffs

Outlook: This kind of volume and the likely touchdown upside makes him a WR2

Justin Jefferson

10 targets, 8 receptions – and 135 yards. Now that’s more like it Mr Jefferson. He’s had a couple of down games but that production is exactly what we’ve been looking for
Passing volume – the equation is pretty simple. When the Vikings pass the ball, Jefferson gets plenty of opportunity and turns it in to solid production. It’s the run-heavy games that hurt him, not his talent
Schedule problem – the schedule problem facing him for the next few weeks is that the Vikings face some run-friendly defenses in Dallas, Carolina and Jacksonville. However, they then face Tampa Bay, Chicago and New Orleans who are all solid against the run and that could open things up for Jefferson through the fantasy playoffs

Outlook: You have to play the matchups at this point and put your money where your mouth is on gamescript. I’m hedging my bets in the WR2 range knowing he can win me a week or lose me one, but with excitement about what the fantasy playoffs could bring

Week 10 One-to-Watch: Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins

9 targets – two weeks in a row now that Higgins has had 9 targets, this time getting over 100 yards and a touchdown
1,206 yards – Higgins 16 game pace off 122 targets (not including week one). That would have been 5th in yards in 2019
WR22 – that’s where he sits on the season so far, and that’s despite not really having a role in week 1

Outlook: You can play him with confidence as a WR2. He could end the season as the leading rookie receiver

Henry Ruggs

4 targets – that equals his highest since week one. That’s not going to cut it
62-percent of snaps – his lowest since week two. With Bryan Edwards back in the mix now, Ruggs isn’t on the field all the time and that further hurts his stock
WR94 – that’s behind the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus, Rashard Higgins and Allen Lazard who has only played 3 games!

Outlook: If for some reason you’re still holding him in redraft then you haven’t been reading this piece for some time now. Drop him please

Chase Claypool

60-percent of snaps – that’s his lowest since week two but still third at the receiver position on the team
132 targets – that’s his 16 game pace based on the last four games and that’s with the rest of the pass-catchers fit and playing. It’s only good for a pace of 764 yards with his yards/target at its lowest when Diontae Johnson is on the field
Jacksonville – another smash matchup for all of the Steelers receivers in week 11. Keep playing him

Outlook: He’s the lowest of the three Steelers receivers as he doesn’t get the consistent yardage totals, but his touchdown potential gives him great upside. He’s a WR2 against Jacksonville in week 11, high-end WR3 rest of season

KJ Hamler

21-percent – 10 targets for a 21-percent target share is exactly what he got in week 9 as well
Alpha – Hamler is getting the most snaps of all receivers and the most targets. Denver have most of their pass-catchers available to them now and it’s Hamler who is establishing himself as the main man (although Tim Patrick did get ejected during the game)
50 yards and 0 touchdowns – despite the volume, it’s not much of a return

Outlook: Like Jeudy, his volume is great to see and definitely a player to keep an eye in dynasty leagues. But this offense isn’t producing enough attacking returns to make any of their pass-catchers worth owning in all but deeper redraft leagues

Michael Pittman Jr

8 targets – led his team and was one more than his career high from the previous week. All on 81-percent of snaps, which easily led the other receivers
101 yards – a much better return as Pittman is fully up to speed now. He’s looking very much like the number one receiver they drafted him to be
WR touchdowns – the Colts still don’t throw touchdowns to their wide receivers and that hurts the upside of Pittman

Outlook: There’s a rush to grab him off waivers after the volume and yardage in Thursday night primetime. He’s still only a WR3 for me, not going to win your league but could give you a stable floor in PPR

Gabriel Davis

4th in snaps – he’s 4th on the team in snaps but still gets a healthy 51-percent
3 targets – and 0 catches
Not this week – he has an occasionally good game, but not this week

Outlook: He’s inconsistent and unpredictable. There’s no need to roster him in redraft but he’s always a sneaky cheap option in DFS

Bryan Edwards

28-percent of snaps – as noted under Ruggs above, the Raiders are rotating their receivers somewhat now they’re all available and Edwards was fourth in snaps at the wide receiver position
1 target – he caught it at least and got himself a mighty 16 yards. So lets be glass half-full and say 100-percent catch rate…

Outlook: No need to roster him in redraft

Injury Issues

Darrynton Evans (RB)
Laviska Shenault (WR)

Backup – not this year without an injury

Jordan Love (QB) – inactive
Jalen Hurts (QB) – 0 pass attempts, 2 carries for -1 yards. Stop forcing it Doug!
Jacob Eason (QB) – inactive
James Morgan (QB) – Bye
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB) – inactive
Anthony McFarland Jr (RB) – inactive
DeeJay Dallas (RB) – fell behind Alex Collins but did have 22 snaps. Only 2 carries for 8 yards, 3 targets for 2 catches and 23 yards
AJ Dillon (RB) – COVID-IR still
Lynn Bowden (RB) – inactive
Devin Duvernay (WR) – 36 snaps (v. healthy), 3 targets for 3 catches and 45 yards
Antonio Gandy-Golden (WR) – Injured Reserve
Quintez Cephus (WR) – 30 snaps (Golladay out), 2 targets for 1 catch and 10 yards
Van Jefferson (WR) – 13 snaps, 1 target for 1 catch and 15 yards

Special Tight End Category

Devin Asiasi – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Cole Kmet – 35 snaps, 3 targets for 1 catch and 7 yards. Not fantasy relevant
Josiah Deguara – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Dalton Keene – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Adam Trautman – 27 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant
Harrison Bryant – 36 snaps, 0 targets. Not fantasy relevant (especially now Hooper is back)
Albert Okwuegbunam – Injured Reserve. Not fantasy relevant
Colby Parkinson – inactive. Not fantasy relevant
Brycen Hopkins – inactive. Not fantasy relevant

Start, Stash or Stink

Not including the injured and obvious backup guys, here’s who you can Start, who you should Stash on your bench and who should be Stinking up the waiver wire.

Start

Quarterback – Joe Burrow & Justin Herbert

Running Back – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, James Robinson

Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy, Brandon Aiyuk

Tight End – N/A

Stash

Quarterback – Tua Tagovailoa

Running Back – Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor, JK Dobbins

Wide Receiver – CeeDee Lamb, Laviska Shenault, Denzel Mims, Jalen Reagor, KJ Hamler, Michael Pittman Jr