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The Case Against Joe Burrow
Are you thinking about drafting Joe Burrow in fantasy this year? If so, let me show you why that’s not a good idea. If not, we’re already on the same page!
I know, I know. Burrow is the new shiny toy that everyone wants to play with. I don’t hate the guy, and I’m not denying his talent or his situation. He’s a great young player with a plethora of weapons at his disposal. However, it’s important to identify potential bad values. If you are high on every player and have no convictions, you probably won’t do very well in fantasy. The reason I don’t like Burrow at his current price comes down to efficiency, and the likelihood of him repeating last year’s success while paying off his draft price. He currently goes as the QB7 on Underdog Fantasy, with an ADP of 69.2. Before I try to predict Burrow’s upcoming campaign, let’s briefly recap his past season.
Season Review
Burrow had a lot of things go right for him in 2021. He finished as the QB8 overall, and QB10 in FPPG (fantasy points per game). Burrow was fortunate to be 5th in the league in drop rate, meaning his passes were only dropped 5.2% of the time. This was 1.7% lower than the league average (6.9%). This is something I don’t expect to change much next year, as the only real switch the Bengals made was swapping C.J. Uzomah for Hayden Hurst at tight end. The majority of the receiving corps should return for Cincinnati. Still, it’s worth noting that Burrow was luckier than most in this area. Burrow also benefited from having two players in the top 10 in CROE (catch rate over expected) according to Next Gen Stats. Both Tee Higgins and Ja’Maar Chase caught their targets at a rate higher than they were supposed to. Logic and variation would tell us that, more times than not, Burrow won’t get quite as lucky when throwing to his receivers next season.
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Trending Downward?
Efficiency is ultimately what drives QB scoring, so it’s an important factor to consider when evaluating the position. In a somewhat disappointing rookie season, Burrow sported a TD percentage of just 3.5% (28th in the league). The league average that year was 4.8%, so variation dictated that Burrow’s numbers would regress to the mean in 2021. They far surpassed that mark last season, as Joe Cool was 3rd among all qualifying QBs (min. 200 pass attempts) with a TD rate of 6.5%. While this was very impressive for the sophomore out of LSU, it is difficult for any QB to maintain this high rate from season to season. For reference, here is how each of the top 5 QBs in TD% in 2020 fared over the past two years.
What do these numbers tell us? It shouldn’t surprise anyone, but the data clearly shows there is a direct correlation between TD percentage and fantasy points among QBs. It makes sense. Touchdowns are worth more points than anything else in fantasy. Touchdowns are variant from year to year, and even game to game. This is why when players have high rates one year, it’s more likely they regress the following year. There are, of course, other factors to fantasy success. As we can see with Kirk Cousins, his TD rate dropped, yet he still finished 11th among QBs. This is because he cut down on the interceptions. Jackson and Tannehill had a fair amount of success on the ground in ‘20, and their ‘21 production tailed off when they didn’t accumulate as many points from rushing.
Super Bowl Losers
Another relevant piece of discussion is the trend of QBs who lose in the Super Bowl. Historically, QBs perform worse the following season after losing in the big game. Let’s take a look at the last 10 QBs to lose the Super Bowl, and how they performed amongst QBs the following year.
There are many pieces of information we can take away from this. First, Tom Brady doesn’t follow conventional logic. We can pretty much throw him out when trying to make an argument. He is a god that defies everything we think we know about fantasy football. Colin Kaepernick finished as a better overall QB after losing the Super Bowl, but that’s mainly due to the fact he didn’t start the first half of the season for San Francisco. He averaged just 16.5 FPPG in 2013 after averaging 23.7 FPPG in his 10 starts in 2012 (playoffs included). If you exclude those 3 samples from the graph, every QB either stayed the same or performed worse in the following season, with some falling off a major cliff. There are plenty of reasons why each of these drop-offs happened, and I don’t believe Burrow will suffer a Newton- or Ryan- esque collapse. However, based on everything I’ve said so far, it appears Burrow is due for some regression.
2022 Opponents
To top all of this off, the Bengals face the 3rd most difficult schedule in the league in 2022 based on strength of schedule. Burrow also faces the 4th toughest QB schedule based on his opponent’s performance vs opposing QBs last year. Lastly, his playoff opponents are the Buccaneers (Week 15), Patriots (Week 16) and Bills (Week 17). The Bucs were middle of the pack last year, while the Pats and Bills were the two stingiest defenses against fantasy QBs. It’s hard to trust Burrow in the 3 biggest games of the fantasy season when these are his opponents.
Recap
In case you skipped the article just to get to this point, I’ll summarize it for you: Burrow is still a quality starter for fantasy, but he is priced too high. His numbers from last year indicate regression, as do past trends. He should be going 2-3 rounds later. So, unless he falls to that point I won’t have any shares. I always like to keep an open mind in fantasy, but unless something big changes here, I’m out on Burrow for 2022.
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